ARM Hldgs.(ARM)...

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hi Steve,

267 is the trough between the 2 tops formed in august, chartwise it will suggest a loss of 60 point or more if broken down end of day basis...

Today it bounced twice from 272 however, so on intraday basis 272 is worth to watch, it might form the basis for further bounces...

I am on the sidelines right now, good luck if you're hunting:)

Riz
 

shelman

1
439 1
OK thanks Riz. 272 was the figure i had in mind and just tested it again. Best to wait but can't see much change this afternoon.
Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Intraday support of 272 broken as ARM closed the day at 268.5 (-8.5)...this leaves us with the question of 2 top at 327 and 267 trough...ARM has nearly touched it I am afraid, if it breaks this support level end of they basis, end of uptrend and beg. of a new downtrend could start with a trend range of 207-267...a bounce up at the current level however will keep the channel 267-327 intact however...

We all know ARM is a strong but sentiment driven share, so it looks like the sentiment and momentum in general will determine which one of those 2 range arm will trade in from now on...

Riz
 

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shelman

1
439 1
Well done Riz, your 267 was almost, if not, exactly spot on.
Now can i have my crystal ball back please.
Hehe :)
Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hehe...almost, that's because the ball was a bit dusty, Steve :)

In the mean time I had another look at it's ARM spot, looks like ARM tested our 267 not only once but many times and bounced up from it every time till it was broken on Thursday causing ARM to go down all the way to 240 where it bounced up only to retest and rebounce from it on Friday all the way to our 267 which acted as resistance and pushed arm back down before it ended the day at 255...

So now we're in the lower channel with 267 as strong resistance and 240 short term strong support if the negative sentiment carries on longer than days, say weeks expect arm to test the bottom of the channel which should be around 207, still arm will be able to retest 267 on any strong market sentiment...

Bollinger Bands widening up suggesting further volatility with bigger movements...

RSI although ticking up still on a down channel below 50 line which also looks to be resistance...

Volume fairly high and slow stochastics ticking up at the oversold area, needs to see a cross over to suggest a proper direction however...

Well now that we got a few numbers to watch, I'd better give the ball back to Steve :)

Riz
 

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shelman

1
439 1
The ball must have got lost in the post , i missed out today, hope you hit it Riz ... what a stock eh!
How high can it go if we get a rally not to mention when the markets do finally begin recovery.
Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Are we still watching it?

Been a long time since I wrote on arm last time. Not that I lost interest though, it's still one of the most popular shares discussed in the chatroom...

ARM has been one of the first to break the doom and gloom sentiment deepened by the Sept 11th incident..it took arm less than 2 weeks to start recovering and forming an uptrend which has continued ever since...taking the price from around 200 to 360, almost doubling it...

So where is it going from here? that's a question that needs to be answered by arm followers before getting to exited and carried away, as I said in earlier posts arm is a terrific share with strong followers but can hurt either way if not carefully traded...

Having looked at 5d intraday chart I can see arm failing to break through 368/9 3 times, this caused the price to retrace to 340 only to retry on +ve tech sentiment inspired by bullish Nas, but arm still has so far failed to break through 370 (rounding up the figure) resistance, this suggesting to me that arm has either to break through that level or retrace to around 310 before starting another uptrend...on the other hand both RSI and stochastics have been at oversold area for some time and are bound retrace from there sooner or later...note that RSI forming a H&S and ticking down on -ve price/rsi divergence

Now let's see what Steve and SirY2K say about this :)

Riz
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Looks like the chart and indicators were giving right signals down today -15.5 to 345, with the -ve senitiment started in the US 310 is not so unlikely...missed to short it today as by the time I went online it was already down enough for the day, hope anyone else enjoyed the ride down...

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
After hitting the lower target set in the above post twice on intraday basis, ARM started going back up and ended Friday right at resistance again mentioned in the above post, breaching it a couple of times on intraday basis: +9 at 369

Riz
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
So where from here, back to 415 or so where it formed 2 top in May or pulling back...got to extend the time scale to have a better idea about this...on 6 month chart ARM looking quite good now...having broken through all major resistance levels on the way up...RSI stopped ticking down and back ticking up heading back over 70 line, stochastics look like they like hoverin around 80 lines ignoring o/b signals, ARM certainly eager to lift its trade range to 350-above 400 area...no doubt it will have a go at 400 if it doesnt retrace below 350 soon...as usual ARM is a terrific trade

Riz
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Well, it did have a go at 400 and even hit 405 intraday...but as I was expecting failed to break through May high and retraced TO 382, now trying to base around 380...I expect further retracements before any bounces...

Riz
 

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Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
back to arm

It's been a long time since I my last post on arm, been busy watching advertising and publishers recently...after hovering above and below 400, ARM started falling all the way down to 320 which is a major sup/res level on Nasdaq's recent weak performance and concerns on senior management change....

Only yesterday news that ARM has emerged as the winner on the multi-million dollar lawsuit against PicoTurbo which has been marketing ARM-compatible products in breach of its US patents may soon make senior management concerns forgotten...

With PicoTurbo acknowledging the enforceability of ARM's patents and agreeing to work with its customers to move them over to official ARM designs, ARM is proving that it can protect its intellectual property which has been one of the major concern...

Chartwise price is bang on a major support level and interestingly forming a bullish harami candle pattern right there....RSI though broken down the descending triangle formed recently is hitting the 30 line which has been a strong support line...stochastics oversold and K just started ticking up...

Overall unless we have serious negative news from over the pond on techs both news and chart are suggesting that ARM is highly likely to bounce from the current level as off next week...I've just put them on my long watch list for next week...

Riz
 
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