Trend trading failure of trend breakouts

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.

Trends are only visible in hindsight , as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop , when breakouts become consolidation zones.There are more trend failures than trends materializing , most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?
 

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Dowser

Experienced member
1,389 310
Interesting, frying pan, map reading and psychology with flared trousers and trend. Blind dogs leading deaf cats 80% of the time. Also fish on Friday but not for traders who stand on one leg. I think?
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,604 1,041
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.

Trends are only visible in hindsight , as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop , when breakouts become consolidation zones.There are more trend failures than trends materializing , most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?

OK, I should know better but here goes...

What's missing from the statement that trends are only visible in hindsight is truth and relevance. Trends are only visible once they become trends but that's not the same as only visible in hindsight. Once established, a trend can be readily confirmed, and the most likely thing a confirmed trend will do next is continue. And that assessment is real-time.
 

Jason101

Experienced member
1,366 214
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.
Agree.

Trends are only visible in hindsight
Agree, as is a choppy market too.

as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop,when breakouts become consolidation zones.
Disagree, I have no idea why you think this image shows that at all.

There are more trend failures than trends materializing,
I don't see the relevance of this statement at all. You may as well tell a punter "more horses in this race will lose than win."

most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.
If so then most traders are doing it wrong, they should be breaking even on a failed trend trade or at the very most losing a very very small amount. And they should not be "trying to find the illusive trend" they should have already found it.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?
Nearly everything.
 
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foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.
Agree.

Trends are only visible in hindsight
Agree, as is a choppy market too.

as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop,when breakouts become consolidation zones.
Disagree, I have no idea why you think this image shows that at all.

The image shows a consolidation zone.simple evidence ,by the time you see a trend ,it is ranging and chopping


There are more trend failures than trends materializing,
I don't see the relevance of this statement at all. You may as well tell a punter "more horses in this race will lose than win."The image just proves the point , there is only one trend ,but more failures


most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.
If so then most traders are doing it wrong, they should be breaking even on a failed trend trade or at the very most losing a very very small amount. And they should not be "trying to find the illusive trend" they should have already found it.It is not possible to lose a very little without getting into an emotional disorder



What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?
Nearly everything.
what is everything


I am looking for the trend trading marketeer to buy a new book on new holy grail of trend trading ,so I can learn everything they claim is wrong.
 

Jason101

Experienced member
1,366 214
what is everything


I am looking for the trend trading marketeer to buy a new book on new holy grail of trend trading ,so I can learn everything they claim is wrong.
You don't need to buy anything.
You could start by reading for free "The Complete Turtle Rules by Curtis Faith"
This was published for free as an attempt to stop vendors profiting from selling books and systems.
After reading it, take the principles not the system and then do your own thing.
I have never bought a trend following book ever.
I worked it out for myself. After trend following for many years, I read the turtle rules and thought, blimey, that's not far off what I do, I hadn't realised it was a real thing.
But like I say I would use the principles, not the system.
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
You don't need to buy anything.
You could start by reading for free "The Complete Turtle Rules by Curtis Faith"
This was published for free as an attempt to stop vendors profiting from selling books and systems.
After reading it, take the principles not the system and then do your own thing.
I have never bought a trend following book ever.
I worked it out for myself. After trend following for many years, I read the turtle rules and thought, blimey, that's not far off what I do, I hadn't realised it was a real thing.
But like I say I would use the principles, not the system.
Have you tried buying at major supports , before the breakouts of trend ,then trailing with a wide stop?
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,604 1,041
By the time you see an opportunity ,it is reversing.Market is too efficient to offer a free lunch.

There's been many a free lunch from the US, UK and German stock markets recently. Just look at their index charts over 12mths. I haven't looked at other countries', haven't needed to. Likewise, haven't needed to do much in forex. Trading is easy, its traders who make it hard for themselves.
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
There's been many a free lunch from the US, UK and German stock markets recently. Just look at their index charts over 12mths. I haven't looked at other countries', haven't needed to. Likewise, haven't needed to do much in forex. Trading is easy, its traders who make it hard for themselves.
Forex does give these free lunches according to this statement.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,604 1,041
Yes, forex does give free lunches like all markets do when they get established in longer-term trends. Once these are established, the most probable next thing price does is continue. traders make trading hard, not the markets.
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Yes, forex does give free lunches like all markets do when they get established in longer-term trends. Once these are established, the most probable next thing price does is continue. traders make trading hard, not the markets.
Which forex currencies appreciated by 600 % ,like dax from 2,000 to 13,000?
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,604 1,041
Which forex currencies appreciated by 600 % ,like dax from 2,000 to 13,000?

As I said above, recent free lunches have included the German stock market as can be seen from the index.

But what is your point? Are you saying you're long on the DAX until another 2 decades has gone past? Are you saying nothing without a 2 decade trend is worth buying?
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
As I said above, recent free lunches have included the German stock market as can be seen from the index.

But what is your point? Are you saying you're long on the DAX until another 2 decades has gone past? Are you saying nothing without a 2 decade trend is worth buying?
huge difference between indices and forex in terms of volatility and appreciation.cable has dropped 50 % in 20 years , euro at same value over 20 years , trading forex is dumb.period.
 

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