A Professional Approach to Trading Futures

[steven46]

and here is our last markup for today

We will provide one (1) example showing just how important the statistical
skew is to Professionals. We monitor the relationship between the White (AVWAP) line
and the Red (POC) line. Notice how the White AVWAP) crosses above the POC just prior
to the NY Open. We call this a "Tell", because it foretells the move up off the open. This is
a high probability long entry good for almost 10 pts if executed properly.

And at the bottom pane, we use the CVD later in the session to identify "Leg 1-Pullback-Leg 2" which
is also a classic, high probability long based on the concept that shorts are trapped below and have
to "give up". Once those stop loss orders are activated, the only choices they have are 1) to stand aside
and miss the rest of the move up, OR 2) to "chase the market", entering late. Usually they do just that, and the
momentum they create is the fuel needed to move the market higher to test 7,000+

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Hello London & EuroZone Traders
It is 7:20am in Sunny California

In another thread I have mentioned that I have started to write
a series of articles, about my experience with Funded Trader "Challenges"
I have concerns (I guess you might call them "critiques"). In my opinion
it is problematic, that this industry makes most of its money based on
the inability of customers to trade profitably. Some of the participants to
their credit, have begun to offer education, but they are in the minority.
Also, in my research I find that most of them rely on AI agents to respond
to inquiries and provide customer support. I personally don't like this trend
because the AI agents are crap. (Just one man's opinion). Finally, there are
reports of inconsistent or suspicious business practices as regards payouts and
application of rules. In my opinion, it is a matter of time before regulatory agencies
step in the enforce standardization across the industry. It is much needed. As the
basis for my articles, I am using OneUp Trader, and will report my experiences as
they unfold. So far, OneUp has done a good job, especially as regards support
and I like them. Early days. Updates to follow

As regards my course of study, I have finished it and will start to teach a class specifically for
retail traders (if sufficient demand exists). I have enjoyed writing the scripts, because it
required that I look closely at my own training, and confirm that my education is still relevant
and that in the aggregate, my advantage remains stable. For my private account I trade
two (2) systems, one is a short time frame (intraday) approach using mean reversion, and
the other is trend following over various time horizons. To date both are ITM

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Hello London & EuroZone Traders

For those who have been waiting, you are running out of time
I am going to start a class pretty soon and once it is filled that's it

Attaching a couple of charts to show the Basic System
which is what I recommend that all Retail Traders learn. The basic
premise is as follows

1) Learning to identify regimes (Market states) is critical to success
2) Once you know the "State" of the Market (Balanced, Imbalanced) you
can choose that approach that provide the best chance of success
3) When you match the conditions to the system approach all that is left
is execution (Trade Entry, Risk Management, Record Keeping).

Most Retail Traders fail to do at least one of the three critical elements of Professional
trading. These are "Fatal" errors. For example, you have to have a system setup
so that you enter your order to buy or sell, and the stop loss is automated. By "Automated"
we mean that the order is held on the broker/exchange side, so that in the event of a
problem (power outage, earthquake, fire, flood, whatever), you are taken out with a minimum
loss. Most retail traders never consider this, and go on with their lives, until the one time it
happens and blows up their account.

So today we post the following charts
1) First chart shows the context (previous session) and note the MOC order at the end of the session
57,000 contracts to go (to sell). According to the NY Fed research, this suggests that the "Overnight
Drift" is a possibility and traders could make money trading the London Session. The question is can
you identify the correct regime in which this "Drift" higher is likely to occur?
2) If instead you choose to trade the next NY session, can you identify THAT market regime? and know
when to stand aside (while the "Skew" develops?
3) Finally, if you do decide to trade the NY session, can you identify WHEN the skew develops sufficiently
to identify a high probability entry? The outline of the process makes it seem simple, but its the preparation
to trade that separates Professionals from the Retail.

Check out the charts, and ask yourself if you could identify the conditions on your own. Most retail traders
cannot accurately identify market regimes, AND most do not even know what statistical skew is. let alone identify it.

I think I've said enough and now I rely on the intelligence of those who may read it.


Good luck