User
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Well we did that.
BUT:
no clear short term direction. A test of 10450 should see us touching 10500. I think its simple to say in order to go lower we need to break 10400 once again. As Fridays session shows, 10400 is now giving this index good support.
With alot of data out this week I think all you intraday players are going to have a very busy time.
Goodluck to you all.
User
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The Dow rallied higher and held onto its gains. The Nasdaq and S&P also had a strong day.
This Dow is at a crucial swing piont. The index could give a short term change of trend or another continuation of the recent downward trend. We have seen 10400 act as support on Friday.
Longer term traders need 10400 to break for downside moves to continue while a close above 10630 area for upside movement is needed for confirmation.
Although some may be prepared to buy at a close above 10550 as the downward trendline from 29/12/04 would be violated. I would like to wait for 10630 as 10600 could give this market resistance as it did from the 15/11/04 to 10/12/04.
For Tuesdays action watch 10530 for an upside break which should lead us to test 10550. On the downside watch 10450, which needs to be broken and could well lead us to play with 10400 once again.
January ended as a negative month. The probabilty of 2005 being a down year is high.
My perception is the US indicies would end down for 2005. Will we see all time highs? Well, at this moment in time that scenario seems a 'little' far-fetched'. But who knows!
This Dow is at a crucial swing piont. The index could give a short term change of trend or another continuation of the recent downward trend. We have seen 10400 act as support on Friday.
Longer term traders need 10400 to break for downside moves to continue while a close above 10630 area for upside movement is needed for confirmation.
Although some may be prepared to buy at a close above 10550 as the downward trendline from 29/12/04 would be violated. I would like to wait for 10630 as 10600 could give this market resistance as it did from the 15/11/04 to 10/12/04.
For Tuesdays action watch 10530 for an upside break which should lead us to test 10550. On the downside watch 10450, which needs to be broken and could well lead us to play with 10400 once again.
January ended as a negative month. The probabilty of 2005 being a down year is high.
My perception is the US indicies would end down for 2005. Will we see all time highs? Well, at this moment in time that scenario seems a 'little' far-fetched'. But who knows!
counter_violent
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Hi
I follow the Dow on a daily basis and we seem to be in a crucial phase over the next week or so .
Keep a close eye on developments on the formation of a right shoulder on the daily candles, if this sucker goes , it has 9,700 written all over it and probably will set the scene for the year
I follow the Dow on a daily basis and we seem to be in a crucial phase over the next week or so .
Keep a close eye on developments on the formation of a right shoulder on the daily candles, if this sucker goes , it has 9,700 written all over it and probably will set the scene for the year
As this thread is about the DOW and other markets, may I talk about the FTSE .
The market is being buoyed by bid speculation both real and unreal across nearly all sectors, this is good for the nimble and astute but in itself is not a good enough reason for the market to be at such lofty levels. Even when the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ fall, the FTSE at best gives up a few points which it promptly regains. There are many that feel the market is undervalued and use such absurd stats as – Earnings before Interest, tax, rent, wages, etc. Are these not business expenses which affect profitability? What is EBITDA? Surely when I buy a computer it loses value and I have to account for it; the depreciation/capital loss reduces my profits. Equally, when I borrow money to fund my business, it attracts interest which reduces profitability so what is the use of these funny terms?
Anyway, since it is the season of mega bids I am going to give you all the scoop of the century (remember where you first heard about it).
On Monday evening I had dinner with an elderly lady who has been around for what seems like an eternity, she still recounts tails of the British Empire; the steam engine and the creation of the United Nations. She has had enough of all this nonsense of customers phoning the bank and being routed to Bangalore or computers deciding on overdraft levels etc. So she has decided to mount a blockbuster bid of £12 a share for HSBC.
I nearly fell off my chair in shock and disbelief, here was a 93 year old great grandmother planning to launch a bid for HSBC; but she then went on to map out her strategy. Along with other colleagues, they intend to put up 10% of the equity; obtain another 10% from some Russian Oligarchs; 10% from the Bank Of China and raise the rest in a mixture of junk bonds and Private Equity Finance. They have a couple of chaps that used to work for Drexel Burnham Lambert lined up to raise the finance and an ex US Treasury Secretary as CEO designate.
I enquired about how they intended to make the deal pay and found the information quite revealing –
1. Close all non essential branches.
2. Retrench 40% of the employees.
3. Levy charges on all deposits and withdrawals.
4. Re incorporate in Bermuda.
5. Introduce charges on all accounts.
6. Sale and lease back of all premises.
7. Raise 50 billion US Dollars which is immediately converted into Euros and Yen; this will be re
converted once the US Dollar drops 10% and the loan repaid.
By now I could see an easy source of making money so I asked her when they intended to make a friendly approach to the Board of HSBC to which the old lady responded; “We are going to launch a hostile bid on Friday April 1 2005.” It is time to raise all the funds I can and go long HSBC.
The market is being buoyed by bid speculation both real and unreal across nearly all sectors, this is good for the nimble and astute but in itself is not a good enough reason for the market to be at such lofty levels. Even when the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ fall, the FTSE at best gives up a few points which it promptly regains. There are many that feel the market is undervalued and use such absurd stats as – Earnings before Interest, tax, rent, wages, etc. Are these not business expenses which affect profitability? What is EBITDA? Surely when I buy a computer it loses value and I have to account for it; the depreciation/capital loss reduces my profits. Equally, when I borrow money to fund my business, it attracts interest which reduces profitability so what is the use of these funny terms?
Anyway, since it is the season of mega bids I am going to give you all the scoop of the century (remember where you first heard about it).
On Monday evening I had dinner with an elderly lady who has been around for what seems like an eternity, she still recounts tails of the British Empire; the steam engine and the creation of the United Nations. She has had enough of all this nonsense of customers phoning the bank and being routed to Bangalore or computers deciding on overdraft levels etc. So she has decided to mount a blockbuster bid of £12 a share for HSBC.
I nearly fell off my chair in shock and disbelief, here was a 93 year old great grandmother planning to launch a bid for HSBC; but she then went on to map out her strategy. Along with other colleagues, they intend to put up 10% of the equity; obtain another 10% from some Russian Oligarchs; 10% from the Bank Of China and raise the rest in a mixture of junk bonds and Private Equity Finance. They have a couple of chaps that used to work for Drexel Burnham Lambert lined up to raise the finance and an ex US Treasury Secretary as CEO designate.
I enquired about how they intended to make the deal pay and found the information quite revealing –
1. Close all non essential branches.
2. Retrench 40% of the employees.
3. Levy charges on all deposits and withdrawals.
4. Re incorporate in Bermuda.
5. Introduce charges on all accounts.
6. Sale and lease back of all premises.
7. Raise 50 billion US Dollars which is immediately converted into Euros and Yen; this will be re
converted once the US Dollar drops 10% and the loan repaid.
By now I could see an easy source of making money so I asked her when they intended to make a friendly approach to the Board of HSBC to which the old lady responded; “We are going to launch a hostile bid on Friday April 1 2005.” It is time to raise all the funds I can and go long HSBC.
counter_violent
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user said:
Hi agn
Yes consolidation within a range, the same as on the way up with 650 ish being the top and a break through 360 to complete the pattern. A figure i believe you mentioned earlier in the thread.
As this thread is about the DOW and other markets, may I talk about the FTSE .
The market is being buoyed by bid speculation both real and unreal across nearly all sectors, this is good for the nimble and astute but in itself is not a good enough reason for the market to be at such lofty levels. Even when the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ fall, the FTSE at best gives up a few points which it promptly regains. There are many that feel the market is undervalued and use such absurd stats as – Earnings before Interest, tax, rent, wages, etc. Are these not business expenses which affect profitability? What is EBITDA? Surely when I buy a computer it loses value and I have to account for it; the depreciation/capital loss reduces my profits. Equally, when I borrow money to fund my business, it attracts interest which reduces profitability so what is the use of these funny terms?
Lion
Reading between the lines, I have great difficulty understanding why the FTSE is at current levels, but the price of the Dow and FTSE is what it is .....all will be revealed i'm sure lol.
One possibility...... the FTSE maybe propping up the DOW to some extent , although I find this hard to believe !!!!
User
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I would never believe that.
The day that happens, UK will be the NO1 economy and that will never happen either.
I think there is a great possibility for the pattern you've mentioned to occur.
The Dow rallied again but the NASDAQ posted a small gain in comparison to the others. In fairness I think the Dow has bounced from the 10400 mark. However 150points from the support level does not suggest more upward action to come. As suggested yesterday we need more confirmation. There is also a likelihood of a head and shoulders pattern developing. This week is busy in terms of data. What will happen? Well, we shall see.
For Wednesday’s action more gains are possible. A break of 10530 should lead us to test 10500. 10575 should lead us to test 10600.
More clarity of definite direction should be provided soon. Until then it is hard to comment on short term direction. Although I feel we will move towards 10600. We may not sustain that level though.
Good luck
The day that happens, UK will be the NO1 economy and that will never happen either.
I think there is a great possibility for the pattern you've mentioned to occur.
The Dow rallied again but the NASDAQ posted a small gain in comparison to the others. In fairness I think the Dow has bounced from the 10400 mark. However 150points from the support level does not suggest more upward action to come. As suggested yesterday we need more confirmation. There is also a likelihood of a head and shoulders pattern developing. This week is busy in terms of data. What will happen? Well, we shall see.
For Wednesday’s action more gains are possible. A break of 10530 should lead us to test 10500. 10575 should lead us to test 10600.
More clarity of definite direction should be provided soon. Until then it is hard to comment on short term direction. Although I feel we will move towards 10600. We may not sustain that level though.
Good luck
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User
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The Dow currently at 10580.
Interesting developments as the VIX index is approaching the same lowest ever levels of 23/12/04 and we all know what happened when January came :!:
Its not definate yet but 10600-30 could fail, VIX should fall to the lows again and then we should fall to 10200 no problem!
I am feeling tempted to add to my shorts.
Who knows maybe a half point rate hike would trigger it or a stinking jobs number tomarrow.
Lets see how it develops.
Interesting developments as the VIX index is approaching the same lowest ever levels of 23/12/04 and we all know what happened when January came :!:
Its not definate yet but 10600-30 could fail, VIX should fall to the lows again and then we should fall to 10200 no problem!
I am feeling tempted to add to my shorts.
Who knows maybe a half point rate hike would trigger it or a stinking jobs number tomarrow.
Lets see how it develops.
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Salty Gibbon
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Go on User, be a devil.
Short the b*****d !
Short the b*****d !
Salty Gibbon
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Got a feeling that Greenspan might help it on its way this evening.
Gonna put on my shorting boots after dinner.
tradesmart
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I’d be surprised if Alan tanked the markets ahead of his boss's ‘State of the Union’ address this evening……
Could be construed as unpatriotic……!
He could find himself packed off to Guantanamo Bay on a financial terrorism charge...
(without trial.....)
edit - 21.00 - indexes in the green - even Alan wouldn't stoop to financial treason on his boss's big night........! (even if he is that way inclined....... )
Could be construed as unpatriotic……!
He could find himself packed off to Guantanamo Bay on a financial terrorism charge...
(without trial.....)
edit - 21.00 - indexes in the green - even Alan wouldn't stoop to financial treason on his boss's big night........! (even if he is that way inclined.......
)
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Salty Gibbon
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Which Union is that then ?
Dubya's Union of fascist crooks ?
tradesmart
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Salty - you'll end up at Guantanamo Bay as well.........!....
