Updata's TA courses
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Rognvald
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GNW
As I write this I am looking at a rt 1min p+f (close) 1box x1box revesal of the Mar 04 FTSE Index Future. I am comparing it against a tick p+f .25X 3
Both are showing support at c 4435 but the latter is much clearer and much more detailed.
I really dont see why you have a problem with the interpretation. as the UD TA is v flexibleand capable on p+f
Do what I do and experiment (paper) until you see what you want to see
As I write this I am looking at a rt 1min p+f (close) 1box x1box revesal of the Mar 04 FTSE Index Future. I am comparing it against a tick p+f .25X 3
Both are showing support at c 4435 but the latter is much clearer and much more detailed.
I really dont see why you have a problem with the interpretation. as the UD TA is v flexibleand capable on p+f
Do what I do and experiment (paper) until you see what you want to see
GruntnoWay
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Thanks RGD and OAT
I will try those
I will try those
Rognvald
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GNW
Perry J Kaufman in "Trading systems and Methods" states of pnf
"the expected pattern of test results (with pnf) is symmetric.
"The symmetry is the result of very similar performance for equal reversal values.
"The diffference in profitability occurs because the selection with the smallest box size will satisfy the penetration criteria soonest, giving faster signals and more trades
This I think says it all (well a lot of it anyway)
Perry J Kaufman in "Trading systems and Methods" states of pnf
"the expected pattern of test results (with pnf) is symmetric.
"The symmetry is the result of very similar performance for equal reversal values.
"The diffference in profitability occurs because the selection with the smallest box size will satisfy the penetration criteria soonest, giving faster signals and more trades
This I think says it all (well a lot of it anyway)
Just a few comments on the P&F discussion and Jeremy Du Plessey.
VolatileN makes the point that apparently Updata and JdP are not making profits from trading based on examination of the Updata accounts.
I would think a great deal more investegation into the Contractural/Director arrangements between JdP and Updata would be necessary in order to be certain of this, and that would prove difficult.....
For example, when JdP took the Aussie silver coin and dumped the Indexia users into nether regions [me included], if he had any sense he would have already been perhaps Schedule D self employed selling his services as a consultant to Updata and trading under his own banner, whilst perhaps also drawing a consultants salary for the indexia "Goodwill" and technical services inputs.
His schedule D accounts need not show up at Companies House under Updata.
Am I bitter?? well, I still have the Indexia dongle, and have in the past made money using Indexia and P&F charting ....um...nah!!
VolatileN makes the point that apparently Updata and JdP are not making profits from trading based on examination of the Updata accounts.
I would think a great deal more investegation into the Contractural/Director arrangements between JdP and Updata would be necessary in order to be certain of this, and that would prove difficult.....
For example, when JdP took the Aussie silver coin and dumped the Indexia users into nether regions [me included], if he had any sense he would have already been perhaps Schedule D self employed selling his services as a consultant to Updata and trading under his own banner, whilst perhaps also drawing a consultants salary for the indexia "Goodwill" and technical services inputs.
His schedule D accounts need not show up at Companies House under Updata.
Am I bitter?? well, I still have the Indexia dongle, and have in the past made money using Indexia and P&F charting ....um...nah!!
Rognvald said:GNW
Perry J Kaufman in "Trading systems and Methods" states of pnf
"the expected pattern of test results (with pnf) is symmetric.
"The symmetry is the result of very similar performance for equal reversal values.
"The diffference in profitability occurs because the selection with the smallest box size will satisfy the penetration criteria soonest, giving faster signals and more trades
This I think says it all (well a lot of it anyway)
With all due respect to PJK - if he is talking about pnl results from reversals alone (as opposed to breakdowns or anything else) then he doesn't understand what pnf is in the first place. The optimisation of the chart and the way inwhich it is traded are two very different things. This is a common mistake made by the pnf naive.
Rognvald
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TBS
There is a danger of my quotes from Kaufman being taken out of context.
I made the quotes as GNW expressed an interest in 1 box reversals as against x box reversals. The quotes were not made to imply that I or anyone else believes that small one box reversals were the most profitable method of trading pnf.
PJK made the statements in the context of a section on system testing on pnf and in the light of specific results on an optimisation exercise on box sizing and not in a section on the best method of trading pnf.
The one box reversal can relate to a large or small box sizes. It is difficult to discuss the sense of what was said without having the full extract from the book in front of us.
It is a matter of fact though that the use of a small one box reversal sytem gives the most sensitive signals with all that is implied in terms of noise, whipsaws, stoploss etc.
Insofar as the thread has related to pnf the discussion has mostly been about the measure of box reversal and not about pattern recognition for trading.
PJF devotes a whole chapter to pnf trading (separate to the one from which I quoted) and makes it clear that
"the box size used in a point and figure chart determines the sensitivity or frequency of signals, and allows the identification of trends and trading ranges of various duration
I don't think anyone would disagree with that
There is a danger of my quotes from Kaufman being taken out of context.
I made the quotes as GNW expressed an interest in 1 box reversals as against x box reversals. The quotes were not made to imply that I or anyone else believes that small one box reversals were the most profitable method of trading pnf.
PJK made the statements in the context of a section on system testing on pnf and in the light of specific results on an optimisation exercise on box sizing and not in a section on the best method of trading pnf.
The one box reversal can relate to a large or small box sizes. It is difficult to discuss the sense of what was said without having the full extract from the book in front of us.
It is a matter of fact though that the use of a small one box reversal sytem gives the most sensitive signals with all that is implied in terms of noise, whipsaws, stoploss etc.
Insofar as the thread has related to pnf the discussion has mostly been about the measure of box reversal and not about pattern recognition for trading.
PJF devotes a whole chapter to pnf trading (separate to the one from which I quoted) and makes it clear that
"the box size used in a point and figure chart determines the sensitivity or frequency of signals, and allows the identification of trends and trading ranges of various duration
I don't think anyone would disagree with that
My money is on Mr Volatile,
who I think made some important points in a very sensible manner - you have my vote anyway!
Profits for Updata - well, there's pros and cons.... if you understand the books etc and put the work in you can figure out what most people will want in a program without being any good at trading yourself. I have no idea if J Du P is making a packet, or for that matter anyone else in the market technicians society, that doesn't stop him designing an excellent tool for trading.
I would argue that this also doesn't qualify anyone to teach others how to trade - attending a seminar on 'how to use Updata' or 'advanced use of Updata' therefore is fine, a seminar called 'how to trade with Updata' (or any other program for that matter, my own included) should e able to point to a real trading record showing that the methods being taught actually work...for that I'd want to see a record of several years actual trades made, not a spreadsheet listing optimised backtests that if only I'd thought of them in 2000 would have made me rich.
I think VN was spot on frankly, I don't think Updata are any worse than anyone else, and I suspect they are better than many, many out there, but personally I'd invest my money in personal coaching from someone who was willing to provide some proof they were good at it. I can readily agree that if you are not totally fluent with Updata TA then it might well be worthwhile attending to improve your own ability to make use of it.
I think VN offered an anti, but well reasoned argument - I also think he deserved a well reasoned argument against,
Dave
who I think made some important points in a very sensible manner - you have my vote anyway!
Profits for Updata - well, there's pros and cons.... if you understand the books etc and put the work in you can figure out what most people will want in a program without being any good at trading yourself. I have no idea if J Du P is making a packet, or for that matter anyone else in the market technicians society, that doesn't stop him designing an excellent tool for trading.
I would argue that this also doesn't qualify anyone to teach others how to trade - attending a seminar on 'how to use Updata' or 'advanced use of Updata' therefore is fine, a seminar called 'how to trade with Updata' (or any other program for that matter, my own included) should e able to point to a real trading record showing that the methods being taught actually work...for that I'd want to see a record of several years actual trades made, not a spreadsheet listing optimised backtests that if only I'd thought of them in 2000 would have made me rich.
I think VN was spot on frankly, I don't think Updata are any worse than anyone else, and I suspect they are better than many, many out there, but personally I'd invest my money in personal coaching from someone who was willing to provide some proof they were good at it. I can readily agree that if you are not totally fluent with Updata TA then it might well be worthwhile attending to improve your own ability to make use of it.
I think VN offered an anti, but well reasoned argument - I also think he deserved a well reasoned argument against,
Dave
Well I am still asking myself why I bothered to attend the January Updata course having had a few years of second rate service from Updata. But I went with an open mind prepared to let them show me how with the aid of Updata's TA I could make my fortune.
The day starts with J du P explaining how to draw PnF by hand then onto using TA to draw the charts all very basic stuff when asked about back testing the techniques he was describing I got a blank look and was told to ask David Linton as he was the back testing Guru.
The afternoon was spent with Mr Linton running through the results of many indicators showing spreadsheets of the back tests he had done but centering on there stop loss indicator that always gets you out at the turning point of the market.....well always in hindsight......
My enthusiasm waned through the day as we all know it’s very easy to run back test on data and make money projecting that into the future in real trading is somewhat harder.
David only showed the results of long trades in his back test over the last five years I asked why he did not use shorting as a trading method especially as we have been in a bear market for most of the last 5 years but was told that shorting was to dangerous unless you could sit at your screen all day????
Towards the end of the day I suggested that even if he had only used something simple like a 50 day MA and back tested looking for short trades when the stock was below the 50ma and long trades when the stock was above the 50 ma then he could have improved the results far more than tweaking the RSI from 21day to 25day at this time DL lost his rag a bit and blurted out that he only had 2 hours to run these back test off so didn’t have time to fool around with 50 day MA's...David it showed 2hrs preparation and you charge £400 per candidate.
So I have to agree with Mr Volatile a complete waste of money. I also doubt that any of the speakers make money using the techniques shown on the day, the course shows no real trades just loads of back testing.
I a word …….. CRAP
MX
The day starts with J du P explaining how to draw PnF by hand then onto using TA to draw the charts all very basic stuff when asked about back testing the techniques he was describing I got a blank look and was told to ask David Linton as he was the back testing Guru.
The afternoon was spent with Mr Linton running through the results of many indicators showing spreadsheets of the back tests he had done but centering on there stop loss indicator that always gets you out at the turning point of the market.....well always in hindsight......
My enthusiasm waned through the day as we all know it’s very easy to run back test on data and make money projecting that into the future in real trading is somewhat harder.
David only showed the results of long trades in his back test over the last five years I asked why he did not use shorting as a trading method especially as we have been in a bear market for most of the last 5 years but was told that shorting was to dangerous unless you could sit at your screen all day????
Towards the end of the day I suggested that even if he had only used something simple like a 50 day MA and back tested looking for short trades when the stock was below the 50ma and long trades when the stock was above the 50 ma then he could have improved the results far more than tweaking the RSI from 21day to 25day at this time DL lost his rag a bit and blurted out that he only had 2 hours to run these back test off so didn’t have time to fool around with 50 day MA's...David it showed 2hrs preparation and you charge £400 per candidate.
So I have to agree with Mr Volatile a complete waste of money. I also doubt that any of the speakers make money using the techniques shown on the day, the course shows no real trades just loads of back testing.
I a word …….. CRAP
MX
Rognvald said:
Hi R - apologies I get a bit twitchy about peoples comments on PnF as most - especially the so called 'experts' have never even tried to optimise/trade or anything else from the technique - and as such wouldn't understand either the strengths or weaknesses of it.
I see one of my other favourite hobby horses has been mentioned - DL...... "Nurse, nurse, blood pressure pills please........"
A couple of years ago David Linton published a six page document highlighting the "remarkable" head and shoulders pattern in the S&P and warning of the move down to the 400 or 500 level.
I'm not sure of the exact levels that he was forecasting but what struck me was the "immaturity" of his approach.
The only guys I know who are 100% sure of their TA forecasts are those who've only been at it a short time.
BTW.........some great comments from Mr Volatile
I'm not sure of the exact levels that he was forecasting but what struck me was the "immaturity" of his approach.
The only guys I know who are 100% sure of their TA forecasts are those who've only been at it a short time.
BTW.........some great comments from Mr Volatile
GruntnoWay
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GruntnoWay said:
Sorry its taken a few weeks for them to get back to me. Here is the report unedited except for names.
Hi there Chris. Sincere apologies for the delay in giving you comments on the Updata course we attended over two weeks ago. As you know, XXXXX (name removed) and I were very apprehensive about going following the comments you had received from your bulletin board. We thought about cancelling but then decided that we would never know unless we attended. Money spent and all that. I use point and figure charts but as you know XXXXX has never gotten round to them so we were of mixed ability. The course was at Kings College near Waterloo station so easy to get to. There were about 30 other traders there. Coffee and registration and we launched into it with a 1 1/4 hours on point and figure theory given by Jeremy DuPlessis. The presentation was excellent and told me things I had not known before. He knows his stuff and answered questions from the floor throughout the talk. This is one of the things we both liked about the day. The group was small enough that we could react with the presenters. The theory went into understanding all the different construction methods {I had no idea that there were different ways to create point and figure charts}. I was particularly taken with the charts that take point by point changes and have used them in the last two weeks. I have never seen these before. The theory included understanding how patterns are created. We were told not to learn patterns but understand what creates them. He covered how to read and interpret the charts also a number of different ways of extracting price targets. Coffee break followed. Unfortunately during the break due to an admin mix up we had to change rooms which was really annoying. The second room was not as good and unsettled us. 15 minutes later we were sat down again for another 1 1/4 hour session on the practical use of PoFi charts. This was very good and reinforced the theory we had a hour earlier. Jeremy described it as how to attack a PF chart. XXXXX's reaction was really quite funny to watch. As the session progressed so he became more excited. The theory and practice together was perfect. Lunch was mediocre but in pleasant enough surroundings but it was nothing to write home about. I would have preferred a sandwich. After lunch we had a two hour session given by David Linton on optimisation and how indicators like stochastic fast and slow, macd and many others can be optimised. One was Chaikan Volatility I had not used before. It was an eye opener. I have spent many hours doing some of my own in the last two weeks and have made two good trades from it already. I need to spend more time on this. David stressed that the type of signal that gets you into a trade is never the same as the one that gets you out which really turned my traditional thinking on its head. XXXX got slightly lost during the session but has since been doing some optimisations of his own and says he has got to grips with it now. We have also looked at optimising PF charts. David’s notes, as were Jeremy’s, were very very good. I have read at least 3 books on PF and find the notes I received give me more than the books do. David produced tables of optimisations and tips on how to get the best out of the optimisation. A long overdue coffee break again and then into the final session which was a practical session on how to scan for opportunities. This was given by Jeremy again and was very interactive. He made us work and make suggestions with his guidance. It was excellent as he explained what we had to look for and once we knew we could scan for them. Do you know, by the way, that you can scan for buy or sell signals based on saved optimisations? I didn’t. It means that it will scan each stock using different scanning conditions. It finished off with drinks which we couldn’t stay for. What did we think of the day? Was it worth it? For both of us it is a resounding yes. We learnt more in that day than we had learnt over many years of trading and reading books. No promises were made and none were expected. We were not offered a foolproof way to make money but we were shown the logic and rationale. Would XXXXX and I attend another? Yes, without any doubt. Maybe all three of us should attend next time. I don’t know why there was so much negative comment on your bulletin board. I’m sure that the course doesn’t suit everyone, but then some books don’t either. The group who attended seemed fairly mixed ability. I spoke to options traders, spread traders and some even traded American stocks. No-one I spoke to had a bad word to say about the course so our view seems to have been the general view. I hope this has been informative. I don’t mind if you publish my thoughts as long as you do so in its entirety. Regards, good trading and all the best YYYYY.
GruntnoWay said:Tell me what book covers 1 point charts. I have read dorsey and zieg.
Carroll d Aby Jr - Point and figure charting the complete guide....read this book as well after zeig's
If one reads these books then you do not need a course that costs 400 odd pounds..!!!
Jeremy is good....can't say any good word about my experiences with Updata TA...I bought it from day one and for whole year and endless patches and upgrades...After a year I was fed up and ditched the product....went back to indexia....which does the job without any bugs...
Many thanks Gruntnoway, a very interesting read and I'm pleased your friends got so much out of it.
Zambuck said:
My experience has been quite different this last year.
Although there have been upgrades every six weeks or so, they have improved the functionality of the product and this latest allows it to work alongside other databases.
I use Updata every day..although there are what I consider better methods for some of the components, there are few quicker and I can form an opinion on a share very quickly using it.
Zambuck said:
My experience has been quite different this last year.
Although there have been upgrades every six weeks or so, they have improved the functionality of the product and this latest allows it to work alongside other databases.
I use Updata every day..although there are what I consider better methods for some of the components, there are few quicker and I can form an opinion on a share very quickly using it.
