Best Thread Trading Naked

[neil]

Just wanted to post these to show what in my mind is a good 1-2-3 setup. In my (limited) experience, I reckon that the best moves come fast and hard, they don't p!ss around. For example, for those of you trading yesterday Monday on Cable... those massive pip moves almost always come fast, that's what I love to see. Look at the first chart.

However, when price retraces for too long, or the candles start getting too big... contrary to one of the persons who 'discovered' 1-2-3 setups says, I don't feel the trade is going to be as good. Not for stop placement, not for profits.

The first chart contains something I call a Darvas box (consolidation area)?

 

[Bloodhound]

Just wanted to post these to show what in my mind is a good 1-2-3 setup. In my (limited) experience, I reckon that the best moves come fast and hard, they don't p!ss around. For example, for those of you trading yesterday Monday on Cable... those massive pip moves almost always come fast, that's what I love to see. Look at the first chart.

However, when price retraces for too long, or the candles start getting too big... contrary to one of the persons who 'discovered' 1-2-3 setups says, I don't feel the trade is going to be as good. Not for stop placement, not for profits.

Hi Owain,
Thanks for posting those. I completely agree about speed of movement. I like to make money and, if I'm not going to, I like to know quickly so I can exit and look for a better entry. Re the second chart, I'd personally prefer more of a defined impulse wave into the consolidation. One thing to note, however, is that there was a nice opportunity to get out at near b/e, even after that initial spike down - worth bearing in mind from a trade expectancy point of view.
All the best
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

USDCHF - Part 1

Nice move down. Kind of busted the first level and bounced off the second. Just a case of waiting to see what happens next...

 

[HawkTrader]

The first chart contains something I call a Darvas box (consolidation area)?

Really? Where abouts, the first entry point?

Hi Owain,
Thanks for posting those. I completely agree about speed of movement. I like to make money and, if I'm not going to, I like to know quickly so I can exit and look for a better entry. Re the second chart, I'd personally prefer more of a defined impulse wave into the consolidation. One thing to note, however, is that there was a nice opportunity to get out at near b/e, even after that initial spike down - worth bearing in mind from a trade expectancy point of view.
All the best
Rob

Of course, just wanted to get some ideas flowing.

What do you mean by a more defined impulse wave into the consolidation? And sure, one wouldn't have to exit at the stop loss, most people would have exited much earlier I hope. Interesting you should point out the potentional to get out at near B/E, however that would mean holding the trade a little longer, even after seeing it "fake out". How much time would you give the trade to show you? I mean, at that point it's still a lower high, a downtrend as far as we can see. It wouldn't be invalid untill the break of the new consolidation area which also happens to be a smaller 1-2-3.

 

[Bloodhound]

Really? Where abouts, the first entry point?



Of course, just wanted to get some ideas flowing.

What do you mean by a more defined impulse wave into the consolidation? And sure, one wouldn't have to exit at the stop loss, most people would have exited much earlier I hope. Interesting you should point out the potentional to get out at near B/E, however that would mean holding the trade a little longer, even after seeing it "fake out". How much time would you give the trade to show you? I mean, at that point it's still a lower high, a downtrend as far as we can see. It wouldn't be invalid untill the break of the new consolidation area which also happens to be a smaller 1-2-3.

Hi Owain,

Good points. From my perspective, trade expectancy is a very personal thing. On cable M5 I am going into each trade with reasonable risk exposure. What this means is that I will cut trades extremely quick unless they do exactly what I would like them to/ expect them to do. This is why i agree so much with your comments about speed. I don't really have any hard and fast rules on how I manage the early phase of my trades, save to say that I don't like being offside for, either more than a few dozen seconds, or more than a few pips. That said I do have various scenarios I use to prompt me to cut trades quickly if I am getting too tied up in them. It's nealy impossible to say how I would have traded that spike in real life, but I'd like to think that I would either have just cut it dead on the close of the candle or at least moved my stop to the high of that candle, thus reducing my risk but keeping me in the trade a little longer. As ever, it's a damn sigh easier to sit her and write that, than do it in real life, but I'm slowly learning that if I hesitate on M5 I generally lose more money LOL!!

All the best for now
Rob

 

[HawkTrader]

Hi Rob,

I think we share a simaliar style of risk control! I like to cut losses quickly, but not too quickly, that's important for me. Give it room, let it breath, she's a living being... Rob knows all about what I'm saying! ;-) That's the only problem I have with shorter TF's, you have to be super quick with your decision, otherwise price has driven off without you in the backseat (or crashed into your stop)!! I just don't like holding positions overnight... ahh the crazy world of trading!

Have you ever thought about trading Direct Access Rob? I think that would suit you better, assuming you don't already, since the execution is faster and there are no spreads (apparently, never tried it).

Take it easy.

 

[Bloodhound]

GBPCHF - Finis :-(

Couldn't beat the power of sterling this afternoon....

 

[Bloodhound]

EURGBP - Finis

As with GBPCHF the spikes gave away the weakness IMO

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Rob,

I think we share a simaliar style of risk control! I like to cut losses quickly, but not too quickly, that's important for me. Give it room, let it breath, she's a living being... Rob knows all about what I'm saying! ;-) That's the only problem I have with shorter TF's, you have to be super quick with your decision, otherwise price has driven off without you in the backseat (or crashed into your stop)!! I just don't like holding positions overnight... ahh the crazy world of trading!

Have you ever thought about trading Direct Access Rob? I think that would suit you better, assuming you don't already, since the execution is faster and there are no spreads (apparently, never tried it).

Take it easy.

The only thing I think I can add is that, certainly with the way I trade M5, it's better to cut than lose. I can get 20+ set-ups a day on cable, of which a few will be winners, but most are a waste of time (for me anyway), but I never know when the money shot is going to happen. That is the one which means I don't have to trade for the rest of the week and so it's vital that I preserve my capital up until that moment. Without wanting to rant, and this is very personal to me with lower tf trading, but I think the 'anti-stop to break even posse' can lead to financial suicide on M5.

Interestingly, if I'd followed my gut instinct today on the higher tf's re this last point it would have been an all right day. I guess it's horses for courses though. I do not like being exposed to the markets for longer than I need to be - this is partly a risk issue and partly a work / life balance issue, so this higher tf stuff freaks me out. Way more stressful for me than M5. Again, that's entirely personal to me

 

[apmf]

Had a nice day today for the first time. I wish GJ behaved the same way every day
Total 9 trades for today(no more trading), netted 125.8 pips roughly.
With time I am realising that I dont have any major problem cutting my looser short but when it it comes to add another position (scaling in) I tend to get very nervous or kind of hypocrate.
Anyway I thought of attaching my trades for today.

Have a nice evening guys.
Edit: Just realized I had 9 trades not 8. T4 I wrote it twice. Apologies for the confusion, my bad!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Had a nice day today for the first time. I wish GJ behaved the same way every day
Total 8 trades for today(no more trading), netted 125.8 pips roughly.
With time I am realising that I dont have any major problem cutting my looser short but when it it comes to add another position (scaling in) I tend to get very nervous or kind of hypocrate.
Anyway I thought of attaching my trades for today.

Have a nice evening guys.

Nice Trading Paul,
That's a great result I would say. Yeah - the cutting bit is damn hard if you ask me. With scaling in, I think there are lots of ways to do it. You know what I do, but I've come unstuck a few times and it's gutting to go from a few % up to nothing!!
Brilliant day - great what a few horizontal lines can produce
All the best
Rob

 

[apmf]

Nice Trading Paul,
That's a great result I would say. Yeah - the cutting bit is damn hard if you ask me. With scaling in, I think there are lots of ways to do it. You know what I do, but I've come unstuck a few times and it's gutting to go from a few % up to nothing!!
Brilliant day - great what a few horizontal lines can produce
All the best
Rob

Thanks for your kind words.
Do you think cutting bit is too hard! I think till now I am not really having any issues with it, thats said I am very aggresive in moving my Stops. I think the reason is becoz this style of trading on 5 minutes produces on an average 10 trades(for me) daily and only 1-2 trades account for the major profits so naturally it comes into my habit of focusing on the risk and waiting patiently for the big prey.

Like I said earlier I get nervous when this unusual prey comes in and letting that trade run untill the steam is over and adding in between is a difficult part for me. I make so many mistakes of closing my winner earlier just see it move a mile away.

Anyway I am not in a position to come into some conclusion about myself as I am very new in this business.

Cheers!

 

[Bloodhound]

I make so many mistakes of closing my winner earlier just see it move a mile away.

Anyway I am not in a position to come into some conclusion about myself as I am very new in this business.

Cheers!

You and me both!!

Sometimes I think it's just hard to get the rhythm right. One thing I'm pretty sure of (with cable) is that when she wants to pay out, it's very hard not to take receipt. I know I mentioned this to you the other day but, yet again, cable would have been a tough one today (until mid afternoon), whereas GJ looked pretty sweet from 12.30 onwards. Worth considering for those days when one of them is misbehaving.....

BTW - what stop and trail are you using on GJ? Fixed 30 and then stop to b/e as soon as possible or different?

 

[apmf]

You and me both!!

Sometimes I think it's just hard to get the rhythm right. One thing I'm pretty sure of (with cable) is that when she wants to pay out, it's very hard not to take receipt. I know I mentioned this to you the other day but, yet again, cable would have been a tough one today (until mid afternoon), whereas GJ looked pretty sweet from 12.30 onwards. Worth considering for those days when one of them is misbehaving.....

BTW - what stop and trail are you using on GJ? Fixed 30 and then stop to b/e as soon as possible or different?

Rob,
Exactly what I was thinking,its really difficult to keep the rhythm. Even my eyes are paining (lol!) since I moved from 30min/1hr TF to 5min. But its fun though.
IMO developing the Hindsight to that extent when I will be able to know which pair is going to be choppy and swaping around would take me great deal of screen time. Who knows the jackpot is waiting after the half day chop. Good idea though worth exploring.
Good luck!!

 

[apmf]

BTW - what stop and trail are you using on GJ? Fixed 30 and then stop to b/e as soon as possible or different?

I am using a fixed 20 pip hard stop every time I enter with Limit order. I do nothing more than moving my stops behind each candle with a buffer of 2.5 pips+spread. If the break-out is good then I am able to move my stops to breakeven within the next 2 candles. Other wise I move my 20pip Hard stop to the low or high of the breakout candle in 5 minute.
Hope this makes sense.

 

[apmf]

I am using a fixed 20 pip hard stop every time I enter with Limit order. I do nothing more than moving my stops behind each candle with a buffer of 2.5 pips+spread. If the break-out is good then I am able to move my stops to breakeven within the next 2 candles. Other wise I move my 20pip Hard stop to the low or high of the breakout candle in 5 minute.
Hope this makes sense.

I have annotated the chart stops. Apologies if its too messy or unclear. I dont know if its going to work in a long run or not but I have done some visual backtesting and it seems ok to me so far. I agree I have a very high probability of getting stopped out but I am bringing some discretion into play when needed same like your different scenarios.
Feel free to comment or criticize.
Edit: Forgot to mention T7 was an exception becoz it was closed at the high of the day with a Take profit order@ 142.15. Reason: Gut feeling that price cannot go straight up without any retracement and that area should hold as resistance.

 

[Bloodhound]

Update on current positions

EURJPY
Bough the dust over night. With the benefit of hindsight this could have been played better. The spikes gave the game away and a bracket should have been in place to catch the short.


EURUSD
Trucking along


USDCHF
After a sketchy start this one looks ot be doing OK


USDJPY
Making up for the EURJPY fail


All in all, not a bad start to the day.

All the best
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable M5

Not such a great start today on cable with 2 trades so far. For me the key is always to reduce risk as the only thing I have any control over is how much I might lose.

She is behaving herself this morning at all IMO.

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable M5 - Part 2

I have a phobia against trading new highs of the day straight into H1 resistance as they very rarely seem to work for me - especially as this one is a round number 1.60, so I'm going to sit out the possible break upwards and focus on what happens at 6005 - any sign of weakness and I'll sell the resistance level. If the level gets busted, then who cares - move onto the next one etc.

A lower low and break of 5968 and I'm short.

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable M5 - Part 3

Well she broke down but then back hard against me. Out for break even +1 and onto the next one....