Dentalfloss
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poss 26600 supporting...lets see
Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
15:05 (27 minutes ago)
to Marc
US September 2018 Labour report: "Headline Payrolls disappointment a red herring in another strong report"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - As noted in the preview, there was always a risk that Hurricane Florence would takes its toll on today's report. But it would still be difficult to suggest that this was in any way weak, given the net 87K upward revision to July and August, the latter to a whopping 270K, which at this stage of the economic cycle bears all the hallmarks of overheating. In the details, Services were the Achilles Heel, and unsurprisingly it was Retail (-20K) and Leisure/Hospitality (-17K) which bore the brunt of the weather effects, though encouragingly both Construction posting a solid 23K gain and Manufacturing rebounding to 18K underlined that labour demand remains solid. Perhaps all the more so given that the 3-month average pace of Payrolls growth still stands at 190K, despite this month's outlier, which is also well above the Fed's assumed 'breakeven' rate for payrolls growth of 80-100K
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - A new low for the Unemployment Rate at 3.7% (vs. expected 3.8% and August's 3.9%) also gives the lie to the 'soft' Payrolls print, in so far as it was paced by a 420K rise in Employment and a 270K drop in Unemployment, in other words not some vagary due to a change in the size of the labour force (a modest +150K). To be sure, the uptick in the Underemployment Rate to 7.5% was a minor disappointment, but it remains close to its cyclical low and is till closing in on the 7.0% low of 2000.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - For once Average Hourly Earnings did not hog the limelight, coming in exactly as expected at 0.3% m/m, which thanks to the base effect from Hurricane Harvey in September 2017 edged the y/y rate down to 2.8%. Clearly this remains effectively flat in real terms, as well as showing no sign of the sort of meaningful acceleration, which might force the FOMC to up the pace of rate hikes, though equally likely to steel their resolve to keep on hiking rates for some time. The small dip in Manufacturing Hours points to a soft Industrial Production reading, but probably not much worse than flat m/m.
d) Market reaction - The modest 'sell the fact' for the USD did not come as any big surprise, both given the Payrolls 'disappointment' and the temptation for short-term traders to take profits / square their books ahead of the weekend. As for Treasuries, the continued steepening of the UST curve may surprise some, but the fact remains that the fund community has an even bigger long position in the 10 and 30yr futures than the much over-discussed 'speculative' short, and with each nudge up in longer dated yields, duration indices continue to shorten, and then of course there are 3, 10 & 30 year auctions next week, and probably plenty more corporate supply.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
15:05 (27 minutes ago)
to Marc
US September 2018 Labour report: "Headline Payrolls disappointment a red herring in another strong report"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - As noted in the preview, there was always a risk that Hurricane Florence would takes its toll on today's report. But it would still be difficult to suggest that this was in any way weak, given the net 87K upward revision to July and August, the latter to a whopping 270K, which at this stage of the economic cycle bears all the hallmarks of overheating. In the details, Services were the Achilles Heel, and unsurprisingly it was Retail (-20K) and Leisure/Hospitality (-17K) which bore the brunt of the weather effects, though encouragingly both Construction posting a solid 23K gain and Manufacturing rebounding to 18K underlined that labour demand remains solid. Perhaps all the more so given that the 3-month average pace of Payrolls growth still stands at 190K, despite this month's outlier, which is also well above the Fed's assumed 'breakeven' rate for payrolls growth of 80-100K
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - A new low for the Unemployment Rate at 3.7% (vs. expected 3.8% and August's 3.9%) also gives the lie to the 'soft' Payrolls print, in so far as it was paced by a 420K rise in Employment and a 270K drop in Unemployment, in other words not some vagary due to a change in the size of the labour force (a modest +150K). To be sure, the uptick in the Underemployment Rate to 7.5% was a minor disappointment, but it remains close to its cyclical low and is till closing in on the 7.0% low of 2000.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - For once Average Hourly Earnings did not hog the limelight, coming in exactly as expected at 0.3% m/m, which thanks to the base effect from Hurricane Harvey in September 2017 edged the y/y rate down to 2.8%. Clearly this remains effectively flat in real terms, as well as showing no sign of the sort of meaningful acceleration, which might force the FOMC to up the pace of rate hikes, though equally likely to steel their resolve to keep on hiking rates for some time. The small dip in Manufacturing Hours points to a soft Industrial Production reading, but probably not much worse than flat m/m.
d) Market reaction - The modest 'sell the fact' for the USD did not come as any big surprise, both given the Payrolls 'disappointment' and the temptation for short-term traders to take profits / square their books ahead of the weekend. As for Treasuries, the continued steepening of the UST curve may surprise some, but the fact remains that the fund community has an even bigger long position in the 10 and 30yr futures than the much over-discussed 'speculative' short, and with each nudge up in longer dated yields, duration indices continue to shorten, and then of course there are 3, 10 & 30 year auctions next week, and probably plenty more corporate supply.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Dentalfloss
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as low as you can get it
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on those inputs...its 12080-12096
the inputs could be wrong....so anything under 12080 if ya can get it
the inputs could be wrong....so anything under 12080 if ya can get it
Dentalfloss
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there is a pivot at 12018-12036 area
Dentalfloss
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dow just broke our 26570 supp area
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supp looming
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failed
feeble bounce
feeble bounce
Dentalfloss
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lookin good
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