I agree with (USER), with issues on Interest Rates/Eanings/Oil and Deficit in the states I find it difficult to favour stocks. Been short on the first wave down at begining of year and again last week @ 10.475. Taking the low 04 and high 05, we've got some fib targets watch (61.85 = 10,180 50%=10.312). I believe there are still a lot of bullish people out there (Pension & Institutional especially), we're not going to go any higher if everyone's still long. Hence, we will see a low before a high and when the Institution starts selling, panic creeps in.
peterpr
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Anyone who thinks the US is in for a sustained bull run through 2005 should read the following article from Sprott Asset Management (among a host of others similar I could point you at): http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/01-17-2005.pdf.
Among the more startling statistics quoted, consider this:
"The net liabilities of the US government now stand at $46 trillion, an increase of $11 trillion over the previous fiscal year. To put this in perspective, the GDP of the United States was about $11 trillion last year. To wit, the ‘deficit’ that was incurred by the government in one year was equivalent to the entire economic output of the country that same year. This puts a whole new meaning to the word ‘recklessness’. To put another perspective on how unfathomable this sum is, it amounts to almost $2000 for every man, woman, and child on the planet! "
Their current account deficit already soaks up over 80% of total world savings as well - so just how much longer will it continue I wonder?
Just another teeny 'worry' item to add to the wall of worry that markets always climb before re-establishing contact with reality I guess - but re-establish it they will (one day - or rather over a messy few months/years) and I reckon it will be pretty ugly when it happens.
Sod all to do with trading of course - just provides a little bias to my TA that's all.
Among the more startling statistics quoted, consider this:
"The net liabilities of the US government now stand at $46 trillion, an increase of $11 trillion over the previous fiscal year. To put this in perspective, the GDP of the United States was about $11 trillion last year. To wit, the ‘deficit’ that was incurred by the government in one year was equivalent to the entire economic output of the country that same year. This puts a whole new meaning to the word ‘recklessness’. To put another perspective on how unfathomable this sum is, it amounts to almost $2000 for every man, woman, and child on the planet! "
Their current account deficit already soaks up over 80% of total world savings as well - so just how much longer will it continue I wonder?
Just another teeny 'worry' item to add to the wall of worry that markets always climb before re-establishing contact with reality I guess - but re-establish it they will (one day - or rather over a messy few months/years) and I reckon it will be pretty ugly when it happens.
Sod all to do with trading of course - just provides a little bias to my TA that's all.
User
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Nice to see people expressing their views. Interesting notions.
If you haven't entered short yet, then you may consider doing so now!
Nasdaq still showing weakness with the S&P and Dow getting a little bounce higher. If the Dow was to close below 10400 again then more short term weakness is implied. However a close above 10400 will see us playing with 10400 and also moves upto 10450 would be seen.
Goodluck
If you haven't entered short yet, then you may consider doing so now!
Nasdaq still showing weakness with the S&P and Dow getting a little bounce higher. If the Dow was to close below 10400 again then more short term weakness is implied. However a close above 10400 will see us playing with 10400 and also moves upto 10450 would be seen.
Goodluck
Peterpr,
I disagree that your post has "sod all to do with trading". That is what the lumps and lemmings would have us believe "it is all in the charts". By doing your own research and analysis as you are doing, you are able to stand aside from the masses and ensure that you do not get caught up in the stampede for the exits when it comes. Most traders do not make money so it is pointless doing what they do. Last week they were buying Google at $200 and saying it was undervalued; now the lumps see the price at $160 (or thereabouts) and believe there is a 20% off offer from the NASDAQ. Gearing up in the process and margined to the hilt. When the music stops many of them will be left without chairs.
I disagree that your post has "sod all to do with trading". That is what the lumps and lemmings would have us believe "it is all in the charts". By doing your own research and analysis as you are doing, you are able to stand aside from the masses and ensure that you do not get caught up in the stampede for the exits when it comes. Most traders do not make money so it is pointless doing what they do. Last week they were buying Google at $200 and saying it was undervalued; now the lumps see the price at $160 (or thereabouts) and believe there is a 20% off offer from the NASDAQ. Gearing up in the process and margined to the hilt. When the music stops many of them will be left without chairs.
User
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Today another close below 10400.
Even though we were playing with 10400 through out the session the Dow ended at the lowest point. The Nasdaq had a massive down move in comparison to the other indicies.
This week we should start touching 10350 and then should be onto 10300. The fact that the Dow is ending at the low points of the day does imply more weakness.
10240 should be seen soon.
These indicies are being dumped. Its to early to call the end of this bull market but personally I believe thats where we'll be heading. I strongly believe 9750 will be breached this year.
Nice views by members---carry on.
Even though we were playing with 10400 through out the session the Dow ended at the lowest point. The Nasdaq had a massive down move in comparison to the other indicies.
This week we should start touching 10350 and then should be onto 10300. The fact that the Dow is ending at the low points of the day does imply more weakness.
10240 should be seen soon.
These indicies are being dumped. Its to early to call the end of this bull market but personally I believe thats where we'll be heading. I strongly believe 9750 will be breached this year.
Nice views by members---carry on.
Over the last few days it has been stated that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to be put to work and snap up bargains; the DOW has fallen too far too soon....All of 450 points or 4.7%. Stocks on PE ratios north of 17 are now presumed cheap; dividend yields of 0.5% are generous etc.
It is a pity that so many are getting sucked in by this nonsense, shares are supposed to be a means of increasing one's assets in the medium and short term but it is impossible to achieve this if one buys overvalued assets. The majority lose their nest eggs and shirts whilst a few shrewd individuals have sleepless nights counting the loot.
It is a pity that so many are getting sucked in by this nonsense, shares are supposed to be a means of increasing one's assets in the medium and short term but it is impossible to achieve this if one buys overvalued assets. The majority lose their nest eggs and shirts whilst a few shrewd individuals have sleepless nights counting the loot.
I don´t know what it is, but I just love stock market declines. May the good times last! Hurray, hurray, hurr...hey, what´s that feather and tar for?
On a slightly more serious note, I simply think that a world bear market in stocks is definitely due, plus a depression. I´m not trying to be negative or anything, but there is just no way this whole trading/investing mania can last forever. The market has become so exciting in the eyes of so many people (including myself), and the dollar so laughable a paper ("sorry sir, you have to pay for those dollars...preferrably with euros thank you") but then, my good friend Gann says the market always rises in year xxx5 (and has been right for a century), so I´ll probably just try to sleep off that insight of darkness.
Growl.
On a slightly more serious note, I simply think that a world bear market in stocks is definitely due, plus a depression. I´m not trying to be negative or anything, but there is just no way this whole trading/investing mania can last forever. The market has become so exciting in the eyes of so many people (including myself), and the dollar so laughable a paper ("sorry sir, you have to pay for those dollars...preferrably with euros thank you") but then, my good friend Gann says the market always rises in year xxx5 (and has been right for a century), so I´ll probably just try to sleep off that insight of darkness.
Growl.
peterpr
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LION63 said:
Well that's been my experience. The problems are the perennial ones of timing and timeframe. I probably do as much fundamental market research as the next man and I can see a pretty ugly few years ahead. But - and its a BIG BUT - unless I am VERY disciplined indeed about my trading, I tend to find my overall view colours/biases my short-term trading entries and exits in a counter-productive manner. My bearishness about market prospects generally causes me to enter shorts and call tops too early, miss rallies and generally obscure a truly objective reading of price/volume action unless I switch off my medium/long term view pretty well completely (and that's a damn sight easier said than done!).
In simple terms, day and swing trading - and to some extent position trading - can be undertaken very successfully by people who simply ingnore all the market chatter and just study the price/volume action. In fact my guess is that they are the most successful such traders.
Studying market macro-fundamentals is seductive and everyone likes to think themselves knowledgeable about such matters; but there's always someone who knows better; and I mean REALLY knows better - ie the ones who consistently take serious money from the markets as opposed to the 90% + 'traders' who lose money and quit.
User
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Fair point 'peterpr'
Anyway moving onto todays action I see today we had a rally in the US.
BUT the Dow Jones didnt finish at no high point, nor did it manage a triple digit gain. On the other hand the NASDAQ and S&P showed weakness. The Nasdaq only managed to keep half of its gains and similar stuff with the S&P. Not good in my book.
I entered a short again at 10500.
I think breaking 10360 would see us diving towards 10200.
Anyway moving onto todays action I see today we had a rally in the US.
BUT the Dow Jones didnt finish at no high point, nor did it manage a triple digit gain. On the other hand the NASDAQ and S&P showed weakness. The Nasdaq only managed to keep half of its gains and similar stuff with the S&P. Not good in my book.
I entered a short again at 10500.
I think breaking 10360 would see us diving towards 10200.
roguetrader
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Also interesting to note the Nasdaq put in its lowest volume day since the 18th, which coincidently was also an up day.
roguetrader
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frugi
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The INDU doesn't show gaps 
On YM there are two open gaps as saxo says -
Between 10371 and 10412 25/1
Between 10463 and 10497 26/1
I reckon they'll be filled soon unless we break 10532 tomorrow morning
By the way, saxo, I don't think anyone was out to criticise you personally or disrespect your analysis. A bit of healthy disagreement makes a market after all
On YM there are two open gaps as saxo says -
Between 10371 and 10412 25/1
Between 10463 and 10497 26/1
I reckon they'll be filled soon unless we break 10532 tomorrow morning
By the way, saxo, I don't think anyone was out to criticise you personally or disrespect your analysis. A bit of healthy disagreement makes a market after all
roguetrader
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Ah nice one frugi, Iwas sure there was a gap yesterday until I looked at the chart when saxo commented, I tend to pay more attention to the S&P which does show them. Sorry saxo
User
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Just because I don't agree with you 'saxo98', does not mean I'm 'rubbishing' you or 'twisting' what you say.
How boring would this world be if everybody agreed?
There are buyers and sellers in every market. If we all went one way then we wouldn’t have a market.
I'm not 100%. This thread is not a feud. I trade what I see, you trade what you see.
My apology, if you felt I was rubbishing your view of 14,000. If you think the Dow Jones will hit 14,000 and then come back down, then that’s fantastic!
It doesn't bother me if the Dow will hit 20,000 or 5,000. I'll trade it as I see it.
If anybody is offended by a view that might be different to theirs then please look away now and do not read any further.
Moving onto 'my perception' of today’s market action, the Dow Jones failed to close above 10500. On the other hand the NASDAQ had a strong day but it has been battered more then the other indicies recently. Another break on the downside could be looming in the short term as long as we consolidate below 10550. Watch 10480 on the down side. A break here should signal further weakness.
Good luck with tomorrow’s action.
How boring would this world be if everybody agreed?
There are buyers and sellers in every market. If we all went one way then we wouldn’t have a market.
I'm not 100%. This thread is not a feud. I trade what I see, you trade what you see.
My apology, if you felt I was rubbishing your view of 14,000. If you think the Dow Jones will hit 14,000 and then come back down, then that’s fantastic!
It doesn't bother me if the Dow will hit 20,000 or 5,000. I'll trade it as I see it.
If anybody is offended by a view that might be different to theirs then please look away now and do not read any further.
Moving onto 'my perception' of today’s market action, the Dow Jones failed to close above 10500. On the other hand the NASDAQ had a strong day but it has been battered more then the other indicies recently. Another break on the downside could be looming in the short term as long as we consolidate below 10550. Watch 10480 on the down side. A break here should signal further weakness.
Good luck with tomorrow’s action.
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User
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So today we broke through 10480 and went lower. I would have liked us to test 10400 but we didn't. Instead bounced back and closed down at 10467. The S&P and Nasdaq managed to stay positive.
The Dow could break through 10500 and if it doesn't spend much time playing with that area then we could see 10550. If any sustained upward action was to occur then 10630 would need to be broken as confirmation.
On the other hand a breach of 10430 should lead us to test the 10400 mark.
Either way my perception is that a big move could well be on the cards tomorrow.
Good luck all.
The Dow could break through 10500 and if it doesn't spend much time playing with that area then we could see 10550. If any sustained upward action was to occur then 10630 would need to be broken as confirmation.
On the other hand a breach of 10430 should lead us to test the 10400 mark.
Either way my perception is that a big move could well be on the cards tomorrow.
Good luck all.
