Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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dr.blix
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i think you've just got the spread indicator for the MACD there jonboy, not the actual MACD itself (there'll be 2 more lines)...
anyway, ditch that MACD spread indicator and get yourself an RSI (relative strength indicator - just another momentum indicator) instead.
i'm not too shabby with RSI divergence...post some charts of where you see RSI oscillator divergence (bullish or bearish) and i'll help you with them.
btw, good man yerself for playing with charts at 1 in the morning...
anyway, ditch that MACD spread indicator and get yourself an RSI (relative strength indicator - just another momentum indicator) instead.
i'm not too shabby with RSI divergence...post some charts of where you see RSI oscillator divergence (bullish or bearish) and i'll help you with them.
btw, good man yerself for playing with charts at 1 in the morning...
dr.blix
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here's a good example of bullish RSI osc div jonboy.
note that the indicators lows (which i didn't actually highlight on this chart) and highs (marked in red) have ceased to follow price.
this indicates the selling is starting to tap out, it may not mean a reversal though, i could just be a pause before the selling continues again.
note that the indicators lows (which i didn't actually highlight on this chart) and highs (marked in red) have ceased to follow price.
this indicates the selling is starting to tap out, it may not mean a reversal though, i could just be a pause before the selling continues again.
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yeah my advanced charts show both the lines and histogram for MACD.
(RSI relative strength Index..... not relative strength indicator...i believe.....)
RSI, yes i usually have this open too. Im testing out 5 period and 14 period.
Ill have a back test to see if i can see any RSI divergence.. .
Your RSI div example. Its not as clear to me.... the RSI looks like its following price pretty much... you mean you are comparing the slope of the high to high price trend line to the high to high rsi trend line? if you are then id say yes the slope of the rsi low to low is not as steep as the price low to low trend line...
I have not read a thing about RSI div or what it looks like yet.... i will though in time.
1am ? ...its 3am now...good stuff.... cheers.
(hmm? maybe i should trade asian session being a night owl and all)
no, i think i should learn to trade first....
same time frame but with macd lines too and rsi.
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blix, ive just read up on RSI div etc.
check this chart out, ftse daily (up to date)
this is a bearish divergence isnt it? (with price and RSI)
i have drawn the trend lines on price chart and rsi...
higher highs on price.
Yet almost level RSI..actually its slightly lower....75 to 73
level rsi is a bearish sign, as is the lower highs on RSI.
Please confirm if i am talking sense.
This signal is even more pronounced with the 5 period RSI.
I have used 14 RSI in the chart attached.
check this chart out, ftse daily (up to date)
this is a bearish divergence isnt it? (with price and RSI)
i have drawn the trend lines on price chart and rsi...
higher highs on price.
Yet almost level RSI..actually its slightly lower....75 to 73
level rsi is a bearish sign, as is the lower highs on RSI.
Please confirm if i am talking sense.
This signal is even more pronounced with the 5 period RSI.
I have used 14 RSI in the chart attached.
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You've shut me up:!:
I'm a trader with no knowledge of hedging, CFD's or anything like that, so I am not going to try to give any opinion on it.
If that is your method, good luck to you with it and I'm pleased that your long 4718 (was it?) turned out for the better. I thought that was a long shot. I know that the guys on that other thread do those sort of things all the time and they seem happy with it, It's a case of character difference. If you were not happy with yesterday's result, then keep on honing it until you are.
Good luck, mate.
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dr.blix
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yeah that's bearish osc div jonboy. i use the 14 period, i have no experience of using a shorter period RSI, other than SD's 5RSI, 5stochastic, 10TF system.
so whilst learning, i'd stick to the 14 RSI to study divergence.
i don't use RSI as an 'overbought/oversold' indicator, as i think momentum indicators used in this way are not that helpful, especially when you're starting out using them. i'd just stick to using it for divergence. on a daily TF it can be pretty handy for trying to asses where a market might be headed (or at least if a current trend is starting to run out of steam).
as i'd said, i'd ditch the MACD right now. leave the RSI on and just study divergence for a month or two. after a while osc div tends to jump out at you straight away. when you feel this has happened, then move on to add another indicator to study/asses if you feel you need to.
remember though, MACD, stochastic, RSI are all momentum indicators, unless you have a good reason (ie it's part of your system), there's no real point in having more than one, as ideally you want at least 3 NON CORRELATING indicators ie, momentum, volume, sentiment. the idea being that once you have 'permissions' from each non correlated indicator, you've raised the probability of a positive outcome.
remember though, some people use no indicators at all, as, with a huge amount of experience, some traders see all the information they need in price action alone.
these people are joking referred to as being on the 'dark side', maybe in time we'll all end up there, but personally i think you have to go through the process of learning a lot of this stuff to potentially realise that you may not need it!
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dr.blix
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I like the Dark Side!
The Lapster and I are now learning PN's dark side strategies - come and join in if you like DB?
Good to see you around again mate!
hey geo, i will def be joining you on the 'dark side' mate!
can't let you an L.L. (The Word) Cool Lap McLapster have all the fun!
i need to go right through all the free info on his site first, i only have a vague outline of bias right now.
once i've done that i'll be back on the thread to kik some eurodollar @ss :shuriken:
btw, pointless now i know, but i swear to god geo, i was going to PM you on thursday saying the E$ looked liked it was going to collapse.
anyhoo...have a good wknd mate (everyone else too).
oh and jonboy, your homework this wknd is to read ALL the T2W articles, otherwise you'll be on detention on monday.
good stuff blix, thankyou.
I like MACD, alexander elder suggests we use it in his books.
Not sure yet, but i think after the RSI5 buy signal happens,
we cant look at rsi after the trade, as its too volatile and not helpful at all and just too stressful. But MACD histogram tells us smoothly whether bulls or bears are getting stronger.
Ok i am getting to grips with RSI now.
Yes i do think alot of TA is BS and might hinder rather than help the more we learn.
the ftse chart attached, how are my div. observation skills coming along, sir?
the current bearish div, looks like FTSE is either gonna start going sideways, or go down. And we are in textbook overbought territory pointing down...sign of possible bear move/pullback.
If the recession is really almost over, then it will go sideways or up.
If recession is still alive and strong, then sideways or down for ftse.
Goldman sachs said usa bull market has begun and SP500 will be 1050-1100 before the year end.
"homework this wknd is to read ALL the T2W articles, otherwise you'll be on detention on monday."...chap im struggling to keep up with this thread alone! let alone read an article! lol one thing at a time eh.... (i need to catch up on fri posts onwards here too)
good man.
ps...we are also seeing a rising wedge now on daily ftse....this is a bearish sign i believe. see my yesterdays close up chart of ftse...post #10988
I like MACD, alexander elder suggests we use it in his books.
Not sure yet, but i think after the RSI5 buy signal happens,
we cant look at rsi after the trade, as its too volatile and not helpful at all and just too stressful. But MACD histogram tells us smoothly whether bulls or bears are getting stronger.
Ok i am getting to grips with RSI now.
Yes i do think alot of TA is BS and might hinder rather than help the more we learn.
the ftse chart attached, how are my div. observation skills coming along, sir?
the current bearish div, looks like FTSE is either gonna start going sideways, or go down. And we are in textbook overbought territory pointing down...sign of possible bear move/pullback.
If the recession is really almost over, then it will go sideways or up.
If recession is still alive and strong, then sideways or down for ftse.
Goldman sachs said usa bull market has begun and SP500 will be 1050-1100 before the year end.
"homework this wknd is to read ALL the T2W articles, otherwise you'll be on detention on monday."...chap im struggling to keep up with this thread alone! let alone read an article! lol one thing at a time eh.... (i need to catch up on fri posts onwards here too)
good man.
ps...we are also seeing a rising wedge now on daily ftse....this is a bearish sign i believe. see my yesterdays close up chart of ftse...post #10988
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dr.blix
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good work picking out the osc div jonboy.
TA isn't bull****, it's just that there are so many ways of doing the same thing i think.
unless you have a good reason to have it there jonboy, i'd lose the 5 RSI.
depending on your level of experience (which obviously i don't know), it's arguable whether the articles are of more importance to you than this thread right now.
regarding your channels, i like to make multiple inner/outer channels.
the channel on your chart is currently redundant, but if you copy the lower floor over to take in the march lows you've clipped, you may find that that new floor is acting as a current channel ceiling that you could potentially be using to help guide potential shorts.
TA isn't bull****, it's just that there are so many ways of doing the same thing i think.
unless you have a good reason to have it there jonboy, i'd lose the 5 RSI.
depending on your level of experience (which obviously i don't know), it's arguable whether the articles are of more importance to you than this thread right now.
regarding your channels, i like to make multiple inner/outer channels.
the channel on your chart is currently redundant, but if you copy the lower floor over to take in the march lows you've clipped, you may find that that new floor is acting as a current channel ceiling that you could potentially be using to help guide potential shorts.
wallstreet1928
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Week Ahead: Big Stock Rally May See Big Pullback
Published: Friday, 7 Aug 2009 | 8:55 PM ET Text Size
By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor
Wall Street's bull could take a breather in the week ahead, but the trend for stocks remains higher, for now.
Stocks in the past week gained another 2 percent as improved reports on employment and manufacturing activity confirmed expectations the economy is showing signs of recovery.
AP
Wall Street Trader
Treasurys came under selling pressure, driving yields higher, and the dollar finished the week firmer.
In the week ahead, investor focus will be on the Treasury market and dollar as much as the Fed's two-day meeting midweek and a heavy calendar of economic reports.
Retail sales are released Thursday, and there are just a few major earnings reports, including Wal-Mart and several other chain stores.
"I suspect the market is going to retrace a little bit next week. I would be surprised if it didn't," said Tim Smalls of Execution LLC. "People keep saying there's a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting to come into the stock market. I'm not so sure. I think you need to have some kind of pull back, and then more people come into the market."
Another record round of Treasury auctions is scheduled for the coming week and could prove a disadvantage for stocks if rates continue to rise.
The yield on the 10-year reached 3.852 percent Friday on better economic news and concerns about the looming Treasury issuance, which includes $75 billion in notes and bonds and billions more in short-term bills.
Rising Rates
John Spinello, Treasury strategist at Jefferies, said the supply will likely pressure the bond market enough to push rates on the 10-year to 4 percent, a widely watched level it last touched in June.
Slideshow: States With the Most Millionaires
The Treasury plans to auction $37 billion three-years Tuesday; $23 billion in 10-years Wednesday, and $15 billion in 30-years Thursday.
"It's the supply pressure, the sentiment change about the economy, and the concern about foreigners not participating in the auctions," said Spinello.
Spinello, however, doesn't think the rise in rates will necessarily stall the equities markets as it did in June.
"Rates can go up and stocks can go up at the same time," he said.
Pimco senior strategist Tony Crescenzi said it's likely the economic news will continue to improve, a bearish trend for the Treasury market.
Friday's July employment report, which showed a smaller-than-expected decline in non-farm payrolls, reinforces the trend.
"There has been no interruption in the improving tone of the data and so long as that is the case, trends in markets will be held in tact.
More From CNBC.com
Get After-the-Bell Dow 30 Quotes
Credit Spreads and Libor Data
Futures and Pre-Market Data
Currency Data
The more the economic and financial conditions improve and yields rise, the more the risk asset classes, stocks and corporate bonds, will pay attention to the rise in interest rates," he said.
Even so, rising rates could be their own undoing.
"When you think of how the other asset classes might behave, that could truncate any rise in interest rates," he said.
The stock market will certainly be sensitive to any rise in interest rates, said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management.
RELATED LINKS
Hedge Funds on the Rebound
Is Rally in Wal-mart's Hands?
Money Managers Gather in Maine
"These are exactly the things that cause the market to consolidate. I would also say 4 percent this time is not as damaging as 4 percent was last time because we're no longer losing 500,000 jobs a month," he said.
Paulsen said he is watching weekly jobless claims data Thursday to see if it reinforces the trend of slowing job losses seen in July's employment report.
"Could the market pull back some? Could it consolidate some? Sure. It surely will at some point here. But I'll be darned if it's now or if does it at 1100," said Paulsen.
Published: Friday, 7 Aug 2009 | 8:55 PM ET Text Size
By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor
Wall Street's bull could take a breather in the week ahead, but the trend for stocks remains higher, for now.
Stocks in the past week gained another 2 percent as improved reports on employment and manufacturing activity confirmed expectations the economy is showing signs of recovery.
AP
Wall Street Trader
Treasurys came under selling pressure, driving yields higher, and the dollar finished the week firmer.
In the week ahead, investor focus will be on the Treasury market and dollar as much as the Fed's two-day meeting midweek and a heavy calendar of economic reports.
Retail sales are released Thursday, and there are just a few major earnings reports, including Wal-Mart and several other chain stores.
"I suspect the market is going to retrace a little bit next week. I would be surprised if it didn't," said Tim Smalls of Execution LLC. "People keep saying there's a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting to come into the stock market. I'm not so sure. I think you need to have some kind of pull back, and then more people come into the market."
Another record round of Treasury auctions is scheduled for the coming week and could prove a disadvantage for stocks if rates continue to rise.
The yield on the 10-year reached 3.852 percent Friday on better economic news and concerns about the looming Treasury issuance, which includes $75 billion in notes and bonds and billions more in short-term bills.
Rising Rates
John Spinello, Treasury strategist at Jefferies, said the supply will likely pressure the bond market enough to push rates on the 10-year to 4 percent, a widely watched level it last touched in June.
Slideshow: States With the Most Millionaires
The Treasury plans to auction $37 billion three-years Tuesday; $23 billion in 10-years Wednesday, and $15 billion in 30-years Thursday.
"It's the supply pressure, the sentiment change about the economy, and the concern about foreigners not participating in the auctions," said Spinello.
Spinello, however, doesn't think the rise in rates will necessarily stall the equities markets as it did in June.
"Rates can go up and stocks can go up at the same time," he said.
Pimco senior strategist Tony Crescenzi said it's likely the economic news will continue to improve, a bearish trend for the Treasury market.
Friday's July employment report, which showed a smaller-than-expected decline in non-farm payrolls, reinforces the trend.
"There has been no interruption in the improving tone of the data and so long as that is the case, trends in markets will be held in tact.
More From CNBC.com
Get After-the-Bell Dow 30 Quotes
Credit Spreads and Libor Data
Futures and Pre-Market Data
Currency Data
The more the economic and financial conditions improve and yields rise, the more the risk asset classes, stocks and corporate bonds, will pay attention to the rise in interest rates," he said.
Even so, rising rates could be their own undoing.
"When you think of how the other asset classes might behave, that could truncate any rise in interest rates," he said.
The stock market will certainly be sensitive to any rise in interest rates, said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist with Wells Capital Management.
RELATED LINKS
Hedge Funds on the Rebound
Is Rally in Wal-mart's Hands?
Money Managers Gather in Maine
"These are exactly the things that cause the market to consolidate. I would also say 4 percent this time is not as damaging as 4 percent was last time because we're no longer losing 500,000 jobs a month," he said.
Paulsen said he is watching weekly jobless claims data Thursday to see if it reinforces the trend of slowing job losses seen in July's employment report.
"Could the market pull back some? Could it consolidate some? Sure. It surely will at some point here. But I'll be darned if it's now or if does it at 1100," said Paulsen.
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wallstreet1928
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This a is a video of my spiritual master chaps .........
A living Sufi Dervish based in Lefke, Cyprus
The song is very relaxing and helps me do my analysis whilst i listen to it in the background.
can somebody help me by finding who the artist is please?
A living Sufi Dervish based in Lefke, Cyprus
The song is very relaxing and helps me do my analysis whilst i listen to it in the background.
can somebody help me by finding who the artist is please?
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Geofract
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Since E$ is now confirmed short H3 trend - no suprise there!! - on the break of point 4 on Friday, a potential fib pullback setup for me, might look like the attached. Of course it will never happen like this, but that's not the point. So as long as the H3 trend remains down, I'll be looking to sell pullbacks at 50% + fib levels - simples
@ DB - the bias thing is very easy I assure you. You can replace the word bias with trend obviously, so all we are doing by counting highs and lows as they develop, is making sure we're the right side of the trend. As soon as a bias change occurs, we know to start reversing our trade direction. Very straightforward, and ideal if you want to trade with the trend.
I like the idea, because it saves the recognition of patterns such as head & shoulders, bear flags, etc, etc - yes, of course I do still notice them, but sometimes one pattern morphs to another. With the bias idea, I should always be the right side of the market. Of course bias' can change quickly at times, but then no plan is full proof as we know.
- on the break of point 4 on Friday, a potential fib pullback setup for me, might look like the attached. Of course it will never happen like this, but that's not the point. So as long as the H3 trend remains down, I'll be looking to sell pullbacks at 50% + fib levels - simples @ DB - the bias thing is very easy I assure you. You can replace the word bias with trend obviously, so all we are doing by counting highs and lows as they develop, is making sure we're the right side of the trend. As soon as a bias change occurs, we know to start reversing our trade direction. Very straightforward, and ideal if you want to trade with the trend.
I like the idea, because it saves the recognition of patterns such as head & shoulders, bear flags, etc, etc - yes, of course I do still notice them, but sometimes one pattern morphs to another. With the bias idea, I should always be the right side of the market. Of course bias' can change quickly at times, but then no plan is full proof as we know.
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not sure which channels you are refering to.... multiple inner/outer channels? if you can show me an example chap.
yeah im still learning IG advanced charts. Bit tricky to grasp the functionality.
I tend to draw on on 10min chart, and then change setting to daily, and so old drawing and MA is still there (which is what you are seeing and yes is redundant) . I think i need to have a template for daily and another template for intraday. I still havnt decided on which moving averages to use, so im gonna make templates for diff sets, rather than keep adjusting the MA on each chart....
See the attached chart, for the adjusted channel. I think this is what you meant for me to do...
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is this the one chap?
Waiting For My Real Life To Begin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
just typed the first line of the lyrics into yahoo, lyrics site tell you artist of course.
then you put the artist and song into yahoo again.... hope that was the right one chap.
and if you just type that song title and or artist into youtube, you may get other versions or live versions.
you could extract the audio from youtube vids too if you wanted to listen to the mp3 audio only on your ipod etc.
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Geofract
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Good good, glad to hear that DB.
As LL suggested, we can get a skype thing going between the 3 of us (plus anyone else who wants to join in of course), which will make it easier on the comms.
I'm gonna be a bit busy with work again next week, but I am determined to make these strats work, so I'll be right back into it asap, and swatting up on all the setup rules, etc, etc.
Checkout out the price action section of Phils site when you have a chance. The video that shows him analysing the dow, and the fx street vid are very good I think.
Have a good weekend everyone
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