YOU #¤%&#¤%& #¤%#¤% Show me a profitable strategy!

H

HeiPaaDeg

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I have back tested and forward tested pretty much EVERY strategy I have seen on this board and other boards.

So far I can tell you that NONE of these strategy's are performing better than just cost averaging dividend stocks!!

IF YOU ARE NOT RISKING TO WIPE YOUR ACCOUNT YOU WILL NOT EVER BECOME RICH FOR TRADING FOREX!! If you are willing to prove me wrong, show me a strategy with eg 90% win ratio or one THAT WE CAN ALL SE WILL BE PROFITABLE IN THE LOOOOONG RUN.

Guess what, you are going to fail!

I'd be happy if you can prove me wrong.

Best regards.
 
In the game of probability and risk, you don't need a 90% success rate to earn money. Just a 60% or even 55% will suffice if the reward to risk is good. Some pro traders have a 40% success rate with very good risk management; and when they are right, the rewards are HUGE. You need to figure out a system that works for you. Keep testing on demo.
 
shadowninja said:
In the game of probability and risk, you don't need a 90% success rate to earn money. Just a 60% or even 55% will suffice if the reward to risk is good. Some pro traders have a 40% success rate with very good risk management; and when they are right, the rewards are HUGE. You need to figure out a system that works for you. Keep testing on demo.
Click to expand...

Totally Agree with the above!!! (y) Depends on the type of strategy employed.

A lot of "Long-Term" Trend Following strategies have around a 40-45% win rate but still have a positive expectancy as they attempt to capture the majority of the trend. A few big winners creates this positive expectancy.

In comparison, a "Short-Term" strategy normally has anything above 70-80% winners but their individual returns will be smaller in comparison.

It also depends significantly on the markets traded. I personally know a number of traders who have very profitable Systems trading on the ASX due to its bull run in recent times.....
 
HeiPaaDeg said:
I have back tested and forward tested pretty much EVERY strategy I have seen on this board and other boards.

So far I can tell you that NONE of these strategy's are performing better than just cost averaging dividend stocks!!

IF YOU ARE NOT RISKING TO WIPE YOUR ACCOUNT YOU WILL NOT EVER BECOME RICH FOR TRADING FOREX!! If you are willing to prove me wrong, show me a strategy with eg 90% win ratio or one THAT WE CAN ALL SE WILL BE PROFITABLE IN THE LOOOOONG RUN.

Guess what, you are going to fail!

I'd be happy if you can prove me wrong.

Best regards.
Click to expand...

any system/strategy ultimately reflects the traders psychology, as they have to maintain the nerve to trade it comfortably for a long period of time with confidence.

if you have backtested "pretty much EVERY strategy" with no real success, this depends on what your definitions of success are.
if your conclusions are just buying stocks and collecting dividends, then THATS your strategy.

With regards to "prove me wrong", what terms and definitions are you using for "proof"?
You have already defined proof as 90% win ratio. This reflects not any mathematical or statistical validity, merely your emotional intolerance to risk and loss, which is YOUR limitation, not the markets limitation.

One of the weaknesses of some threads is a weak thought process, where people want answers that fall within their restricted knowledge-base (testing a system within limited self-imposed parameters of success or failure) or comfort-zone (wanting a 90% success rate when 45% can be just as good), rather than trying to expand their understanding to unravel a deeper reality.

Its all here at T2W. Systems, methods, risk-control, help, and lots of support.
Read some long-running threads, such as the FX threads, Dow threads, and see them help each other, and pick up nuggets of ideas and styles.

Spend one week, just reading. You will cotton onto something that you can use.
The real achievement is when you take an idea, and confidently tweak it to your own personal style.

Good luck.
 
There are a lot of successful traders on this site who have very profitable and rewarding methods I am afraid that none of them will work for you or anyone else if you have tried all systems and methods on this site and say none work and still have not realised that all methods systems have to tweaked to your personal traits,psychology,time frames then you should not consider trading as a career.
Like the previous poster said
"The real achievement is when you take an idea, and confidently tweak it to your own personal style"

Good luck.
 
Here's a classic example of trading this week (1 day's trading; I was trying to get on a trend):

Pips profit or loss:
Trade 1: -22
Trade 2: -16
Trade 3: 19
Trade 4: -8
Trade 5: 148 (could have been more but I bailed out by setting stops too tight as it looked like it was stagnating; in the end it went up another 100 pips)
Total pips: 121

That's a 40% success rate. Snag is you need to demo trade until you find a system that you're confident will give you profit even when you're more wrong than right.
 
I hear you. A lot of successful traders and so on.. Right.. Show me ONE strategy that is better than just collecting dividends then? I can without any risk make an annual 20% on just cost averaging dividend stocks. So if there is going to be any point trading forex, the reward has to be significantly higher than that. I have heard this bull **** about "strategy will not work for you" a lot of times. And it really is just bull ****. I have no problem putting real money on the table and follow a rule based strategy all the way until the account is dry. Unless the "successful" traders here are using a significant amount of gut-feeling then they are not making a high ROI in the forex market. It really is that easy.

I'm well educated about fundamental analysis in stocks and I can mathematically prove that I am buying One buck for 60 cents when I buy a share. If I can not, then I wont buy it. This strategy has proven it self over more than a hundred years, and it will work for another thousand years if the exchange is operating that long.

So can any of you "I want to be rich kids" show me a strategy that will make me more money than the 98% winn/loss ratio that gives me +20% every year? Significantly better that is..

Maybe gamma is right. Trading might not be for me. Investing is more my thing. That is just buying something for less than what it is worth.. My stocks are all up even though the market is down since November here on my side of the world :) And they are paying a significant amount of dividend :)

Point is, this is boring!

I like charts, I like the markets and I like to study price. With stocks? Well, I don't even watch them weekly.

Point is, I want to be trading and not just investing (even if I actually think investing is the best way to go about making money)

Now, direct me to a rule based strategy that works. It does not have to be 90% winn ratio, but it has to deliver significantly more gains than I'm achieving pretty much risk free in the stock market.
 
HeiPaaDeg said:
Point is, this is boring!

Now, direct me to a rule based strategy that works. It does not have to be 90% winn ratio, but it has to deliver significantly more gains than I'm achieving pretty much risk free in the stock market.
Click to expand...

:LOL: :LOL: and you expect someone to jump to your tune & present their work on a silver platter just coz you haul up a couple half assed "I challenge" you posts??

And I imagine you'd require all this information for free too huh? :LOL:

Chances are, if someone actually took the time & effort to show you, tell you, feed you...it's doubtful you'd be able to trade it correctly anyway judging by the attitude in your posts thus far.

Like A Dashing Blade said: the mud clogged path to Elite Trader is very well signposted!!
 
HeiPaaDeg said:
Now, direct me to a rule based strategy that works. It does not have to be 90% winn ratio, but it has to deliver significantly more gains than I'm achieving pretty much risk free in the stock market.
Click to expand...

OK, let's totally cut out the middle man. I you post your address, I'll send you my wallet.

UTB
 
HeiPaaDeg,

You're not going to get into ampro's secrets by using those sledge hammer tactics. You have to use a velvet glove. :)

I suggest you work on the principle that nothing works all the time, but some things work most of the time. Therefore, learn to get shot, quick, of what's not working and make the most of what is.

Split
 
the blades said:
OK, let's totally cut out the middle man. I you post your address, I'll send you my wallet.

UTB
Click to expand...

No need to make it that hard.

Let me help you out, and you can do the same thing.

Buy this:

Amazon.com: The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing: Benjamin Graham: Books

And this:

Amazon.com: Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition: Benjamin Graham,David Dodd: Books


It is easy. Just search for low P/E stocks that pay an high amount of dividends and analyze it to see exactly how much you are paying for each dollar. You want to pay less than 70 cents for each dollar. This strategy is proven to work for more than a hundred years. It will however take you quite some time as you are holding stocks for a few years at the time. My favorite these days are Frontline LTD. It has been paying approx 20% annualy in dividends and spinnoffs for quite some time now. Considering the ownership and the fact that the world is consisted of 70% water is not likely going to stop! It is operating in a highly cyclical market, so you want to buy it when it's cheap! That happens at least once every year. Then reinvest the dividends. If you put $1000 every month with this kind of strategy (you might have to find other stocks as well) you will have a nice fat wallet in 20 years. Just brush up your high school math and find out.

Now, I want you "GetFiltyhRichQuickDreamers" to show me something better.

Best Regards



Edit: I forgot, You of course have to analyse all the financial statements over a time period of ten years so you can see for a fact that the company is solid and are caching out dividends even in the bear markets.

You might even have to brush up your accounting skills and learn some math.
 
hpd

I suspect you're jerking peoples' rope for a bit of fun :cheesy:


However, if you're serious, then I think you're right about investing being the way to make money over the very long term - it has, after all, made Warren Buffet the richest man in the world. That said, there are plenty of traders focussed on much shorter timescales making a comfortable living year by year.

Your successful investment strategy of cost averaging dividend stocks is essentially "follow the dividend" and about as descriptively useful as a trader describing their successful strategy as "follow the trend".

With "20% p.a. returns virtually risk free", why are you even thinking about changing? Just sit back and become a rich man.

'Course, your posts might just be a novel and challenging way of trying to winkle out a nice money making strategy for you to use. Well, you won't get any free lunches on here ;)

Cheers

jon
 
barjon said:
hpd

I suspect you're jerking peoples' rope for a bit of fun :cheesy:


However, if you're serious, then I think you're right about investing being the way to make money over the very long term - it has, after all, made Warren Buffet the richest man in the world. That said, there are plenty of traders focussed on much shorter timescales making a comfortable living year by year.

Your successful investment strategy of cost averaging dividend stocks is essentially "follow the dividend" and about as descriptively useful as a trader describing their successful strategy as "follow the trend".

With "20% p.a. returns virtually risk free", why are you even thinking about changing? Just sit back and become a rich man.

'Course, your posts might just be a novel and challenging way of trying to winkle out a nice money making strategy for you to use. Well, you won't get any free lunches on here ;)

Cheers

jon
Click to expand...

I'm not changing are you crazy? I want to ad to it. And I know i wont get any free lunch here, simply because none of you can make better profit (if any at all) than what I'm already doing.

BUT I think it CAN be done, and that is why I challenge you to show me a profitable strategy.

Best Regards
 
Close the door on your way out, there's a good fella.

Well, as much as I'd love to stick around & watch you bounce around the playground all day, I got better things to do with my Saturday afternoon. There's a couple pairs of Jimmy Choo's with my name on em.

I'll leave you to scamper around in the trusty hands of these capable fella's.

Have fun & be sure you dodge their claws - one or two are awful sharp :cheesy:
 
HeiPaaDeg said:
I'm not changing are you crazy? I want to ad to it. And I know i wont get any free lunch here, simply because none of you can make better profit (if any at all) than what I'm already doing.

BUT I think it CAN be done, and that is why I challenge you to show me a profitable strategy.

Best Regards
Click to expand...

"I've read EVERY strategy"

And tried none of them properly?

LOL
 
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