Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

We are finding a resistance level before the 10700 mark.....

At around 10685 area......5th attempt at this level right now on the 15min chart.....
 
Interesting stuff...

Dow closes near the highs of the day.....

We touch 10700 but close below

Nasdaq ends the day lower

S&P hits and closes above 1245 region....

Still two days of the week left and it wouldn't take much to end the week lower.....
 
gotta hand it to the market- looking very tidy. I think you are right to hold off the shorts Jilly B! I would not be doing anything ahead of the payrolls now.
 
They are pushing the futures out of hours again, how convenient... watch the futures move up a lot overnight... but there is no one about and a thin book.... easy..

And then, news will report... futures indicating a higher open... ah must be some good news and reason to buy think the punters....

Uh, no... just someone with a few bob able to move the book on thin way out of hours vols!
 
Hi Everyone,

Well, on Sunday I said that I believed there was more upside on the Dow to come before the big drop and I still think that.

From what I see tonight, there is definitely more upside to come - I think 10,720 is a real possibility and it may well go as high as 10,730/40 - for myself I would like to see this tomorrow or Friday. If we see this in the next day, or Friday, then the setup will be in place for the start of the big drop (in my opinion, for what it's worth).

As yet I have no short trades in place and I will be looking to the highs/close of tomorrows session to judge when I place them.

When the signal is in place, I shall post just to let everyone know and also what level I have got in at. (if it's of interest). :rolleyes:
 
kriesau said:
Don't necessarily buy into this (I've got stop shorts sitting there at the moment) but it is interesting nevertheless.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ifunds/050802/20050802_sevenreasonsforbull_com_etf_jb.html


Found this snippet about earnings
In September 2003, Investors Chronicle cited a study that confirmed that actual profits “explained only 14.7% of annual stock price moves” for the FTSE 100 for the eight-year period 1995-2003.

So you could say earnings don't really mean anything! I have noticed several companies that lowered guidance and yet the share price has gone up after the initial reaction!
 
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still sitting tight on the massive shorts - added a stop loss - which will help me "safeguard" my "capital"
and leave me with about enough to buy a couple of pints down the pub if it all goes horribly wrong :))

come on dow - 10570 today?!

*
 
Joules MM1 said:
Not allowed to over Karmit yourself ok :cheesy:

but ...seriously....

liked that one :)))

yes.. you're right.. point taken.

if I come out of this one in one piece (or in pieces!)... I'll NEVER EVER over-karmit again !!

cheers,
karmit
 
market heading down nicely at the moment, hopefully a test around 10580ish or maybe stop short around 10610 again,never the less i cant see us bursting through into hyperspace just yet.i think we're gonna stay range-bound leading up to the non-farm payrolls tommorow.the bhf banks consensus forecast is for an increase in payrolls from the previous 146k to between 180-200k. which is highly likely to have the affect of lifting the market right back up again. might be a good idea to do a bit of profit-takin this evening hmmm? :rolleyes:
 
Close at the highs yesterday now the lows today.. all the way up the hill and all the way back down again...
Completely nuts!
 
Markets closed near the lows of the session, however, we closed above 10600 on the Dow and above 1235 on the S&P.....

Is this the end of 10700?

Todays figures could be decisive......

Nikkei not doing too well.....

A downward move is on the cards soon.....but when is the real question........

We still have a possibilities of remaining at these levels for the whole of this month, although I see this scenario as not likely.

It seems that we will move towards 9800 once this decline gets underway......

Was Thursday's action the start of this forecasted move......

The major shorts are in place......time will tell......

At the moment the cash market is sitting at 10609....

That'll most likely be proped up before the figure is anounced.....

I wonder if that will be the last chance to sell......or is it 10700 again.....

Should be fun....

Good Luck
 
got plain lucky y'day... still shaking from the "thrill" - but will NEVER EVER "over-karmit" !!! :)
 
karmit said:
got plain lucky y'day... still shaking from the "thrill" - but will NEVER EVER "over-karmit" !!! :)

Glad to hear that! You need to take it steady though -all those thrills are not good for the trading soul - too much emotional 'karmit'ment! :LOL:

Up today I think - I know I said that for yesterday and I got it wrong. Bah humbug! What I didn't do was to check the 4 hour charts - because if I had done I would have seen a sell signal triggered at 4am yesterday morning. Today - no signals, so I'm sitting on the fence (no change there!)

I've started a journal thing too, just so I can list the signals that my system generates and my thoughts on it (quite a bit of rambling already) as it produces them. I thought it would be good way to make me keep to the system and to see if it works in reality - backtesting looked good, but trading in the real world is different. :rolleyes:
 
JillyB said:
Glad to hear that! You need to take it steady though -all those thrills are not good for the trading soul - too much emotional 'karmit'ment! :LOL:

Up today I think - I know I said that for yesterday and I got it wrong. Bah humbug! What I didn't do was to check the 4 hour charts - because if I had done I would have seen a sell signal triggered at 4am yesterday morning. Today - no signals, so I'm sitting on the fence (no change there!)

I've started a journal thing too, just so I can list the signals that my system generates and my thoughts on it (quite a bit of rambling already) as it produces them. I thought it would be good way to make me keep to the system and to see if it works in reality - backtesting looked good, but trading in the real world is different. :rolleyes:


true... I think I'll just relax and "baywatch" today... from a good couple of feet from the
keyboard :).... maybe place a short (only a bit!) if it moves towards 10720... ;)


have a nice trading day !

cheers,
karmit
 
karmit said:
true... I think I'll just relax and "baywatch" today... from a good couple of feet from the
keyboard :).... maybe place a short (only a bit!) if it moves towards 10720... ;)


have a nice trading day !

cheers,
karmit

10,720 would be a good level to enter a short trade. If it gets up there I think I will consider it as well. :cheesy:
 
User said:
Markets closed near the lows of the session, however, we closed above 10600 on the Dow and above 1235 on the S&P.....

Is this the end of 10700?

Todays figures could be decisive......

Nikkei not doing too well.....

A downward move is on the cards soon.....but when is the real question........

We still have a possibilities of remaining at these levels for the whole of this month, although I see this scenario as not likely.

It seems that we will move towards 9800 once this decline gets underway......

Was Thursday's action the start of this forecasted move......

The major shorts are in place......time will tell......

At the moment the cash market is sitting at 10609....

That'll most likely be proped up before the figure is anounced.....

I wonder if that will be the last chance to sell......or is it 10700 again.....

Should be fun....

Good Luck
The Dow breached its key support at 10570 on Friday afternoon and is now heading towards both its 200 and 50 MA's. The SPX and NDX also lost 20 & 24 pts respectively over the last 2 days. Has the down move toward the April low of 10,000 begun or will we see a final bounce back to retest 10700 yet again ?

It looks like 10700 has been established as the top of the recent 3 month bull rally but the big question is are we now moving into a wider 10500 - 10700 consolidation range or has a real retracement begun. I'm currently short and leaning toward the latter but there needs to be a convincing break down through 10500 to really validate this.
 
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