Dentalfloss
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dont call levels...price took out our pivot and went on into horizontal rez before it dumped
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
Dentalfloss
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Trend break yesterday @3pm/uk
Dentalfloss
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but...
is it a dead cat bounce
is it a dead cat bounce
Dentalfloss
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SPX
our pivot still holding
our pivot still holding
Dentalfloss
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CAC 40
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OIL
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FTSE into the open
more about rez than support
lots of trendlines/down
more about rez than support
lots of trendlines/down
Dentalfloss
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DOW
our pivot still holding
our pivot still holding
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:17 (5 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Much busier day for statistics and events: Japan Orders, French
Production to digest ahead of raft of UK activity indicators, including
monthly GDP, Index of Services and Industrial Production, but focus
likely to be on US PPI; Germany & Portugal 10-yr and US 3 & 10-yr
sales; IMF financial stability and debt reports to be digested ahead
of EU draft declaration on Brexit
- Japan Orders: smashing forecasts, encouraging strength in foreign
order gives lie to drag from trade tension, also points to further
strength in CapEx
- UK GDP and Index of Services seen slowing in m/m terms, but still
pointing to solid Q3 GDP, though momentum fading; Net Exports
on course to be positive for Q3 GDP
- US PPI: energy and commodities to boost headline, Trade Services
very much the key swing factor at current juncture
- Charts: IMF selected countries 'net worth'; US IG, HY and EM avg
yield spreads, JPM EM FX index
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day awaits in terms of both data and events. Statistically there are Japan Machinery Orders, Norwegian CPI and French Industrial Production to digest, while ahead lies a deluge of activity data from the UK via way of monthly GDP, Index of Services, Trade, Industrial Production & Construction Output, with Italian Industrial Production also due, while the US has the first of this week's run of inflation readings in the shape of PPI. Central bank speakers are plentiful, above all Fed and RBA, and there will be plenty of interest in EU Barnier's presentation on the draft political declaration on Brexit. Another busy day for govt bond auctions sees Germany and Portugal sell 10-yr, while the US sells $36 Bln of 3-yr and $23 Bln of 10-yr Treasuries, for which the recent sell-off has carved out a fairly large concession. As risk appetite appears to be souring somewhat, it is worth noting that some cracks are appearing in the credit universe, beyond EM, with the US High Yield Bond average spread finally starting to widen, with a much more modest widening in Investment grade (see various charts attached), should this persist then equity market sentiment in the US will likely have to start paying some attention. On the overnight run of data, Japanese Orders smashed expectations at 6.8% m/m 12.6% y/y (vs. forecast -3.9%/1.8%), with strength in foreign orders (7.8% m/m) perhaps the most notable aspect in these trade war threatened times, though obviously also boding well for continued strength in CapEx. French Industrial Production also beat expectations (0.3%/1.6%), most notably due to another solid manufacturing output reading (0.6% m/m following July's 0.5%), which to an extent gives the lie to the somewhat sluggish Manufacturing PMI readings. Last but not least the IMF's debt report exhorts countries to make better use (improve returns) of their assets, and yet the attached chart highlights that the UK's net worth is extraordinarily poor relative to its peers (many of whose balance sheets do not look great either). But that does also raise the question of what improving returns on assets should entail, given that the UK's enormous volume of privatizations have not done its asset / liability mix much good!
** U.K. - August GDP, Industrial Production, Trade & Index of Services **
- While September data suggests that the economy has lost some of its summer 'sugar high', today's data is for August, which it will be recalled saw particular strength in Retail Sales. As such it is unsurprising that the Jun-August GDP estimate is 0.6%, though the m/m reading is seen slowing to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in July, which unsurprisingly mirrors estimates for the Index of Services. On the other hand, the picture from the manufacturing sector suggests that while it has weathered the myriad uncertainties related to Brexit fairly well for much of the past two years, it is now approaching stall speed, in no small part due to the auto sector (N.B. JLR will be shutting its plant in Solihull for twoe weeks later this month, due to weak sales to China), which in turn predicates the consensus forecast for just 0.1% for both Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output. Construction Output has improved from the weather related slump earlier in the year, the question now is that whether the backlog of work due to that hiatus earlier has been largely completed, and where output settles thereafter; the consensus looks for a drop of -0.5% m/m, reversing a similar gain in July, which would fit with indications from the Construction PMI, though the two series are at best erratically correlated, above all in m/m terms. The Trade picture has improved in recent months, and while the headline 'visible' deficit is seen widening to £-10.85 Bln, it is the Total Trade Balance where much of the improvement has been seen, with a relatively modest widening to £-1.2 Bln from July's £-111 Mln, which would suggest that net exports should make a positive contribution to Q3 GDP.
** U.S.A. - September PPI **
- In month on month terms the expected 0.2% m/m on headline and core looks to be somewhat agnostic, opting for the average, despite considerable volatility, though in y/y terms this would see headline dip to 2.7% from 2.8%, but bump up ex-Food & Energy to 2.5% from 2.3% - eminently neither would signal much in the way of pipeline pressures. While August's data saw the strength of the USD and the transient fall in energy prices push back on the (modest) tariff related pressures seen in prior months, the rebound in oil and other commodity prices in September will reverse that, and as ever the wild card will be trade services, which fell sharply in July -0.8% m/m and August -0.9% m/m, reversing the rises in May 1.0% and June 0.7% - if the weak trend in some key export sectors evident in the July and August Trade data persists, then this may again exercise some downward pressure.
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments
08:17 (5 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Much busier day for statistics and events: Japan Orders, French
Production to digest ahead of raft of UK activity indicators, including
monthly GDP, Index of Services and Industrial Production, but focus
likely to be on US PPI; Germany & Portugal 10-yr and US 3 & 10-yr
sales; IMF financial stability and debt reports to be digested ahead
of EU draft declaration on Brexit
- Japan Orders: smashing forecasts, encouraging strength in foreign
order gives lie to drag from trade tension, also points to further
strength in CapEx
- UK GDP and Index of Services seen slowing in m/m terms, but still
pointing to solid Q3 GDP, though momentum fading; Net Exports
on course to be positive for Q3 GDP
- US PPI: energy and commodities to boost headline, Trade Services
very much the key swing factor at current juncture
- Charts: IMF selected countries 'net worth'; US IG, HY and EM avg
yield spreads, JPM EM FX index
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day awaits in terms of both data and events. Statistically there are Japan Machinery Orders, Norwegian CPI and French Industrial Production to digest, while ahead lies a deluge of activity data from the UK via way of monthly GDP, Index of Services, Trade, Industrial Production & Construction Output, with Italian Industrial Production also due, while the US has the first of this week's run of inflation readings in the shape of PPI. Central bank speakers are plentiful, above all Fed and RBA, and there will be plenty of interest in EU Barnier's presentation on the draft political declaration on Brexit. Another busy day for govt bond auctions sees Germany and Portugal sell 10-yr, while the US sells $36 Bln of 3-yr and $23 Bln of 10-yr Treasuries, for which the recent sell-off has carved out a fairly large concession. As risk appetite appears to be souring somewhat, it is worth noting that some cracks are appearing in the credit universe, beyond EM, with the US High Yield Bond average spread finally starting to widen, with a much more modest widening in Investment grade (see various charts attached), should this persist then equity market sentiment in the US will likely have to start paying some attention. On the overnight run of data, Japanese Orders smashed expectations at 6.8% m/m 12.6% y/y (vs. forecast -3.9%/1.8%), with strength in foreign orders (7.8% m/m) perhaps the most notable aspect in these trade war threatened times, though obviously also boding well for continued strength in CapEx. French Industrial Production also beat expectations (0.3%/1.6%), most notably due to another solid manufacturing output reading (0.6% m/m following July's 0.5%), which to an extent gives the lie to the somewhat sluggish Manufacturing PMI readings. Last but not least the IMF's debt report exhorts countries to make better use (improve returns) of their assets, and yet the attached chart highlights that the UK's net worth is extraordinarily poor relative to its peers (many of whose balance sheets do not look great either). But that does also raise the question of what improving returns on assets should entail, given that the UK's enormous volume of privatizations have not done its asset / liability mix much good!
** U.K. - August GDP, Industrial Production, Trade & Index of Services **
- While September data suggests that the economy has lost some of its summer 'sugar high', today's data is for August, which it will be recalled saw particular strength in Retail Sales. As such it is unsurprising that the Jun-August GDP estimate is 0.6%, though the m/m reading is seen slowing to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in July, which unsurprisingly mirrors estimates for the Index of Services. On the other hand, the picture from the manufacturing sector suggests that while it has weathered the myriad uncertainties related to Brexit fairly well for much of the past two years, it is now approaching stall speed, in no small part due to the auto sector (N.B. JLR will be shutting its plant in Solihull for twoe weeks later this month, due to weak sales to China), which in turn predicates the consensus forecast for just 0.1% for both Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output. Construction Output has improved from the weather related slump earlier in the year, the question now is that whether the backlog of work due to that hiatus earlier has been largely completed, and where output settles thereafter; the consensus looks for a drop of -0.5% m/m, reversing a similar gain in July, which would fit with indications from the Construction PMI, though the two series are at best erratically correlated, above all in m/m terms. The Trade picture has improved in recent months, and while the headline 'visible' deficit is seen widening to £-10.85 Bln, it is the Total Trade Balance where much of the improvement has been seen, with a relatively modest widening to £-1.2 Bln from July's £-111 Mln, which would suggest that net exports should make a positive contribution to Q3 GDP.
** U.S.A. - September PPI **
- In month on month terms the expected 0.2% m/m on headline and core looks to be somewhat agnostic, opting for the average, despite considerable volatility, though in y/y terms this would see headline dip to 2.7% from 2.8%, but bump up ex-Food & Energy to 2.5% from 2.3% - eminently neither would signal much in the way of pipeline pressures. While August's data saw the strength of the USD and the transient fall in energy prices push back on the (modest) tariff related pressures seen in prior months, the rebound in oil and other commodity prices in September will reverse that, and as ever the wild card will be trade services, which fell sharply in July -0.8% m/m and August -0.9% m/m, reversing the rises in May 1.0% and June 0.7% - if the weak trend in some key export sectors evident in the July and August Trade data persists, then this may again exercise some downward pressure.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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do we get bought..??
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support is comin...a tad
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dow updated
pivot broke...finally
pivot broke...finally
Dentalfloss
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that zone might hold it
Dentalfloss
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