Why I find it so hard to trade with trend?
- Thread starter luckyvictor
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A good help is to tell you, you cannot use these outdated theories for anything. You need to think new.
NVP
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Hi
Maybe do the research in your instrument of choice and statistically prove the frequency and length of trends
You will probably soon realise that you can increase the probability of success by predicting when the trending is most possible
I trade forex....and i trade trends predominantly....... you can increase the edge
Nvp
But have you ever gotten in a situation where you entered too late and still end up profitable?
1) Simple review of the previous week, and month's trading sessions can (if done properly) reveal timing of
breakouts.
2) For stocks, many professionals use RVOL (relative volume) to identify when (and at what prices) volume enters
the market, creating a breakout.
3) Finally, I use both "VWAP" and "Anchored VWAP" to show where price is breaking out. Amateurs and Retail
traders may want to research the work of Brian Shannon to learn more.
These three tools are in common use. Suggest you take some time to research each, to determine
if one (or more) of them are suitable for your use.
Good luck
breakouts.
2) For stocks, many professionals use RVOL (relative volume) to identify when (and at what prices) volume enters
the market, creating a breakout.
3) Finally, I use both "VWAP" and "Anchored VWAP" to show where price is breaking out. Amateurs and Retail
traders may want to research the work of Brian Shannon to learn more.
These three tools are in common use. Suggest you take some time to research each, to determine
if one (or more) of them are suitable for your use.
Good luck
In your experience, does the interaction between RVOL and Anchored VWAP provide any statistically consistent edge in intraday Forex trading, particularly around session opens or macroeconomic news releases?
Sorry I messed up your quote
I don't have experience with RVOL for Forex. I have used both tools with Stock trading however and there they do provide an edge
What you should know however is that the edge you have depends on your training and skill level. If you obtain good training, then
it should provide a significant edge. Using RVOL with either standard or anchored VWAP provides an objective way to see which
side is in control. Its that simple. Using both together should allow a skilled trader to identify WHEN "other time frame buyers or
sellers are entering" (when I say "other" I really mean institutions). Took me a moment to get it together but I think that is the best
answer I can provide. Hope it helps.
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Thanks, that actually helps a lot. I figured the core value might come from being able to spot institutional activity. Out of curiosity — when using anchored VWAP in stocks, do you anchor it to a specific event like earnings, macro news, or just session opens? Wondering if that same logic could translate to major Forex news drops.
Yes, that is best practice. AVWAP anchors to what is called an "event candle". When I do this
I also use a statistical skew tool to allow me to see where the "informed participants" are
already positioned. Once I identify those players, I can usually determine where to find
a reasonable entry, and where the nearest and furthest profit targets exist. That pretty much
completes the process.
Postscript
Upon reflection I thought to add the following
Traders who rely on AVWAP, do so precisely because it can be placed wherever needed to provide
what I call a "Key Reference". This means that it can be adapted as needed for example
To obtain a longer time frame reference, a trader might place an Anchored VWAP at the beginning of
any time period they wish, Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year. From that point forward you would have
an objective measure of who is in control.
Shorter time frame traders also place AVWAP at significant Highs, Lows AND my students will place a
AVWAP at closes above/below the framing envelope (I use the VWAP envelope with 2 standard deviation
bands). I also teach a simplified method using Keltner Channels, and again, my students place Anchored
VWAP at the start of a session, and later they place a second Anchored VWAP at closes above or below
the envelope, to catch reversals. This is a very effective use of that tool.
While Brian Shannon is credited with inventing the AVWAP, the truth is, that it was actually invented by
a scientist named Paul Levine, and was mostly used by Kevin Haggerty (an old mentor of mine) for longer
time frame investing initially, and also for shorter time frame trading.
The bottom line for me and my students is that the best way to use the tool is to wait for price to test
the AVWAP, and THEN you wait for price to display strength or weakness before you enter long or short.
My preferred setup is B/O, pullback, retest, entry. I also apply a technique (that I developed called "Reading
Volume"). Short summary is that you compare the volume of a bar to the size, and context (compared to the
previous) in order to obtain confirmation. As with most things in life, its about hard earned skill. Once you take
the time to learn, it "pays you back" for the rest of your career.
I hope this additional information is useful.
Good luck
I also use a statistical skew tool to allow me to see where the "informed participants" are
already positioned. Once I identify those players, I can usually determine where to find
a reasonable entry, and where the nearest and furthest profit targets exist. That pretty much
completes the process.
Postscript
Upon reflection I thought to add the following
Traders who rely on AVWAP, do so precisely because it can be placed wherever needed to provide
what I call a "Key Reference". This means that it can be adapted as needed for example
To obtain a longer time frame reference, a trader might place an Anchored VWAP at the beginning of
any time period they wish, Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year. From that point forward you would have
an objective measure of who is in control.
Shorter time frame traders also place AVWAP at significant Highs, Lows AND my students will place a
AVWAP at closes above/below the framing envelope (I use the VWAP envelope with 2 standard deviation
bands). I also teach a simplified method using Keltner Channels, and again, my students place Anchored
VWAP at the start of a session, and later they place a second Anchored VWAP at closes above or below
the envelope, to catch reversals. This is a very effective use of that tool.
While Brian Shannon is credited with inventing the AVWAP, the truth is, that it was actually invented by
a scientist named Paul Levine, and was mostly used by Kevin Haggerty (an old mentor of mine) for longer
time frame investing initially, and also for shorter time frame trading.
The bottom line for me and my students is that the best way to use the tool is to wait for price to test
the AVWAP, and THEN you wait for price to display strength or weakness before you enter long or short.
My preferred setup is B/O, pullback, retest, entry. I also apply a technique (that I developed called "Reading
Volume"). Short summary is that you compare the volume of a bar to the size, and context (compared to the
previous) in order to obtain confirmation. As with most things in life, its about hard earned skill. Once you take
the time to learn, it "pays you back" for the rest of your career.
I hope this additional information is useful.
Good luck
Last edited:
thanks!
trading_bee
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what strategies do you use?
just don't predict price movement, follow your strategies and indicators.
whenever there is a signal, you need to take action.
just don't predict price movement, follow your strategies and indicators.
whenever there is a signal, you need to take action.
I am not sure that I understand your comment
I have been doing this professionally for more than 15 years
I do (actually) predict the market and when I am wrong I can
usually identify the "correct" path after the first three (3) bars or
candles. The S&P futures usually opens in a trading range and
then breaks out at or about 2-3pm for what we call "Leg 1"
Then it enters a trading range or reversal as institutions take profit
and create a "Leg 2". This is one of several scenarios that are common
to the S&P
Attaching a chart of today's trade
There are several possible trades but the easiest way for retail traders
to make money is to wait for "Leg 2" as seen in the attached chart. IF
you can learn to recognize the opportunity it is an easy +10.
As mentioned in my recent post "A Professional Approach......"
once you have booked that profit, I suggest getting out to avoid
giving it back (overtrading).
Good luck
I have been doing this professionally for more than 15 years
I do (actually) predict the market and when I am wrong I can
usually identify the "correct" path after the first three (3) bars or
candles. The S&P futures usually opens in a trading range and
then breaks out at or about 2-3pm for what we call "Leg 1"
Then it enters a trading range or reversal as institutions take profit
and create a "Leg 2". This is one of several scenarios that are common
to the S&P
Attaching a chart of today's trade
There are several possible trades but the easiest way for retail traders
to make money is to wait for "Leg 2" as seen in the attached chart. IF
you can learn to recognize the opportunity it is an easy +10.
As mentioned in my recent post "A Professional Approach......"
once you have booked that profit, I suggest getting out to avoid
giving it back (overtrading).
Good luck
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