Trading with point and figure

what next..??

dwxmy9.png
 
Ostwald, Marc
08:45 (1 hour ago)
to Marc

- Very quiet start to the week: digesting China Caixin Services PMI and
100 bps RRR cut, along with German Production; Eurozone Sentix
confidence, smattering of Fed & ECB speak the only other items

- China: Services PMIs underline swing to services as engine of growth,
but still leaves authorities with major headache to solve on industrial
sector debt

- Germany Production: unexpected dip not really a surprise, turnaround
contingent on Orders upturn being sustained

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A relatively subdued start to the week in terms of data and events, with the much better than expected and much improved China Caixin Services PMI (53.1 vs. Aug 51.5) to digest, which underlines the sharp and emphatic swing to the Services sector as the engine of growth in China. However, the targeted 100 bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut over the weekend does underline that the spectre of the industrial sector's debt burden and the headwinds that it faces from trade wars, debt servicing problems and plateauing demand internally remains the major challenge for the Chinese authorities to contend with. German Industrial Production disappointed at -0.3% m/m vs. expected +0.3% m/m, though this should hardly come as a major surprise after the protracted period of falling orders, above all in the Capital Goods sector; it remains to be seen whether last week's Orders bounce will be sustained, and by extension boost output going forward. Be that as it may, the reported -1.8% m/m in Construction (following July's +1.2% and June's -1.8% m/m) looks a little anomalous, in so far as this is one sector which has been booming all year, according to other anecdotal reports. The rest of the data schedule will hardly excite markets that are in any case rather more focussed on internal dynamics, above all the rise in Treasury yields and modestly steepening yield curve, in part a concession for this week's $74 Bln 3, 10 & 30-yr auctions and $156 Bln of T-bills. The events schedule is equally underwhelming with little more than some Fed speak from the ever dovish and rather maverick Bullard, and various meetings and speeches from the 'populist' authoritarian nihilists: Salvini, Le Pen, Orban and Erdogan


from Marc Ostwald
 
Top