Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Economists fear the US property boom could sow the seeds of the next recession

 

[Racer]

The US runs 30yr Fixed rate mortgages, so anyone could, if they chose, lock in a very low rate for the duration of their mortgage. Whether they have, is another question.

A lot are now not even paying the interest

 

[Racer]

- Table Of Data On Construction Spending From Commerce


JUNE MAY APR.
(Dollar amounts In Billions - Not Adjusted For Inflation)
Total New Construction 1093.0 1096.0 1115.0
Percent Change -0.3 -1.7 -1.0
Private Construction 843.8 845.6 872.3
Percent Change -0.2 -3.1 -1.2
Residential 609.1 611.4 632.8
Percent Change -0.4 -3.5 -2.0
Public 249.2 250.3 242.7
Percent Change -0.5 3.2 0.1

 

[Racer]

11 adv V 19 dec

 

[User]

A touch towards 10700 today and then the start of a decline possibly today.....

 

[karmit]

hmm.... using my "bog standard TA", seems like a test of 10460 within 6 sessions...

 

[karmit]

A touch towards 10700 today and then the start of a decline possibly today.....

Technicals aside... do you feel there is anything else that might fuel (<--no pun!) this move?

 

[Racer]

A touch towards 10700 today and then the start of a decline possibly today.....

You think that is going to stop the bulls? Hmm, dunno, they are looking rather strong right now!

 

[User]

do you feel there is anything else that might fuel (<--no pun!) this move?

Money

You think that is going to stop the bulls? Hmm, dunno, they are looking rather strong right now!

looking rather strong right now!

Thats the problem......

Its distribution.......Thats the way to go.....

We are Topping?!.......Yes

The question is have we topped.....

Last hour should be fun......

I wouldn't be suprised if we start to give back the gains......

But nothing should be ruled out as the market is sitting at a important juncture and we shouldn't forget the range.....

 

[Racer]

I hope you are right user.. well I went long today so that must mean that is it going down! LOL

(I have already closed it though!)

 

[Racer]

H&S on the Dow target around 10645

 

[User]

I hope you are right user.. well I went long today so that must mean that is it going down! LOL

As I always say, Good Luck to all which ever direction you are in.....

I'm not choosing a direction and hoping it will be right.....

Well of course I'm hoping, but my approach is based on my analysis which I carry out taking many things into consideration and arrive to a conclusion which is firmly backed up by my research......

The conclusion is suggesting a definate down

We'll see what the results will show......

So far on the 15min chart a few good candles have shown up.......

I suggested 10700 and then a decline with a possible down day......

Well we've seen 10700, a double top on the 15min chart can also be seen.....

and now for the decline........

If we start to base at around 10670 then another attempt towards 10700 could be seen but that isn't likely in my opinion.......

Snap 10650 and then we're in trouble.......Well I won't be, but the bulls will be......

Good Luck Racer

 

[karmit]

crude oil futures are going mad - a nice short scalp in order...

 

[Minder]

Technicals aside... do you feel there is anything else that might fuel (<--no pun!) this move?

Money

Today is net drain day for the Fed and the Treasury. If I have the numbers correrct, the Fed has a net $3.5b of securities maturing today, while the Treasury is $5.5b.

The difficulty is we don't know which markets this money went into.

 

[User]

Last hour......

Crude hits $62......

We have no real correlation between the two as of yet but if the market declines we'll know what the pundits will say......

So come on Dow Drop!

 

[User]

We're not getting the decline but the Dow has problems with 10700 and the S&P with 1245....

If we see a market near 10700 in futures action tomorrow before the open it'll be worth selling....

Its critical stuff at the moment......

The market is looking so good that we're getting bullied into buying........don't get sucked in.....

I know its fustrating but patience is needed

 

[JillyB]

We're not getting the decline but the Dow has problems with 10700 and the S&P with 1245....

If we see a market near 10700 in futures action tomorrow before the open it'll be worth selling....

Its critical stuff at the moment......

The market is looking so good that we're getting bullied into buying........don't get sucked in.....

I know its fustrating but patience is needed

You're right, patience is needed. I believe there is more upside to come 10,700 is definite, in my opinion and we many even see 10,720, I wouldn't be surprised.

However I'm not placing any long trades at the moment - nor for that fact any shorts either. There is still no signal yet of a downturn and I am happy to sit quietly and wait for it.

If we see 10,720 then I will be considering entering a short trade here, but I will judge this at the time and evaluate the progress of the Dow at the time.

For now all I can say is - more upside ahead and a great time for sitting patiently on the fence and waiting.

 

[User]

Will we even see 10700 today? :arrowd:

Or Will we just have a one touch at 10700 today? :arrowl:

Or Will we just smash through 10700 today? :arrowu:

So many questions need answering........ :arrowd: :arrowl: :arrowu:

It may well be that Tuesday's double top touch at 10700 on the 15min chart was the last of this level........... :arrowd:

Why do I say this? Because the expectation of testing 10700 once again is extremely high...... :arrowu:

Either way it should be exciting.........
:arrowu: :arrowd: :arrowl:

 

[kriesau]

Dow Cash Futures currently down 24pts.
Oil above $62.
No Dow component companies reporting today.

 

[Racer]

Either way it should be exciting.........
:arrowu: :arrowd: :arrowl:

Very decisive on direction there eh