Why do people not use Betfair more?

[nutter punter]

I see all this concern on here about rejection of trades on IG/Binexx/Cantor/Finspreads so why don't you just stick it in Betfair.

The hourly markets easily trade a 100k and all you have to do is stick in a price either to back or lay the FTSE/Dow to be up or down. Its not hard and a heck of a lot less stress than dealing with market makers or their machines with other spread firms.

So why the do people complain on here yet don't do the obvious and move to Betfair?

 

[Clement Attlee]

You'd be better off at Tradesports.com for financials.

 

[FetteredChinos]

agreed with the sentiment though.. it is something i have been doing in earnest recently..

there are some huge inefficiencies on the exchanges, lots of arbitrage opportunities between betfair and betdaq, and generally low commissions.

whilst it is hard to get a bet matched in any huge volume, especially on betdaq, and the platforms are a bit on the slow side, it pretty easy to maintain a high strike rate..

plus, when trading financials, a back at say 1.20 is far more likely than backing a sporting event at 1.20...

hopefully the inefficiencies will remain a lot longer though, but over the last 3-4 months, they have appeared fairly regularly..

fc

 

[apples10]

I see all this concern on here about rejection of trades on IG/Binexx/Cantor/Finspreads so why don't you just stick it in Betfair.

The hourly markets easily trade a 100k and all you have to do is stick in a price either to back or lay the FTSE/Dow to be up or down. Its not hard and a heck of a lot less stress than dealing with market makers or their machines with other spread firms.

So why the do people complain on here yet don't do the obvious and move to Betfair?

Many financial Institutions have web blockers on betting sites, thus many people who would use their site for financials can't.

 

[BinarySoft Chris]

You'd be better off at Tradesports.com for financials.

tradesports.com looks pretty dead?

only a couple of the financial binaries have a bit of liquidity

 

[FetteredChinos]

and as an example of the inefficiency, ive just had a bet matched for the DOW to finish up @ 1.45

when the DOW hits +0.6% at any point in the day (which it did at the open), the chances of it finishing up compared to prior close are nearly 90%. so 1.45 is approx 3.5 times what it should be..

seems like a value bet to me...

FC

 

[BinarySoft Chris]

and as an example of the inefficiency, ive just had a bet matched for the DOW to finish up @ 1.45

when the DOW hits +0.6% at any point in the day (which it did at the open), the chances of it finishing up compared to prior close are nearly 90%. so 1.45 is approx 3.5 times what it should be..

seems like a value bet to me...

FC

dow is currently up around 35 points, no way is that a 90% chance of being up, dow can easily fall 10 points in a matter of seconds

 

[FetteredChinos]

yes.. but have a look at the historical stats...

similarly on the FTSE..

you would be surprised how often the FTSE finishes up once it hits +10pts on the day

its all about getting value, and i see this as a fair bet..

as for the Dow being up 35pts, that is, if i recall, about an 75-80% chance of finishing up....(edit:- and the exchanges were pricing it at 1.36.... )


download some historical data, and have a look for yourself...you will be surprised at some of the stats you can come up with.

 

[nutter punter]

tradesports.com looks pretty dead?

only a couple of the financial binaries have a bit of liquidity

Clement works for them and just types rubbish. Tradesports is a useless place to go if you want to trade.

 

[nutter punter]

and as an example of the inefficiency, ive just had a bet matched for the DOW to finish up @ 1.45

when the DOW hits +0.6% at any point in the day (which it did at the open), the chances of it finishing up compared to prior close are nearly 90%. so 1.45 is approx 3.5 times what it should be..

seems like a value bet to me...

FC

I quite agree there is excellent value on Betfair.

 

[apples10]

yes.. but have a look at the historical stats...

similarly on the FTSE..

you would be surprised how often the FTSE finishes up once it hits +10pts on the day

its all about getting value, and i see this as a fair bet..

as for the Dow being up 35pts, that is, if i recall, about an 75-80% chance of finishing up....(edit:- and the exchanges were pricing it at 1.36.... )


download some historical data, and have a look for yourself...you will be surprised at some of the stats you can come up with.

jees, that has been some turnaround (now up 1.7pts).

howmany days does a market lose a big gain and still end up, bet its not many!

 

[nutter punter]

jees, that has been some turnaround (now up 1.7pts).

howmany days does a market lose a big gain and still end up, bet its not many!

I agree it is rare.

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, the old 90 point sell-off eh?

still, looks as though there is 3-peak positive divergance on the 5 min chart, so all is not lost yet...

 

[FetteredChinos]

just whacked a cheeky £5 @3.15 to finish up...

silly odds, bearing in mind we are only 20pts down, with a good few hours still to go...

 

[Whale Song]

Could you explain just a bit about what it is youre doing? What do you mean by the "@3.15"?

 

[FetteredChinos]

the price for the Dow to finish today up compared to the prior close (10720) was being offered on the exchanges at 3.15..

ie for a £10 stake you would return a profit of £31.50-£10= £21.50

the exchange prices are too skewed in terms of the very short term trend, so if you look at the slightly bigger picture, you can get some serious value..

and as i type now, the odds on it finishing up have shrunk to 2.56

i could either lay an amount to lock in the profit, or i could leave it to expiry at 9pm..

there are loads of betting exchange guides if you do a google search..

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

erm, not sure what you are insinuating there Rude, old chap..

i could handle the markets the majority of the time, but i had discipline problems with moving stops etc..

by "trading" fixed odds, that factor is taken out of my hands, and im forced to stick to them..

as such, i am trading in a firmly disciplined way, using sensible money management, and exploiting poor pricing on the exchanges...

im quite happy making a consistent profit now mate..

all the best,

fc

 

[Whale Song]

Thanks for the fill in fc. So it's more akin to gambling than trading. Nothing derogatory intended - if I was going to call a coin toss, I'd consider knowledge of past coin tosses a useful thing. What surprises me is anyone would offer so much more then evens of a binary such as 'finish up or finish down'. Is that what you mean by value?

I presume you're not betting against pros, but other punters (and stupid ones at that!)?

I'll check out the site as if people are offering these sorts of inducement it would be churlish to refuse their money.

The response from rudeboy suggests there's some history between you two which is none of my business, but rudeboy, without knowing what markets you play in, if you can't see the edge a 1:3.5 offers you on a binary like that, you've got a fair bit of learning to do yourself.

fc - don't know what other trades you did yesterday, but congrats on your 3.5 reward on that one.

To the person the other side of your bet - buy a book on basic probability - it will only cost you about £17.50.

 

[FetteredChinos]

Thanks for the fill in fc. So it's more akin to gambling than trading. Nothing derogatory intended - if I was going to call a coin toss, I'd consider knowledge of past coin tosses a useful thing. What surprises me is anyone would offer so much more then evens of a binary such as 'finish up or finish down'. Is that what you mean by value?

I presume you're not betting against pros, but other punters (and stupid ones at that!)?

I'll check out the site as if people are offering these sorts of inducement it would be churlish to refuse their money.

The response from rudeboy suggests there's some history between you two which is none of my business, but rudeboy, without knowing what markets you play in, if you can't see the edge a 1:3.5 offers you on a binary like that, you've got a fair bit of learning to do yourself.

fc - don't know what other trades you did yesterday, but congrats on your 3.5 reward on that one.

To the person the other side of your bet - buy a book on basic probability - it will only cost you about £17.50.

thanks whale.. i had a total of £65 riding yesterday, which came in at a healthy £45 profit yesterday, or 0.5% of my total account. fairly risk free.

this is why i am now using exchanges, as there are far too many people (mug punters?) out there who do not realise what they are doing.. i am merely trying to mop up the excess...

when using binaries provided by IG Index or similar, their pricing models are always pretty much in line with probability (trust me, i spent 2 days solid plugging numbers into spreadsheets), but the exchanges dont have these pricing models ;-)

as for what Rudeboy was on about, i have no idea.. i didnt realise we had any history, but hey, thats what this site has turned into the last few months.

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol eh up Joules, long time no chat...

not going too well over in Faisalabad at the mo, but well done on knocking off the 78 to beat the Windies..

you have to laugh at Hayden though lol

anyway, as another example of value on the exchanges...

just put a £20 bet at 2.43 for the FTSE to finish up...


its at the bottom of the channel established since the low last wednesday, and also there is approx a 70% chance of the day finishing up after the early spike..

lets see how it pans out..

fc