Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[london_lad]

I am thinking to short spx now. What do you guys think.

Btw folks, try this if you want to on SPX. It worked twice in past few days in response to news.

pull up 15m chart on SPX, on 1st sep as well as yesterday. As soon as the news came out, the spike of the news (either direction) reversed at the second candle (on 15 m chart) with reversal candle pattern. I am thinking go in reverse direction at the start of 4th candle and hold it for 20 to 30 more minutes. Stop loss at the max of 3rd candle.

To illustrate more. For yesterday, my entry would have been 994.7 with stop loss at 991.9 and exit at at 999.

What do you guys think?

 

[masnachu]

be funny if nothing happens at 13.30 :cheesy:

everyone tense yet ?

 

[kaisen]

Sorry to sound stupid but how does this work. The way i look at it you are in a narrow 11 point range? i would really appreciate you explanation. For what its worth I am long the DAX, and have been since yesterday evening, as US futures point to a higher start, and as WS pointed out in an earlier post, perhaps some people know what the 1.30 figures are likely to be before the rest of us!!![/I]

Hi Pentlow,

My theory which has worked, was that price was consolidated and as ws highlighted it was either going to push on and make new highs or fade from the double top.
Rather than making a prediction as this is very difficult to do, I placed two stop orders away from the consolidated price action allowed the market to show me which way it was going.
Once my long was filled i cancelled my short (although i am tempted to replace with a new sell stop)

The trade gave me +9pnts as i dont like being in around news time and fib levels suggest an area of resistance.

 

[london_lad]

I am thinking to short spx now. What do you guys think.

Btw folks, try this if you want to on SPX. It worked twice in past few days in response to news.

pull up 15m chart on SPX, on 1st sep as well as yesterday. As soon as the news came out, the spike of the news (either direction) reversed at the second candle (on 15 m chart) with reversal candle pattern. I am thinking go in reverse direction at the start of 3rd candle and hold it for 20 to 30 more minutes. Stop loss at the max of 2nd candle.

To illustrate more. For yesterday, my entry would have been 994.7 with stop loss at 991.9 and exit at at 999.

What do you guys think?

Waiting for close of second candle.

 

[fast trader7]

Closed for 15 point profit on dax. But wow! the market spiked afterwards
I was a bit lucky

 

[london_lad]

looks like markets digested the news in just 15 minutes

 

[london_lad]

whoever had a stop loss on 1010 for a short would be ****ting himself This is stoploss hunting

 

[london_lad]

The pattern isnt same because its before market opening hours.

 

[wallstreet1928]

I think its OK to say its liquidation time

FTSE double top @ 4850 on hourly about to be confirmed and then down we go chaps

Dollar on the move northwards ...........

oil 67.7 ...key level!!

euro ............timberrrrrr

 

[papak]

shorted FTSE at 4857, exited with 10 pts profit, now short from 4860 stop 4880. Will let this run for a while see what it does. think we go down from here...

Am long SP500 from 1001.3 (stop now at BE)so a nice hedge there.

 

[dr.blix]

US futures up and that's just on the forecast non-farm figures, not the actual figures which are obviously better.

shame about the unemployment rate being poo though.

 

[pentlow1]

Hi Pentlow,

My theory which has worked, was that price was consolidated and as ws highlighted it was either going to push on and make new highs or fade from the double top.
Rather than making a prediction as this is very difficult to do, I placed two stop orders away from the consolidated price action allowed the market to show me which way it was going.
Once my long was filled i cancelled my short (although i am tempted to replace with a new sell stop)

The trade gave me +9pnts as i dont like being in around news time and fib levels suggest an area of resistance.

Many thanks i understand what you were doing now. Good luck today.

 

[dr.blix]

gotta say gents, i can't see the FTSE dropping below 825 (and now i've said that, it will of course, sink like a stone).

i think the volume is low in the US, so unless there's a sell-off over there, maybe we'll just float about here??

there was a 10 pt drop below my trend line yesterday, if she drops over 10 pts this afternoon (breaching 808) then i'll start to think there might be something happening.

i have both MA's (21 + 125) plus a trendline support at 825 on the H1.

 

[london_lad]

shorted FTSE at 4857, exited with 10 pts profit, now short from 4860 stop 4880. Will let this run for a while see what it does. think we go down from here...

Am long SP500 from 1001.3 (stop now at BE)so a nice hedge there.

papak, that's a nice and brave long entry. What made you think the market will go upwards to enter that position in first spike?

 

[wallstreet1928]

I think its OK to say its liquidation time

FTSE double top @ 4850 on hourly about to be confirmed and then down we go chaps

Dollar on the move northwards ...........

oil 67.7 ...key level!!

euro ............timberrrrrr

esterminate , esterminate

all indices exterminate

 

[dr.blix]

i know this is only a 15TF, but there was a gap up on the 2nd, this little t line is being respected thus far.

 

[Geofract]

E$ h3 bias changed to short on the recent breach of the overnight lows - price currently finding support from the lows of the 1st/2nd September.

I would love to short at 1.4240/50 area, but too much work to do this week, and deadline looming.

I am slightly put off by the fact the h3 bias has changed from long to short so often recently, but i would still take the short anyway, subject to 2m bias change confirmation, and ability to get small stop.

Hope you're all having a fab day grabbing points & pips!

 

[wallstreet1928]

bear flag on 10 min .......

key level is 4855 once again ?

 

[wallstreet1928]

As promised, non-farm payrolls triggered a tremendous amount of volatility in the currency market. The knee jerk sell-off in the dollar was quickly erased, giving us the V shaped price action that is typical of the EUR/USD’s reaction to payrolls. For the 20th month in a row, the U.S. economy has endured negative job growth but the pace of layoffs have cleared slowed. Non-farm payrolls fell by 216k in August, the fewest in the past 12 months. This was better than the market had anticipated since the expectations was for a drop of 230k. The July data was revised only modestly lower from -247k to -276k. The big surprise was in the unemployment rate which rose to 9.7 percent the highest level since June 1983. The dollar sold off aggressively when traders saw the unemployment rate print because the market had only anticipated a rise to 9.5 percent.

However there is no question that the trajectory of payrolls has improved, which has brought relief to the currency market and helped the dollar recovered its gains after traders realized that the report was not that bad. With the initial post payroll volatility settling and the holiday weekend looming, the dollar should hold onto its gains.

Yet because companies are not firing as aggressively as they were in the beginning of the year, does not mean that the labor market has really improved. In our non-farm payrolls preview, we talked about how the health of the labor market depends upon what type of yardstick you are measuring things by – the word on the street or the official reports. Today, the household survey confirmed the struggle of many Americans that are without jobs, which is that unemployment rate remains painfully high. U.S. officials have also warned that the unemployment rate could rise even as the labor market and the economy improves. This report is right in line with the Federal Reserve's expectations and will therefore not alter their plans for exit.

Why is there Such a Big Difference Between NFP and Jobless Rate?

The Establishment survey which gives us the payrolls report gives us a more comprehensive look at the labor market because it gathers data directly from 400k companies whereas the Household survey which gives us the unemployment rate only surveys 60k households. Part of the divergence between these two surveys comes from the possibility that the household survey includes people who may have been self employed as consultants or poor recent immigrants working under the table. Unfortunately based upon this morning’s report, those people are losing their jobs.

The manufacturing sector also saw the 21st consecutive month of negative job growth but one good thing is that average hourly earnings have increased.

When Will the U.S. Labor Market Return to Growth?

For the time being, the trajectory of non-farm payrolls continues to look eerily similar to that of the 1980s (as indicated in the chart below). Assuming that this correlation continues, we could see positive job growth by the first quarter of next year if not sooner. Monster.com has already reported an increase in online job advertisements which is a step in the right direction.

 

[london_lad]

papak: do you trade $50 a point for SP500? what's your minimum trade size from your broker? If you dont mind me asking?