Trading the NQ

Mactheriverrat said:
Nice chart!
The trend is you friend.
Peter Lynch
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Yes, Peter Lynch was right in my humble opinion, but only partially. He held his stocks for very long periods of time and to make any profit trending was the way to go. For us who are more nimble, ranging or trending both offer opportunities. They are both different environments and require different strategies to deal with but we are not bound by only one kind of an environment.

To be fair, though, ranging can be tricky, especially at the transition point when the trending behaviour turns into a ranging behaviour. There are pros and cons for both but there also are benefits for those who are aware of those pros and cons and can take advantage of opportunities in either environment when it presents itself.

When there's a range, there's a trend in another bar interval and vice versa. So it's a never ending story of ebbs and flows.

Gringo
 
Mactheriverrat said:
Just where can on find these notes at? Are they on T2W somewhere ? Just curious.
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dbphoenix said:
Notes is part of the book. The pdf you read is also part of it, and there is a Table of Contents at the end.
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Mactheriverrat said:
https://www.docdroid.net/3I2rU4b/wyckoff-course.pdf
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There appears to be some confusion here. The book I referred to in response to your question about "Notes" was/is my own, Trading By Price, and the excerpt from it, in pdf form, is what can be found here. The excerpt is 33pp long. The SLA portion of the book is 139pp. The "Notes" section is 181pp. What you uploaded is Wyckoff's original course from 1934. One of the reasons I wrote my book was that so many novices have trouble with a course that's nearly a hundred years old. Those who think they might be interested in the course can sample the content in my "Wyckoff Method" thread which provides the gist. Reading the original is always preferable to reading an interpretation, but, for many people, reading a century-old manuscript is not much different from reading Chaucer. However, given that Wall Street still operates according to Wyckoff principles, it's worth the effort. Those who are not clear on the difference between trading price and trading bars/candles may be interested in my "Trading Price" thread (given that it's only about 30 posts long, it should not be burdensome).
 
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Thanks for the heads up!
Your posts and insight are very interesting indeed.Your Straight Line Approach is by far a better way of looking at trends.

I may not have 1000's of post credited to me on T2W but I think I have a good Idea of charts. So you will have to forgive me as I'm just catching on the this Straight Line Approach method.
 
Mactheriverrat said:
Thanks for the heads up!
Your posts and insight are very interesting indeed.Your Straight Line Approach is by far a better way of looking at trends.

I may not have 1000's of post credited to me on T2W but I think I have a good Idea of charts. So you will have to forgive me as I'm just catching on the this Straight Line Approach method.
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Actually it's over 30,000 posts during the past twenty years, most of which are repetition, which is why I wrote the book: short-circuits the repetition. But I'm glad you find the SLA interesting. Study the AMT part as well and you'll be in good shape. Get past the bars and you'll be hard to beat.
 
BTW- Thanks again for posting your Straight Line Approach http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/207918-if-you-can-draw-straight-line-you-can-become-successful-trader.html#post2592986

As I have also a 65 page version of the STA posted on another site around the web. Both a great tools to a simple way of looking at price without all the noise of Indicators and Oscillators.

I some what know the frustration of putting something together ( like a scan filter for scanning for stocks) and people just have to add their own Indicators and Oscillators. Before you know it there is so much background noise that it becomes paralysis by analysis.
 
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BTW- Using SLA I entered JPM long yesterday afternoon.
gq5oPiS6cE.png
 
Mactheriverrat said:
BTW- Using SLA I entered JPM long yesterday afternoon.
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Actually, using the SLA you would have entered at 105 on the 3rd or 4th, but you may not have read the pdf then. And as you are approaching the median of your trend channel, pay close attention to the price behavior.
 
For the sake of consistency, and accuracy, I should point out that SLA analysis always begins with the weekly. Drawing my own chart off StockCharts.com without the colors, I see that your lines are just ever so slightly off, which is not uncommon when drawing trendlines in hindsight. The lower limit of the trend channel, both weekly and daily, on the 3rd, was about 103.5. Given that the selling pressure lessened after the 13th, 105 may be close enough, and obviously was. However, the fact remains that entering here carries far more risk than entering at the trading opportunity itself. If buyers complete their business at this level, I would think twice about lingering.
 
dbphoenix said:
For the sake of consistency, and accuracy, I should point out that SLA analysis always begins with the weekly. Drawing my own chart off StockCharts.com without the colors, I see that your lines are just ever so slightly off, which is not uncommon when drawing trendlines in hindsight. The lower limit of the trend channel, both weekly and daily, on the 3rd, was about 103.5. Given that the selling pressure lessened after the 13th, 105 may be close enough, and obviously was. However, the fact remains that entering here carries far more risk than entering at the trading opportunity itself. If buyers complete their business at this level, I would think twice about lingering.
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Keep a sharpe eye on the median of the trend channels so I at least make some $. I changed the width of the lower trend line to the smallest width. Looks better but still not prefect.
V99JfuvPgg.png
 
Today I entered short Barrick gold;

attachment.php


My technical reasons are based on AMT, price finding strong selling at previous support, now resistance, around 13,8.

But I find myself requiring more than a technical signal to enter a trade. I´m not sure if Wyckoof or DB would approve of this but my best trades always come along with a fundamental reason. To me, the realm of charting seems so sterile that I need to color it with a backstory.

In this case, I think cryptocurrency is starting to cannibalize gold and silvers "store of value" market cap. I don´t think it is a coincidence that both precious metals peaked around the same time when bitcoin started being traded. Since most of the PMs market cap is driven by store of value seekers, one might anticipate lower prices as cryptocurrencies gain prominence.
 
gotu said:
Today I entered short Barrick gold;

My technical reasons are based on AMT, price finding strong selling at previous support, now resistance, around 13,8.

But I find myself requiring more than a technical signal to enter a trade. I´m not sure if Wyckoof or DB would approve of this . . .
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My approval is not necessarily relevant. But this thread is about trading the NQ using the SLA. Since you have a journal, I suggest you post non-NQ charts and trades there, particularly if they aren't in line with the SLA.
 
dbphoenix said:
My approval is not necessarily relevant. But this thread is about trading the NQ using the SLA. Since you have a journal, I suggest you post non-NQ charts and trades there, particularly if they aren't in line with the SLA.
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It could be relevant but it certainly isn´t necessary. But this is your thread after all and you have done a great job disclosing and spreading Wyckoffs wisdom here and in many other forums.

CHeers amigo
 
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NQ Weekly

This is how I am looking at the weekly. Price is around the median and moving upwards towards the top of the trend channel. The previous swing high is around here but supply hasn't shown much gumption so far to indicate it's something significant. Maybe someone else has a better view but for me it's time to remain patient.

Gringo

p.s The TC needs to be adjusted after the NH.
 

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Gring0 said:
This is how I am looking at the weekly. Price is around the median and moving upwards towards the top of the trend channel. The previous swing high is around here but supply hasn't shown much gumption so far to indicate it's something significant. Maybe someone else has a better view but for me it's time to remain patient.

Gringo

p.s The TC needs to be adjusted after the NH.
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Remember why Wyckoff drew these channels in the first place. A chief reason was to provide a graphic display of overbought and oversold conditions, defined as those which drop below or rise above the channel (though Wyckoff didn't phrase it as such, this is what Steidlmayer was referring to with regard to value and how far traders will move away from it before returning to the median). Altering the trajectories of the upper and lower limits of the channel should be done only if absolutely necessary. Otherwise, all that information regarding overextension is lost and the channels become relatively useless.

I know you follow this in real time, but take care not to draw these in hindsight just for the sake of shortcutting or summarizing anything. Knowing when to alter these channels in real time is challenging, and one has to focus on trader behavior as manifested in the bars rather than on lines. Even then, one can't be too eager to jump in. There will nearly always be tests of one sort or another.

In this case, go back to your beginning, with the demand line drawn from February '16 to June '16. Draw a parallel supply line. This will stretch from April '16 to July '16 and beyond. Extend this line. Traders break through it the following February. Is this line tested afterward? When? What is the result of the test?
 
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