Article Trend Following: An Interview With Michael Covel

FXSCALPER2

Established member
964 280
chump said:
FX,
"If you have an edge, it is a mathematical fact that you will do better by taking as many trades as possible
" ...not necessarily although I understand what you are trying to say with this.... when you have an edge what is a mathematical fact is that your return will be higher by applying the maximum financial muscle to that edge that your system will permit. Whilst that might mean taking more trades it could equally be true that taking the same number of trades with more size might hold true. It depends on how your edge is constructed surely ?
Hi Chump,

In terms of the pure maths, it doesn't depend on anything. For example, if you have a system that wins X% of the time and Loses Y% of the time, where X is greater than Y and the wins and losses are the same size S, then you will always make more money by taking more trades. You can decide to bet more instead but, in normal cercumstances, you will do worse than someone who gets a lot of opportunities to trade. In addition, you can bet more (and more often) and you will make a lot more money as a result.

I am mindful of the fact that the picture will look different if you introduce psychological factors such as risk tolerance into the equation. But on a purely mathematical level, for a system that is profitable, the more you trade the better off you will be.
 

Commodity_Trader

Junior member
43 2
short term trend following

as mr. covel said : there are short term trend followers . i'm a trend follower in 5 minute time frame, actually i think there is no difference betweeen daily or 5 minute or even 1 minute.market is fractal cuz human psychology is fractal and we as human make market . i like 5 minute time frame for TF cuz i think in this way i have much more opportunity factor .
 

NVP

Legendary member
36,767 1,880
Re: short term trend following

as mr. covel said : there are short term trend followers . i'm a trend follower in 5 minute time frame, actually i think there is no difference betweeen daily or 5 minute or even 1 minute.market is fractal cuz human psychology is fractal and we as human make market . i like 5 minute time frame for TF cuz i think in this way i have much more opportunity factor .
Hi CT

Resurrecting Mr Covell eh ?.....hes certainly an energetic and interesting character who did a lot of interviewing and research to support his entertaining publications .....

So are you saying that the behaviour/dynamics of the 5min TF demonstates all of the same qualities as say the Daily and should be regarded in the same manner ?

I try to keep an open mind on most matters surrounding trading.........but probably do feel that the higher TF's are more tradable in nature as the % moves required to stimulate standard signals at that level are being recognised and reacted to by much bigger and more powerful forces that then propagate market motion......

happy to be proved wrong though.........:smart:

N
 

terminator8

Newbie
3 1
Is it just me...or wasn't this all fluff? I didn't get even one piece of wisdom. I doubt this guy has anything meaningful to say or anything to teach. I hope no one buys his overpriced trading courses...
 

NVP

Legendary member
36,767 1,880
Is it just me...or wasn't this all fluff? I didn't get even one piece of wisdom. I doubt this guy has anything meaningful to say or anything to teach. I hope no one buys his overpriced trading courses...
nothing wrong with the power of trending........its just the retraces that test the pockets and the nerves ;)
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Mr Covell sponsors Elite trader forum

http://www.trade2win.com/reviews/websites/58-elite-trader#review-5944

If a vendor sold trend trading education on the forum , the member participating in counter productive threads woould get banned , because he participated in a thread "technical anylysis useless junk science " , 80 % of trends fail and 95% of traders lose due to phsychology.

When a member gets banned , because a vendor is trying to sell trend trading books ,courses and seminars , the threads and information is corrupted by vendors's trolls , it is a shame.

There are 10,000 threads on all the forums about trend trading , hundreds of free trend trading systems and maybe over a million posts , but no clear concise answer on how to make money or trade successfully.Most of these places are littered with vendors ,sponsors and scammers and it is mainly a waste of time
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis

THE ORIGNAL TREND TRADER

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses. In the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, he reportedly lost $10 million,[8] with a total of $50 million reportedly lost in 1987–1988.[2] In 1990 his firm settled investor complaints of his failure to follow his own rules, for over $2.5 million, without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.[9] He also managed funds for some time in the mid and late 1990s, closing these operations after losses in the summer of 2000.

What is Mr Covel's perfrmance like?
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Trend set up , but no move for one whole week.Here I am waiting for trend to breakout , 80% of them fail to breakout.
 

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Jason101

Experienced member
1,366 214
What is Mr Covel's perfrmance like?
From what I can gather it would seem as though his performance is very good.
His podcasts are popular and he seems to sell lots of books.
And most importantly he seems to sell lots of quite expensive courses.
So I think he is doing very well off the back of writing a book about the turtle story.
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
Yes , he makes a lot of money from writing books and selling seminars , I hear something like $3k per attandee , $180k per seminar and over $1 m a year from everything .

There are fake posters on E T , they regularly pretend to be trend traders , so they can influence members to buy his seminars and get sponsorship of forum for $35k a year.

Markets trend about 20% of the time and spend the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks and other counter trend action that tests boundaries.Even one of his colleagues , John Henry closed his trend trading funds .

There is no evidence of him making money from trend trading or any trading activities.


Those who can, do; those who can't, teach.
Prov. People who are able to do something well can do that thing for a living, while people who are not able to do anything that well make a living by teaching.
 

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