ARM Hldgs.(ARM)...

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Up +32.5 (10.1%) to 352.75 today...on high volume of 12.9m...suggesting further rises may follow...

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
We got further rises too..up +18.75 (5.3%) to 371.5 today...

So what level is arm heading for? Obviously arm is eyeing 400, only may have retracements on the way, over +50 in 2 days...

Interesting to see how the rsi bounced right at 30 line as expected...

Updating the chart for comparison...

Riz
 

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TBS

Well-known member
385 0
From a slightly longer time perspective than many seem to hold around here, ARM looks very dodgy.

Here is your chart with some of my squiggles on it.



The Bull Trend (3)has been broken, along with the immediate support at 370. This has led to a test of the major support area at 320/330 which, so far, has held.

The failure to make new highs or to break back above 420 allowed us to draw in a Phase 1 (Disbelief) long term trend (1). We then move into a more realistic Phase 2 (Reality) bear trend (2), having had a bit of Phase 3 (OmiGodHelp) trend - the unsustainable drops or rises that lead to retracement.

The current retracement has moved back to retest the old support (370) which has now become resistance (Dead Man's Knock) and confirm a more sensible trend angle. I would expect to see a continuance under this trendline to at least retest the 330/20 area, and perhaps beyond to retest the base at 190/200 - ugly stuff.

On the positive side, the only thing that would convince me to go long ARM (depending on yr time horizon) would be a break above 420. I would rather be short than either flat or long, with a stop ready to go on the break of the major trend (1) - so currently a close above 410, but again, it depends on your risk/reward/time ratio as to how you would personally trade this.

But, for me, ARM looks like a sick puppy at the moment.
 
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Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
Arm has been following the $sox quite well since october and closely mirrors BRCM in that period of time.

I personaly would want to watch what the sector was doing ($sox) and the tier 1 Generals to give me a lead.Then you know Arm will probably play catch up with them.
 

TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Trade the chart of whatever you are trading - that doesn't mean ignore the bigger picture, but don't trade ARM off SOX, thats like saying trade Cocoa off CRB.
 

Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
The great thing about the market is that every one has a different point of view.

I myself have always looked at the sector a stock is trading in to be a reasonable indication of what might befall my stock.Like today the $sox fell because of bad news in the sector.

"Chip stocks led the decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) dropped by 3.4 percent, with earnings warnings from Motorola (MOT) and Micron Technology (MU) being among the biggest drags."

Bad news had also come from TQNT in after hours trading on tuesday evening.

It therefore was no suprise that ARM fell about 5% on the day.
But i also agree that if you look at a graph you can always find reasons for a reversal.As in so many cases maybe its worth putting different ideas together rather than loking at one idea only.
 
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TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Hi Naz,

I completely agree with you that it is worth looking at a sector, or an index etc as a rough guide as to what is going on - 'The Big Picture' if you will, but to trade the product in question, you have to trade that product alone. They don't all follow the sector or index trends per se, and certainly there can be a time lag - often enough to cause fiscal pain.

See Nasdaq and Ebay or MKS and FTSE100 as classic examples. (MKS both up and down).

.. and if you trade off the chart (not graph please! ;) ), then the sectors become irrelevant, as does the news etc - but thats probably for another thread :)
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
What you guys on about?

We're day/swing trading arm here and making the calls accordingly, having learnt enough to figure out shares like ARM are too risky to bank long term investments on...

Call was for a move and we got over 50, then retracement expected and we got 20, over all 70 points potential in 3 days, (if I get 1/2 of this I dont care if it looks a sick or a healthy puppy) why should I wait for your 420 and risk going back to below 400 as arm is in the habit of doing it...

Riz
 

TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Riz said:
What you guys on about?

We're day/swing trading arm here and making the calls accordingly, having learnt enough to figure out shares like ARM are too risky to bank long term investments on...

Riz
Ermm Riz,

READ THE POST - it quite clearly states that it refers to a longer time period than most use around here.

However, even day traders make more money trading in the direction of the prevailing trend.

ARM is no more risky than any other share when it comes to a 'long term" investment - it just depends how you define "long term" :) and react to the price action. In the entire history of ARM there have only been 4 trades, 2 long and 2 short.

Anyone trading these 'longer term' positions, even as an overriding hedge against day trading, will have made considerable profits without having to stare at a screen trying to 'nickel and dime' the market.
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Well I suggest you do the same and read back...I'm telling I day/swing trade arm, you're telling me about only 4 trade in the entire history of ARM...is it not obvious I am not interested?

Riz
 

Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
Here's my view point.Its not picking an argument,its just a personal view point,and i realy dont wish to offend anyone.

First of all if any of you are daytrading Arm using charts,then consider seeing me and i'll show you how to REALY daytrade a semi with Nasdaq level 2.What you will see will blow your socks off.If you make money daytrading one semi with a chart imagine what you could do if you had charts and NL2 and some of the best semi's in the world to pick from.

Secondly, i can fully understand why a day trader would not want to hold Arm overnight,because like it or not Arm is a semi and it's not God.If the US semi's sell off after the UK market shuts then Arm will respond the next day.It can be sheer suicide for a UK player to hold a volatile stock overnight if its going to respond to US action.

Thirdly, it is easier for a Nasdaq trader to hold a semi overnight because he is trading a market the world follows for technology.If anything happens he can manage his trade reasonably easier.he also has the option to trade post market and pre market as well.

One trader that i worked with in the US who never made less than $1 million /yr showed me how to scalp swing entries into a second account.That account was then closed down to he couldnt see the wiggles and jiggles.That account was his swing account that he ran using larger stops.He made as much money with that account as he did with his scalping account.

His view was this.If you have got the best system in the world to understand what is happening to your stock,you can take and manage entries that other people just dont believe are possible.Put that entry in a swing account and MANAGE it with larger stops and you can realy fly for days and weeks.The Best example in the last nine months is Genisis(GNSS).His view was that to many traders dont open their minds and only embrace one style of trading.Sometimes putting two or maybe three styles together can pay large dividends.

Finaly if you've ever seen newbie traders in the US they are completely gung ho and raring to go.Where as in the UK we are so reserved and sceptical about anything different it's sad.Surely there must be a happy medium some where.
 
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TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Riz said:
Well I suggest you do the same and read back...I'm telling I day/swing trade arm, you're telling me about only 4 trade in the entire history of ARM...is it not obvious I am not interested?

Riz
Fair enough, I'm not disputing that at all, of course there are more than a few trades in ARM and I realise that you are looking at a shorter time frame, hence why I stated quite clearly. that the post was intended for those with a slightly wider time frame.

If you are day/swing trading it on a daily basis, why did you put up a 7 month chart and not a 1 min chart or tick chart, surely that would have made more sense?

Perhaps others are interested enough to look beyond the end of their nose, no investement style is the be all and end all of trading, and as Nas quite rightly points out, there is some merit in using a combination of 'systems', if nothing else it provides a hedge whilst you play about with the finer points of the price action.

If I have offended your sensibilities in some way, my apologies, it was certainly not the intention.
 

Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
So many traders feel passionately about Arm because it is a great stock and it moves.hence there is the oppertunity to make money both long and short.In all different time frames.

But ask yourself this. On this run up from the end of Sep until the end of November dont you feel that Arm was rising on the coat tails of the US or do you think that Arm took the lead and the US markets followed!

If you believe in the first of these isnt it rather difficult to hold Arm and manage it for a number of days if the market that Arm is following continues to trade for 4 1/2 hours after the UK has shut.It is impossible to manage your trade correctly if you can have no access to trade during those 4 1/2 hours.

People are always cautioned not to fall in love with a stock.Wouldnt it be therefore more beneficial to to pick a semi that moves with the same volatility as Arm but which you had access to whilst the US markets were open.Well just to let you know that there are an enormous amounts of them on the Nasdaq that cost less to trade give you openess to what is happening,and oh yes Arm (ARMHY) is there as well.You wont need a chart because you'll be able to see exactly what goes on by using Nasdaq level 2 direct access.

If you dont know at the moment Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank Alex Brown are the primary and secondary ax.These guys are worth watching on the level 2 screen because they are trading 30% of the stock.Hence they will have a large say in where the stock is going to move to.If you look at a chart you will only see it after they have made their move.

So i reckon that trading it in the UK with no access to your stock for 4 1/2 hours and not knowing who is moving your stock can lead to a disadvantage.But hey when the move is all sorted out it will always appear on a chart afterwards. :)

This is written in a jovial style and not to offend.
 

TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Hi Naz,

I think we are back to time frames again. Sure, if I wanted to succesfully trade UK or US stocks on a daytrading basis, then L2 would be one of my prime tools - along with the tick charts. But on a slightly (and I mean slightly!) wider scale, if the big players want to buy and push the stock, then they will be wanting to give it some momentum which we can then ride - l2 in this case becomes less important, if they are interested in buyng ot take profit, then they will not really want to push the price too hard, and the chances of it breaking resistance or support is less. If they want to spike the stock to gain an advantageous sell position, then they will try to do it with as little volume as possible.

So it all adds to the grist and whether you use L2, L2+chart, L2+ news or no L2 at all, comes back to the time frames and risk/reward ratio - for a chartist, buying and selling on trend/sup and res is as valid if you are trading intra day or longer periods. Personally I trade a mixture of tick charts and longer term positions, none in individual stocks, mainly indices, commods, bonds and currency, all basis futures.

Cheers
 

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