Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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fast trader7
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What a day guys. Just unbelievable! is this the start of correction everybody is talking about?
I am planning to go to money show in London tomorrow.
All are welcome
I am off now. Have a good weekend
I am planning to go to money show in London tomorrow.
All are welcome
I am off now. Have a good weekend
SabreTT
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sell on the news, profit taking
now might be a good time for a come back between now and close, if sp500 stays above 1046
TZ Futures
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Hope everyone is covering themselves on any long positions. Been a hectic day here!!!
Just to let u know that is there is considerable support at the FTSE 100 daily level of the magical 5000. All remaining shorts have been closed at 5008 and we have gone long on again targeting 5037 (daily NOT futures as most people on here prefer daily price I have been told.)
Just to let u know that is there is considerable support at the FTSE 100 daily level of the magical 5000. All remaining shorts have been closed at 5008 and we have gone long on again targeting 5037 (daily NOT futures as most people on here prefer daily price I have been told.)
kaisen
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Only that that is one variable. Oil and the €$ are other variables to watch.
A rather large head and shoulders on the oil 10m chart - question is will 7745 hold or will be going down to 7710?
TZ Futures
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Great Halloween for Traders and the Stock Market - Scary stuff!
The word is that this sell-off will be continued on Monday afternoon with the FTSE daily going below 5000.
Apart from the initial 5000 level, the next supports are 4958 and then 4915.
All the best,
Lakhan
The word is that this sell-off will be continued on Monday afternoon with the FTSE daily going below 5000.
Apart from the initial 5000 level, the next supports are 4958 and then 4915.
All the best,
Lakhan
TZ Futures
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Medium-Long term view: There are plenty of fund managers waiting for the dip in the market to get in as many have missed the huge rally since the March lows, this will be an ideal opportunity for them and hence push the markets higher by the year end.
I predict around 5300-5400 for the FTSE 100
S&P at 1150-1200
Wall St at 10200-10300
Oil at $85-90
Gold at 1050-1100
GBP/USD at 1.69-1.70
I predict around 5300-5400 for the FTSE 100
S&P at 1150-1200
Wall St at 10200-10300
Oil at $85-90
Gold at 1050-1100
GBP/USD at 1.69-1.70
foredog
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These things only work until they don't.
Use stuff like that as a guide rather than a hard and fast rule. Lots of the time oil or gold will be cited as the reason something moves but next time that move happens oil or gold are unchanged.
Not much help i know.
Long term, I take the opposite view ... in 2010, March lows will be tested, if not taken out ...
ultimate targets are ...
S&P 550
FTSE 2,900
DOW 5,500
Thanks for your views.These things only work until they don't.
Use stuff like that as a guide rather than a hard and fast rule. Lots of the time oil or gold will be cited as the reason something moves but next time that move happens oil or gold are unchanged.
Not much help i know.
wallstreet1928
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wallstreet1928
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SabreTT
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I will call in my longer term target of 4500 for the ftse at year end or so.
We have a fairly steady currency at the moment and theres no reason to not take profits should people start judging the easy money is over. Investors will stay in and I dont think we have a crash but a fallback would be normal and healthy even.
4500 is large volume support beyond 5000 and previous resistance.
Right now eur/jpy is stuck in a downtrend and sp500 has recovered some only to get caught similarly
Apparently CIT has problems as well as poor consumer figures? 70% of usa economy is consumer based
s3 on spy is 103.52 I would be surprised if we really closed this negative or stayed this way on monday even but Im not aware of the news exactly or sentiment even :|
We have a fairly steady currency at the moment and theres no reason to not take profits should people start judging the easy money is over. Investors will stay in and I dont think we have a crash but a fallback would be normal and healthy even.
4500 is large volume support beyond 5000 and previous resistance.
Right now eur/jpy is stuck in a downtrend and sp500 has recovered some only to get caught similarly
Apparently CIT has problems as well as poor consumer figures? 70% of usa economy is consumer based
s3 on spy is 103.52 I would be surprised if we really closed this negative or stayed this way on monday even but Im not aware of the news exactly or sentiment even :|
Dentalfloss
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from another website
Near-term fundamentals
Looking at the OECD data from June, we see that production is at 2007 levels, but consumption is down by 7.2% when we compare June 2007 to June 2009. Inventories are also up by 200 million barrels since then. When we focus on the United States, the numbers become more apparent. In July of 2009, the U.S. consumed just 581.9 million barrels, 9.5% less than 2007. In fact, the last time the U.S. consumed so little oil in the month of July was back to 1997! Inventories, though much lower than in the months of April and May, are still much higher than their 5-year average. Clearly, in the short term, we should see a retreat at least 10% below 2007 levels, which would peg oil at US$65 within the next year.
Near-term fundamentals
Looking at the OECD data from June, we see that production is at 2007 levels, but consumption is down by 7.2% when we compare June 2007 to June 2009. Inventories are also up by 200 million barrels since then. When we focus on the United States, the numbers become more apparent. In July of 2009, the U.S. consumed just 581.9 million barrels, 9.5% less than 2007. In fact, the last time the U.S. consumed so little oil in the month of July was back to 1997! Inventories, though much lower than in the months of April and May, are still much higher than their 5-year average. Clearly, in the short term, we should see a retreat at least 10% below 2007 levels, which would peg oil at US$65 within the next year.
Da.DesiTrader
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USD/YEN had a selloff in tandem with FTSE. I know, cause i was watching both.
TZ Futures
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Wow! you think the economy is going into depression?
This will definately not happen, I tell you why, Europe and America are in sh*t with debt coming out of their ears being the biggest problem....But have you taken a look at whats happening in Asia? They will be the saviours for the world economy, signs are already there.
Anyway, switching off now had enough for one day!
Have a great weekend and see you monday!
wallstreet1928
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Weak Dollar Can Only Work So Long
By ITMS on October 30th, 2009 5:08pm Eastern Time
On March 9th 2009 the DXY(U.S. Dollar index) was trading at high at 89.10. The DXY is the U.S Dollar verses a basket of the six largest currencies. This time frame in March was the low for the stock market as the SPX was trading around 667.00. The dollar was strong as the fear in the market was at it's greatest level since the "Great Depression." Investors and traders alike were looking to hold U.S. Dollars more than any other currency or commodity. It is important to remember that the dollar is the worlds reserve currency. Most of the commodities in the world including oil are traded in U.S. Dollars and British Pound. With the exception of gold when fear hits the marketplace investors want U.S. Dollars and not the Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee, or even the Euro. They simply want U.S. Dollars. The only other currency that any investor or trader should want is plain gold and silver. Gold and silver have been the real currencies since the beginning of time and we suppose this will remain the case until the end of time. That being said, if you don't own gold it is proven that in times of panic investors want U.S. Dollars. Since the dollar began it's decline the market has had a rally for the ages. This is the best rally since 1930 after the 1929 stock crash. The only bad thing about the 50 percent rally in 1930 was that it declined to new all-time lows after the 50 percent bounce.
Then we must ask ourselves a simple question, why has the dollar declined the way it has since the March 2009 low? On October 21st 2009 the DXY hit a low of 75.00. This is a decline of nearly 16 percent from it's March 2009 peak when the DXY was at 89.00. The dollar was apparently driven lower to boost the stock market. The marketplace has been flooded once again with cheap money or in other words lots of printed money. This does benefit many multinational companies that export their goods. It also benefits many foreigners who can buy cheap U.S. goods and services. The problem is what does the U.S. really produce? The U.S. has become a service industry nation over the past 30 years. The weak dollar does not benefit the U.S. citizen that makes their living in the United States. The retired citizens that live in America are not benefiting at all from a weak dollar policy as they are having their so called savings vanish in thin air as they sleep. The weak dollar would also cause goods to increase at stores such as Walmart who import virtually everything they sell. Now the consumer must pay more for imported goods. What about the flood of so called baby boomers that are set to retire soon? How does a weak dollar benefit them? They will soon be in the same boat as the retiree. The only people that benefit from the weak dollar are the foreigner and other nations in the long run. So why is the Fed and the Treasury so bent on having a weak dollar policy?
There can only be one answer to the weak dollar policy and we do not believe it is to boost weak U.S. tourism or have more foreign investment. It must simply be to fight deflation as there does not seem to be any other logical reason. When oil reached $147/barrel in July 2008 on the back of the weak U.S. Dollar it was one of the catalyst that broke the market. The U.S. consumer could not absorb that kind of spike in oil and it probably cannot absorb $80/barrel oil at this time. Deflation is interesting subject, the Japanese have been dealing with deflation since 1989 and still have not found a solution or cure for the problem. The move to push for a weak dollar was an obvious attempt to get public confidence higher resulting in a consumer spending binge. Inflate the market at all costs seems to be the current plan. Stimulus from all angles has been and is being thrown at the consumer such as the "cash for clunkers program," $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, bailouts for the so called "too big to fail institutions," and bailouts for the car companies.
What ever happened to good old capitalism when bad business was bad business and companies were held accountable and actually failed? Why have the regional banks been allowed to fail and not bailed out? Instead of "too big to fail" banks we have "MUCH too big too fail" banks. Soon there may be just 3-4 banks left at this rate. What happened to competition? This is not a sustainable system never mind a healthy one.
We hear that the U.S. citizen is now saving and doing much better. What about the government saving and doing much better? We hear that this is the next bull market. Well, real bull markets occur with a strong currency not a weak one. We hear that a weak dollar is not a problem and is actually good for the stock market. Gold is not telling us this and is actually saying there are some serious problems out there. We hear a lot of things, all while unemployment is near 10 percent according to the governments books and another house goes into foreclosure every seven minutes. The one problem is that the people on Main Street are not seeing the same thing as the people on Wall Street. If a household or family cannot spend there way to health how can a country or economy do it? Isn't this more of the same policy which placed the U.S in this boat in the first place, isn't this really the problem? We shall know soon enough. For now it might be a wise decision to hold on to your jewelry.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks
By ITMS on October 30th, 2009 5:08pm Eastern Time
On March 9th 2009 the DXY(U.S. Dollar index) was trading at high at 89.10. The DXY is the U.S Dollar verses a basket of the six largest currencies. This time frame in March was the low for the stock market as the SPX was trading around 667.00. The dollar was strong as the fear in the market was at it's greatest level since the "Great Depression." Investors and traders alike were looking to hold U.S. Dollars more than any other currency or commodity. It is important to remember that the dollar is the worlds reserve currency. Most of the commodities in the world including oil are traded in U.S. Dollars and British Pound. With the exception of gold when fear hits the marketplace investors want U.S. Dollars and not the Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee, or even the Euro. They simply want U.S. Dollars. The only other currency that any investor or trader should want is plain gold and silver. Gold and silver have been the real currencies since the beginning of time and we suppose this will remain the case until the end of time. That being said, if you don't own gold it is proven that in times of panic investors want U.S. Dollars. Since the dollar began it's decline the market has had a rally for the ages. This is the best rally since 1930 after the 1929 stock crash. The only bad thing about the 50 percent rally in 1930 was that it declined to new all-time lows after the 50 percent bounce.
Then we must ask ourselves a simple question, why has the dollar declined the way it has since the March 2009 low? On October 21st 2009 the DXY hit a low of 75.00. This is a decline of nearly 16 percent from it's March 2009 peak when the DXY was at 89.00. The dollar was apparently driven lower to boost the stock market. The marketplace has been flooded once again with cheap money or in other words lots of printed money. This does benefit many multinational companies that export their goods. It also benefits many foreigners who can buy cheap U.S. goods and services. The problem is what does the U.S. really produce? The U.S. has become a service industry nation over the past 30 years. The weak dollar does not benefit the U.S. citizen that makes their living in the United States. The retired citizens that live in America are not benefiting at all from a weak dollar policy as they are having their so called savings vanish in thin air as they sleep. The weak dollar would also cause goods to increase at stores such as Walmart who import virtually everything they sell. Now the consumer must pay more for imported goods. What about the flood of so called baby boomers that are set to retire soon? How does a weak dollar benefit them? They will soon be in the same boat as the retiree. The only people that benefit from the weak dollar are the foreigner and other nations in the long run. So why is the Fed and the Treasury so bent on having a weak dollar policy?
There can only be one answer to the weak dollar policy and we do not believe it is to boost weak U.S. tourism or have more foreign investment. It must simply be to fight deflation as there does not seem to be any other logical reason. When oil reached $147/barrel in July 2008 on the back of the weak U.S. Dollar it was one of the catalyst that broke the market. The U.S. consumer could not absorb that kind of spike in oil and it probably cannot absorb $80/barrel oil at this time. Deflation is interesting subject, the Japanese have been dealing with deflation since 1989 and still have not found a solution or cure for the problem. The move to push for a weak dollar was an obvious attempt to get public confidence higher resulting in a consumer spending binge. Inflate the market at all costs seems to be the current plan. Stimulus from all angles has been and is being thrown at the consumer such as the "cash for clunkers program," $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, bailouts for the so called "too big to fail institutions," and bailouts for the car companies.
What ever happened to good old capitalism when bad business was bad business and companies were held accountable and actually failed? Why have the regional banks been allowed to fail and not bailed out? Instead of "too big to fail" banks we have "MUCH too big too fail" banks. Soon there may be just 3-4 banks left at this rate. What happened to competition? This is not a sustainable system never mind a healthy one.
We hear that the U.S. citizen is now saving and doing much better. What about the government saving and doing much better? We hear that this is the next bull market. Well, real bull markets occur with a strong currency not a weak one. We hear that a weak dollar is not a problem and is actually good for the stock market. Gold is not telling us this and is actually saying there are some serious problems out there. We hear a lot of things, all while unemployment is near 10 percent according to the governments books and another house goes into foreclosure every seven minutes. The one problem is that the people on Main Street are not seeing the same thing as the people on Wall Street. If a household or family cannot spend there way to health how can a country or economy do it? Isn't this more of the same policy which placed the U.S in this boat in the first place, isn't this really the problem? We shall know soon enough. For now it might be a wise decision to hold on to your jewelry.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks
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