ARM Hldgs.(ARM)...

Riz

Experienced member
Well, after getting in at 264 and out for +15 last time, I traded arm a few times on intraday or intrahour basis...arm got strong support at 200 and resistance at 220 at the moment...it's a sentiment driven share, but very strong one...short or long I wouldn't hold a longer time position on arm at the moment...as for the chart I wouldn't read too much on it as to establishing long term targets, till we get a trendy market on techs...

One other thing is not to get carried away with shorting enthusiasm, it can also hurt, especially on shares like arm...and once more, the sentiment in US is not like the one in UK at all, they are looking for signals of future recovery...whereas UK is full of doomsters...watch it, you wouldnt want to be short on any techs when you wake up one morning and find out that Nasdaq futures are up big time...good luck

Riz
 
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Hi Riz
I concur with your view especially the point about US sentiment being different.
Having talked to many Americans, i have worked with, it was apparent that they are far more dependant on direct involvement in stocks than the average Brit for their pensions. It sounds ridiculous but their stated goal was to achieve a portfolio of a least $1 mil for their retirement.
Yanks talking big ? maybe but i can understand their desperation for market reversal.
I,m not talking about traders here but ordinary company employees who depend on their share options etc. Maybe thats the reason for Greenies very risky rate cutting ... keep the voters happy and sod the threat of inflation ... can't really see Brown doing that can you?

Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
Thanks Steve for adding your observations..

ARM up +27 (13.2%) at 232 breaking through resistance on big volume of 30,564,346 and starting to fill the gap down area...previous strong support level at 245 may turn into resistance...once broken 260-5 could be the next resistance level...

I didn't get in ARM today as I was too busy piling in baby PON :)

Riz
 
Reporting interims on the 23/7/01, if no worse than predicted, will lift the price no doubt, still a bit of a gamble, is it worth holding as any price increase will be to quick to be taken advantage of, usually.
Good luck
Col
 

Riz

Experienced member
Hi Col,

You're right it's risky to hold all the way to interims, but it's worth to hold so long as the market sentiment is +ve and if one has the means making use of intraday or short term bounces...that's been my position on arm for a while...

best wishes

Riz
 

Ian56

Junior member
I closed arm short at 2.03 yesterday. Looking to short around 2.40 this pm or Monday as long the US is not higher at 3pm.

Regards,
Ian
 

Riz

Experienced member
Well Done, Ian..nice timing

Up today +2.75 at 225.5 on announcement that ARM has extended its product licence with Samsung to cover three more semiconductor cores, including ARM's high-end ARM-10 microprocessor...

Riz
 

y2k

Junior member
Demon

Sorry couldnt resist this post, look whos mentioned at the bottom of ARM's latest news release.....

RNS Number:0910H
ARM Holdings PLC
18 July 2001

18 July 2001

Arm Holdings Plc ("the Company")

Disclosure of Interest in Share Capital

The Company received notification on 17th July 2001 by The Capital Group
Companies Inc., on behalf of its affiliates Capital Guardian Trust Company,
Capital International Limited, Capital International S.A., Capital
International, Inc. and Capital Research and Management Company, that, as at
11 July 2001, The Capital Group Companies, Inc. has an interest in 41,179,618
ordinary shares of the Company representing 4.1% of the issued share capital.
The shares are registered as follows:

Holder Number of shares

State Street Nominees Limited 3,547,700

Bank of New York Nominees 3,151,423

Chase Nominees Limited 16,327,236

BT Globenet Nominees Limited 93,900

Midland Bank plc 4,730,458

Cade & Co 414,000

Bankers Trust 3,854,400

Barclays Bank 525,500

Citibank London 1,015,700

Nortrust Nominees 6,037,857

Royal Bank of Scotland 50,100

MSS Nominees Limited 146,000

State Street Bank & Trust Co 16,100

National Westminster Bank 154,400

Citibank NA 27,400

HSBC Bank plc 80,500

ROY Nominees Limited 16,600

Mellon Nominees (UK) Limited 45,500

Morgan Guaranty 18,000

Lloyds Bank 121,900

Vidacos Nominees Limited 142,900

Deutsche Bank AG 462,000

KAS UK 36,344

Bank One London 85,000

Credit Suisse London Branch 59,300

RBSTB Nominees 19,400

Demon 1000
 

Riz

Experienced member
Up 33 (16.4%) to 234 after reassuring the market with top-of-the-range second-quarter numbers and a reiteration that full-year expectations would be met.

"46 pct rise in second-quarter pretax profits to 12.2 mln stg and a 56 pct jump in revenues to 36 mln, exceeding most analysts' forecasts. Brokers had expected sales of 32.5-34.3 mln stg and pretax of 9.7-12.5 mln stg."

Saying strong sales of licences and development systems allowed it to "remain confident" in its second half outlook, despite predicting flat royalty revenues for the rest of the year.

"It's all you could have asked for given the current environment," commented Robertson Stephens analyst Gary Kelly, who reiterated a 'buy'.

Deutsche Bank was also repeating 'buy' advice, as did joint house broker ABN Amro.

Still Credit Suisse First Boston, UBS Warburg and Teather & Greenwood reiterated 'hold' advice, while Williams De Broe kept a 'sell'.

Well ARM proved once again it's a strong share...

Riz
 
think this sums it up :-

The Sceptic : Arm Holdings
23/07/2001 14:08:46

A Dow Jones Newswires column
by Robb M. Stewart in London
 Come on in, the water's great.
Not the sort of line you hear from
traders in tech stocks these troubled
days, but it appears to sum up the
thinking of investors hoping to surf
Arm Holdings' shares back to the
heights of last year.
And, to be sure, the British designer
of semiconductors does seem to be
weathering the downturn in prospects
for chip companies.
Today, Arm managed to top pretax
profit expectations for its second
quarter. And, with two quarters of
earnings visible, it says it remains
comfortable with full-year expectations
penciled in by the market.
This is a continuation of a solid
performance, with diluted EPS up 23%
for the half year and 14% over the
first quarter. It's backed by cash
generation - a balance of #94.8m at the
end of the second quarter against
#78.4m in the first.
And all this despite an estimated 20%
drop in unit shipments and 23% decline
in royalty revenue between the fourth
quarter last year and the first this
year.
So how did Arm manage to post such
healthy results? Simply put, Arm says
it saw an offsetting rise in income
from licensing of its chip systems and
sales of development systems.
Even as chip makers such as Infineon
Technologies and others are hit by
slumping demand and prices for their
products, Arm insists no one can afford
to let up on R&D investment. That means
turning to Arm or risk losing any
technological edge when a recovery does
occur.
So, with the shares down some 80% on
last year's peak and roughly 65% on
January's high, surely investors are on
to a good thing here?
Before dipping toes, it might pay to
consider what could yet go wrong.
While Arm claims up to two months'
visibility where others appear blind,
the company is to a large extent
looking backwards. Because the results
record sales for the previous quarter,
the sector's latest round of quarterly
warnings aren't factored in yet.
Chip inventories are still being
whittled and there's still evidence of
high overcapacity in the semiconductor
industry. This may yet prompt Arm
customers to rein in R&D spending, at
least until there are some signs of
recovery among their own customers.
Also, while Arm now sees less that a
quarter of its revenue from royalties,
the contribution from this area surely
must increase as the business matures.
That may not occur during the current
down-cycle, but it does suggest the
high valuation the stock still trades
on may erode - just look at the hit
royalties have taken so far.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly,
is broader sentiment.
Arm also managed to beat expectations
with its first-quarter results, which
prompted a modest rebound in shares.
But that was eaten away as broader
worries about the tech sector erased
confidence across the board. Eventually
the stock fell even further.
This could happen again following the
second quarter numbers.
According to consensus figures from
JCF Group, Arm ended Friday trading on
a P/E of 61X current year expectations.
That premium falls to 45.7X for 2002
and 35.3X for 2003.
If Arm continues to hold up earnings,
it stands to be one of the first stocks
to race away.
But with its customers still operating
in the dark and industry sentiment
still in the doldrums, there's nothing
firm yet to suggest investors should
abandon a more cautious wait-and-see
approach.

14:08 Jul 23 2001

Best to trade this one ala Riz.

Steve
 
Caution be blowed .... i've let it run.
I wonder how high this time before the inevitable bad news from elsewhere gives the mmanipulaters an excuse to hammer the price for the benefit of the fat cats and hopefully us.
S
 
Sold at 263p today a 20% gain, its good enough for me, crap news over the weekend and i'm right, a good press and i'm wrong. As the nas closed up a bit ARM should open higher on Monday all things being equal, who can predict, rather have the cash, can always get back in again.
Good Luck
Col
 

Riz

Experienced member
Up +13 today at 262 on a fairly high volume of 16,365,671... once again proving its strength and that it's not an ordinary tech dog...from here up mostly depends on the general sentiment, if favourable it might turn 300 back into support, if not 250 will still be a strong support level, armed scored enough on its own...well done Steve, Col and any others who got in earlier...

Riz
 
In again at 267p the other day and doing nicely, up 7.77% on the nasdaq at the close..... if ARM breaks 300p tomorrow where do the charts forcast the next resistance.....Slung my charting software, so i'm a bit in the dark..... any sugestions of accurate well programed software to use for a Mac or pc, used trendsoft, but can use pc based software if it works with virtual pc 4.0, i know Sharescope.... Omnitrader and Metastock do.
Thanks. Col
 
Still letting it run, its gone past the point where i would normally take profit ( ask Riz :) ) so happy now keeping a trailing stop.
I'm feeling greedy and think ( hope ) maybe 350 is possible ... please.

Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
Well now that it's hit and bounced down from 300 which I referred to right at the start of its up movement from 200, I advised today in the chatroom to take profit and wait for retracement to buy them back cheaper, it turned out to be a right prediction as it ended the day at 294...intraday it formed 2 tops at 298.5 and bounced up 4 times at 293...

As I said in my first reply to those shorting it, arm is a sentiment driven, strong share...It's still strong and sentiment is still +ve...it's been great to me only today I made +12.5 on an intrahour trade...

Still from here on, depending on how it behaves next time it hits 300, we've got to be careful and not to get carried away, namely keep securing profit...

I'd watch 320 if 300 broken through strongly and sell on resistance and buy back on support from now on, it's not a one-way street...but enjoy :) (I am sure Steve does:))

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
Hehe...I know Steve was smiling when working out the profit :)

But I hope everyone did take profits when it broke through 320 and pulled back to rebreak it down this time...and rebought on dips of course..that's how it works with ARM these days...break through a resistance level, back to retest it if holds another bounce, if not retrace to rebounce at a lower level...I got +5 intraday today...

Ended 13.25 4.5% 307.25 after hitting 328-29 and hovering above 320 for a long while...thus confirming my 320 resistance level also giving us another one (328) to watch...I always get out at the end of the day, but if US closes +ve and I catch them below 310 I might consider more intraday longs on arm tomorrow...

Good Luck and enjoy everyone

Riz
 
Only one intraday Riz ? :)
It was difficult trying to work it out but i sold and bought back at 311.5 for +9 on the day.
I'm obviously more confident than you, or should that read more stupid.
Anyways it gives me a little more leeway tomorrow
Good luck
Steve
 
Back with a smile.....

hi again chaps....

Just back from my 3 weeks in switzerland - ace time - though as I had CNBC I never got completely away from how things were doing - to much temptation to keep an eye on events.

Actually broke a rule of holding shares whilst being away - esp. with results! However, as I only held ARM, I felt reckless - and glad I did!!

I am pleased we got through the 300p barrier today - was a little doubtful about it yesterday! However, whilst i haven't read the news in detail, I gather there was SOME negative news about chip stocks today - yet the Naz closed up. Clearly good news for ARM etc.

Tomorrow is an important day - first in terms of price at resistance levels, but also that many of the indicators are approaching oversold levels that were reached in the April-May rally. If new highs aren't reached, it will be time to leave the ride, but what a fun ride it has been!!

All the best,

Mark
 
 
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