peterpr
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LION63 said:
That seems to me to be the bulls strongest argument. My understanding of the proposed change is that it will effectively force massive new money into US equities. If that is correct it certainly will provide serious price support at the very least. BUT ... as you say, what is the time-frame? It's a complex and controversial proposal that will be subjected to detailed scrutiny and require multi-month implementation lead times at least. Unlikely to be a major factor in US market direction for 2005 in other words.
User
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The Dow jones is clearly sitting above support at 10600. Bear in mind this was also a resistance point on the way up a while back.
Short Dow Jones on any breach of 10580.
Near term target of 10400.
As I mentioned in this thread before on a yearly outlook. 2005 will be a down year. A breach of 10,000 will be likely and much lower infact. It is important to get the timing of this down move correct.
The Dow uptrend is still intact. Steam seems to be running out. We shall see how the year will unfold. I firmly believe this year to be a down year. It should prove to be volatile and could be rewarding for trading.
Short Dow Jones on any breach of 10580.
Near term target of 10400.
As I mentioned in this thread before on a yearly outlook. 2005 will be a down year. A breach of 10,000 will be likely and much lower infact. It is important to get the timing of this down move correct.
The Dow uptrend is still intact. Steam seems to be running out. We shall see how the year will unfold. I firmly believe this year to be a down year. It should prove to be volatile and could be rewarding for trading.
User
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Not a bad move so far. We could see some inrtraday moves towards 10450 in the next few days
Target 10400.
If the Dow reaches 10400 then at that point a short term long may be considered.
Yesterday 10500 held well for the Dow Jones but a massive down day today but we still close above 10500 implicating good support. The chart formation along with the Vix still indicate further weakness. Next move 10400.
Goodluck
Target 10400.
If the Dow reaches 10400 then at that point a short term long may be considered.
Yesterday 10500 held well for the Dow Jones but a massive down day today but we still close above 10500 implicating good support. The chart formation along with the Vix still indicate further weakness. Next move 10400.
Goodluck
User
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Today’s close shows the direction of the trend for the year. We will see 9750 taken out this year and more volatility will definitely enter this market as the highs hit in December could well have been our top for this move which started in March 2003.
More selling is on the cards.
The Dow and NASDAQ and now even the S&P are starting to unwind. The Nikkei has started following suit. The FTSE and other Indicies have held up well. However 4700 on the FTSE100 should be seen before the end of this month.
Please give more opinions and analysis as I like reading optimistic views and find them rather amusing.
More selling is on the cards.
The Dow and NASDAQ and now even the S&P are starting to unwind. The Nikkei has started following suit. The FTSE and other Indicies have held up well. However 4700 on the FTSE100 should be seen before the end of this month.
Please give more opinions and analysis as I like reading optimistic views and find them rather amusing.
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User
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So we have reached my initial target of 10400.
My position is closed giving us 170 points.
We are currently penetrating 10400 as the market is not yet closed.
A close below 10400 could be highly bearish and should lead us to 10200 soon. On the other hand a close above 10400 could give short term strength possibly on Monday which would be an opportunity to enter shorts again.
I will keep you updated if any one would like to follow advice for trading the markets.
Look at the chart posted earliar as this corroborates my view.
Regards
User
My position is closed giving us 170 points.
We are currently penetrating 10400 as the market is not yet closed.
A close below 10400 could be highly bearish and should lead us to 10200 soon. On the other hand a close above 10400 could give short term strength possibly on Monday which would be an opportunity to enter shorts again.
I will keep you updated if any one would like to follow advice for trading the markets.
Look at the chart posted earliar as this corroborates my view.
Regards
User
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I did feel the Dow would close above 10400. As far as the chart is concerned we have more weakness to come. 2005 will be a down year for indicies as:
-The first year of presidential election is usually a down year for indicies.
-The move in January is portrayed overall for the year’s trend ahead.
-The first 2weeks of January are normally more positive then the last 2 weeks.
-The Vix is still low and is sitting at 14.362
-The chart implies further weakness as 10400 is breached at the close.
-Also the earnings are not bad/mixed but we're trading the future not the present.
-Interest rates seem to be going higher and that adds more pressure on corporates to obtain higher earnings.
-Oil is also dampening the outlook, $50 a barrel seems to be round the corner but that won't be sustained for long we should see $40 a barrel breached before we see $60 a barrel.
This is all implying further weakness and optimistic outlooks of 11,000 seem very far fetched.
10050 seems likely at this stage.
All shall be revealed soon.
-The first year of presidential election is usually a down year for indicies.
-The move in January is portrayed overall for the year’s trend ahead.
-The first 2weeks of January are normally more positive then the last 2 weeks.
-The Vix is still low and is sitting at 14.362
-The chart implies further weakness as 10400 is breached at the close.
-Also the earnings are not bad/mixed but we're trading the future not the present.
-Interest rates seem to be going higher and that adds more pressure on corporates to obtain higher earnings.
-Oil is also dampening the outlook, $50 a barrel seems to be round the corner but that won't be sustained for long we should see $40 a barrel breached before we see $60 a barrel.
This is all implying further weakness and optimistic outlooks of 11,000 seem very far fetched.
10050 seems likely at this stage.
All shall be revealed soon.
Hi User
I would say an intraday trader follow some cycles & TA & EW stuff. have not got to grips properly with Fibs, but I would say a lot of the time i would trade better if I went with my gut reaction but always a bit scared as it is usually a bit of a gamble but would pay off if I maybe held longer.Sometimes my swings have gone far too much the other way too loose stops.
Rustic
I would say an intraday trader follow some cycles & TA & EW stuff. have not got to grips properly with Fibs, but I would say a lot of the time i would trade better if I went with my gut reaction but always a bit scared as it is usually a bit of a gamble but would pay off if I maybe held longer.Sometimes my swings have gone far too much the other way too loose stops.
Rustic
User
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No it doesn't have a huge task. The year ending with five is not a bad stat to go by but the problem is that we are clashing with other stats like the ones mentioned above.
The highs can be tested as we are only 400 points away and that’s not much. But no chance, we are not going to the highs. Instead we are going to the lows. The Dow Is not oversold yet although we could get a bounce but that'll only be an opportunity to short the DOW and traders shouldn't get confused with thinking that we might be back to the highs again.
Interest rates will increase as the fed is forced too. The Fed left the increases to late in the first place. These rises will dampen corporate earnings along with consumer spending and the housing markets of the UK, Australia and US will be corrected soon.
Of course that is all fundamental talking but our trading should be technical. So don't forget that, don't condition yourself to believe one direction just because that’s the way you want things to go. 'Follow the trend'. The trend is down and that just happens to corroborate with the current fundamental issues.
9750 should be seen this year.
The highs can be tested as we are only 400 points away and that’s not much. But no chance, we are not going to the highs. Instead we are going to the lows. The Dow Is not oversold yet although we could get a bounce but that'll only be an opportunity to short the DOW and traders shouldn't get confused with thinking that we might be back to the highs again.
Interest rates will increase as the fed is forced too. The Fed left the increases to late in the first place. These rises will dampen corporate earnings along with consumer spending and the housing markets of the UK, Australia and US will be corrected soon.
Of course that is all fundamental talking but our trading should be technical. So don't forget that, don't condition yourself to believe one direction just because that’s the way you want things to go. 'Follow the trend'. The trend is down and that just happens to corroborate with the current fundamental issues.
9750 should be seen this year.
roguetrader
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Interesting article in Barron's entitled "The Next Leg Up Remains on Hold" essentially suggesting we have a strong possibility of another run at the highs.
Salty Gibbon
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What was the gist of the Barron's article ?
Tried to read it but you can only get access if you are a subscriber.
Tried to read it but you can only get access if you are a subscriber.
User
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http://www.fsponline-recommends.co....4012&PageID=2098280075&tc=MWK4K047&u=mwk04214
Some of you may want to read the link above, I received it from ADVFN. I think its a fleet street publication. I don't really think much of their articles as their always trying to sell stuff but this one has some decent basic info.
Where can I access this article from: "The Next Leg up Remains on Hold”?
Seems like a funny article. lol
Oh and the above link corroborates with Jim Rogers views. This guys a fundamental trader.
Even if your technical traders like me, you still may enjoy reading and sharing fundamental views as I always find economic issues interesting.
Some of you may want to read the link above, I received it from ADVFN. I think its a fleet street publication. I don't really think much of their articles as their always trying to sell stuff but this one has some decent basic info.
Where can I access this article from: "The Next Leg up Remains on Hold”?
Seems like a funny article. lol
Oh and the above link corroborates with Jim Rogers views. This guys a fundamental trader.
Even if your technical traders like me, you still may enjoy reading and sharing fundamental views as I always find economic issues interesting.
roguetrader
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The article was written by a technical analyst called Michael Khan. He points to the major trend being up, with the January correction knocking back a lot of excessive investor enthusiasm to levels more conducive to gains.
He lists the unbroken trend from the August low in the NYSE and the Nasdaq. He cites wave patterns suggest one more leg up in the current bull run that began at the October 2002 low. . The S&P500 did not reach the widely folowed 61.8% retracement of the move down from the highs to that low, that level would suggest a run for the S&P500 to 1253.
The fact that the actual NYSE advance-decline line is still rising. Here he sides with another technical analyst, Carl Swenlin who says "If this (January weakness) is indeed the beginning of a new bear market, it is starting from a position of unusually broad participation, so I think the odds are against this being the end of the bull market."
He lists the unbroken trend from the August low in the NYSE and the Nasdaq. He cites wave patterns suggest one more leg up in the current bull run that began at the October 2002 low. . The S&P500 did not reach the widely folowed 61.8% retracement of the move down from the highs to that low, that level would suggest a run for the S&P500 to 1253.
The fact that the actual NYSE advance-decline line is still rising. Here he sides with another technical analyst, Carl Swenlin who says "If this (January weakness) is indeed the beginning of a new bear market, it is starting from a position of unusually broad participation, so I think the odds are against this being the end of the bull market."
The year of (usual) ascension
To me it all comes down to investors´ preference of stocks versus cash...and let´s see...1)interest rates are moving up 2) stocks valuations already reflect remendous growth expectations 3) insiders obviously prefer their wages over their stocks at the moment, as insider selling has gone manic recently.
The widespread acceptance of stocks today as THE king of investments has become frantically absurd, even after an 80% NASDAQ decline, people still seem to regard minority ownership in low or no dividend paying companies as safe.
At the very least, everyone seems so beset with trading range expectations that the market is bound to react with, well, a huge trend. A strong uptrend from here would require, by way of valuation, a mania fully compatible with 2000. So I say :arrowd: .
User, great call on Jan 3!
To me it all comes down to investors´ preference of stocks versus cash...and let´s see...1)interest rates are moving up 2) stocks valuations already reflect remendous growth expectations 3) insiders obviously prefer their wages over their stocks at the moment, as insider selling has gone manic recently.
The widespread acceptance of stocks today as THE king of investments has become frantically absurd, even after an 80% NASDAQ decline, people still seem to regard minority ownership in low or no dividend paying companies as safe.
At the very least, everyone seems so beset with trading range expectations that the market is bound to react with, well, a huge trend. A strong uptrend from here would require, by way of valuation, a mania fully compatible with 2000. So I say :arrowd: .
User, great call on Jan 3!
User
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I entered the Dow Short again at current levels. I wasn't too happy with the close below 10400. You may want to wait and possibly enter shorts during todays session. Thanks for your post halldorpb.
I think we could well get a case of extreme oversold levels. I don't think we have finished this short term down move yet.
I think we could well get a case of extreme oversold levels. I don't think we have finished this short term down move yet.
