Best Thread Trading Naked

[cr6196]

cheers for starting this up kj, makes for interesting reading. i've been looking at trading what i think is a similar way on the D charts, just started live demo and is going well, so it interesting to see it on lower TFs. I've been using ATR quite a bit in this method for working out stops and exits and it seems to fit in quite well (more in theory tho cos i haven't completed the live test yet).
I have found the most complicated part of this system is working out when the trend has changed and getting the reversal right...sounds obvious but it is...as i've said already i'm looking at ATR...

I would post some of the trades that i've taken, but it is so simple there isn't much point, lol.

 

[Bloodhound]

cheers for starting this up kj, makes for interesting reading. i've been looking at trading what i think is a similar way on the D charts, just started live demo and is going well, so it interesting to see it on lower TFs. I've been using ATR quite a bit in this method for working out stops and exits and it seems to fit in quite well (more in theory tho cos i haven't completed the live test yet).
I have found the most complicated part of this system is working out when the trend has changed and getting the reversal right...sounds obvious but it is...as i've said already i'm looking at ATR...

I would post some of the trades that i've taken, but it is so simple there isn't much point, lol.

Hi there,
No post away - simple is good IMO. Would be great to see what you're doing. Without getting too deep, as it's the weekend, the more I trade the more I realise that the simpler the system the better, so I can focus on the more important stuff like good discipline, money management, focus etc.

Unless I'm trading breakouts, I tend to look a lot more for consolidations following impulse waves (1-2-3's) and the trying to ride the trend from there. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. A good example being the H1 cable trade from earlier in the thread - as was correctly pointed out to me, I missed the turning point by a mile!!! Still, win some, lose some and all that.

But please post away

All the best
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

And by the way.......

I fully intend to post trades that go wrong as well as the ones that go right - after all it's the market that calls the shots, not me. Would be great if others could follow suit

And here's a nightmare morning on cable from earlier in the week..... Moral of the story for me was that there are days when she's having a bad hair day and what I do just won't work - best to lose the money and retire gracefully to the pub.....

 

[cr6196]

alrite lol, yeh i tend to focus more on breakouts, if i focus on anything at all, i think looking at the state of the market is quite important as well, so i sometimes enter on MA retrace (this is a completely arbitrary technique of entry btw, just a way of getting in on a retrace instead of a breakout)

i try not to place to much on entry though really tbh...i don't do anything complicated at all...here are some that i entered during the week...i would add that mine take a while to develop, as i have only done backtesting i dont know how long it will take to prove me wrong etc anyway...i'm running a futures account and a forex one so i'll give two from each...as i said i think this works and if it doesn't at least ill know it doesn't...but i believe this should work whenever markets go anywhere apart from sideways, its just about making sure you don't go broke when it goes sideways...gambler's fallacy and all that...the basic point is keep it simple and if it trends you'll make something.

all these ones i entered on break of previous highs btw, ZW (entry was $450) was a mess, i got in late etc etc and eurnzd(i think), took off but has retraced to entry...

 

[inggscap]

Rob, I just got pointed to your thread today by another trader friend. Quite funny as we seem to have similar trading methods, if not almost identical. Sorry to hear you have to cut down your 5min t/f trades. Good news is that it does work on higher timeframes...

As for cr6196, working out the trend change, I tend to look at the 1HR, then trade the 5min depending on the 1HR trend and so on...

All the best Rob, I'm sure you'll do well. You said you just started (reading from the beginning post), you on the right track, keep it up!
B

 

[inggscap]

Hey,

No probs at all. I got smashed to bits on that last trade, but still up a little on the day which is the main thing (even on demo!!). It's hard to know which way to play GJ so far. I'd like to think it'd be like cable and I could just take a very aggressive stance but, looking at a few charts, it seems to have a lot more consolidation periods and may not be as punchy. Given that I have the attention span of a gnat that could cause problems!! Only time will tell though.

Am currently long, more to see if I can get my head round the spread and understand the movement a bit more than anything else. It's formed a nice little uptrend this afternoon so could carry on. Downside is that I should be in the pub by now.....

View attachment 65402

Just a quick one on gbpjpy, I've noticed over the years of monitoring it, it can give some good breakouts but there are a lot of times where it just sits going sideways or knocks about giving fake breaks. gbpusd or eurusd are much better contenders.
Just a small suggestion

 

[foredog]

Rob, EURUSD has been in a range for a looooooooooooong time round 147, or at least thats how it feels. JUst might be handy to be aware of this. Has been hardly ny decent moves in ages.


So you know on Monday it'll go 200+ points now!!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Just a quick one on gbpjpy, I've noticed over the years of monitoring it, it can give some good breakouts but there are a lot of times where it just sits going sideways or knocks about giving fake breaks. gbpusd or eurusd are much better contenders.
Just a small suggestion

Thanks for dropping in and hope you'll be back and able to put some charts up if you have time. Yes, GBPJPY was interesting. It's definitely not the same as cable in terms of the way it moves. Then again cable is very sexy until she gets in a strop, like early this week, but I'll always come running back to her.

All the best
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Rob, EURUSD has been in a range for a looooooooooooong time round 147, or at least thats how it feels. JUst might be handy to be aware of this. Has been hardly ny decent moves in ages.


So you know on Monday it'll go 200+ points now!!!

Hi Gareth,
I am taking that as a dead cert. Position size adjusted accordingly and I will blame you if it doesn't happen!!
Have a good weekend
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

i try not to place to much on entry though really tbh...i don't do anything complicated at all...as i said i think this works and if it doesn't at least ill know it doesn't...but i believe this should work whenever markets go anywhere apart from sideways, its just about making sure you don't go broke when it goes sideways...gambler's fallacy and all that...the basic point is keep it simple and if it trends you'll make something.

Have you been reading my trading plan?? LOL

Nice charts BTW. That EURNZD one struck a chord as I've encountered that a lot on cable M5. Without going into masses of detail on trade expectancy I have a set of scenarios that are always up on one of my screens when I'm trading. The scenarios are basically different things that seem to happen to price in the first 5 or 10 minutes following break-outs, 1-2-3's etc. - a little like an aircraft recognition system for anti-aircraft gunners. Anyway the point of them is to force me to take certain actions if price doesn't do what I expect it to do as I know I'm not yet good enough to always follow my trade mgmt rules without a little bit of prompting.

Getting back to that trade. It looks like it broke but then the next day price went up a bit bounced around a bit but then ended up roughly where it started - to me that shows hesitation on the part of the market and spooks me a little as I like my trades to work immediately. On M5 I'd have my stop straight to the high of that candle in case price then decided it didn't like going down any more and came back at me. I've no idea how that would work on the daily or even that market as they all seem to have their own personalities, but might be worth having a look at?
Cheers
Rob

 

[cr6196]

Yeah, i just got a bit sick of worrying over entries so just thought look for uptrends, buy new highs etc leave it at that.

Yeah i think that is the key to trading this way is having your point where you exit/ can tell your wrong absolutely, mine is based on ATR and S/R(loosely).

And you've hit the nail on the head with market personality, i think that is really important, obviously there are other markets breaking lows and highs but i only enter where i feel comfortable ( i don't know how this works yet as i could only backtest on single markets), something like AUD/NZD or EUR/CHF just aren't tradeable for me atm cos they just look like trouble.
Another thing about doing this on the dailies is i think they can grind up (not down) a lot longer than on forex 5mins altho you see it sometimes on ES/YM intrdaday. Entering on new highs in say EUR/USD/Pallidium (to give one im actually in)/ or even YM, is hard and will probs be very painful, and so I often use the standard retracement entry and buy on dips using MA, although i didn't in Pallidium which i am sure i will regret next week but i have done on the YM. Yeah market personality is so important to this way of trading, i would add that i'm finding uptrends very different than downtrends, and straight breakouts are usually fine in downtrends but in uptrends you need a bit more skill.

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi CR,
At the end of the day it all comes down to expectancy for me - whether that will hold up on the higher tf's I guess we'll see this week!! Principles should be the same though I think. FWIW, I tend to see a pulback of over half the initial move as a warning signal that things might be going wrong.
All the best
Rob
P.S. Still having IT issues but will try and post those charts later!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Levels and stuff - Part 1

Hi CR,

Well after a day spent trying to get IT nightmares sorted I think everything is working again (just). Anyway, you mentioned turning points a couple of days ago and, over the past few weeks, I've been doing some thinking about them. As you know, I'm more breakout and continuation focused, so the concept of levels holding is a bit counter-intuitive for me but here goes with what I've come up with! (cue me getting torn apart by the experts but just my uneducated ideas and would like to be put right if I'm seeing things wrong)

For me it all starts with levels (obviously) but, if I'm going to assume that levels are there to hold rather than be broken, then logic dictates that these 'levels' will be the turning points. When price turns it produces a fractal and these are apparent on any timeframe but, ultimately, start off on the lowest timeframe possible, and must look like this:



In the second half of the week two interesting levels appeared which I mentioned at the time and turned out to be quite important come Thursday and Friday:



When they were hit they produced bounces (possible turning points) or v-shaped reversals (fractals) marked A and B:



Now, to my way of thinking, in the same way that I would go long on the break of a previous swing high, surely I should do the same with the high of a fractal?



BUT (to be continued).......

 

[Bloodhound]

Levels and stuff - Part 2

BUT..

Surely I want to get in as close to the turning points as possible, otherwise my stops have to be a country mile away from where I would be proved wrong with my entry (a break of the original entry itself)?




And I'm all for managing and reducing my risk at every available opportunity so I want to get up close to the initial turning points?

This train of thought then led me onto thinking a few things:

1) I will never be able to accurately predict which levels will hold and which won't.
2) Given this I would rather be proved wrong sooner rather than later.
3) My whole trading methodolgy is based around trade expectancy rather than entries.
4) If this is the case then surely the best thing I could do is identify some obvious levels (and I personally don't think they get better than RbS and SbR), draw some lines and then sit and wait until price gets there, and then act accordingly.

Hopefully these 2 charts (which are M1 representations of the earlier H1 fractals) can explain what I mean better. I also hope that it's obvious where my head is going if one were to then factor in risk and reward etc.




So I guess my point is that, if I want to trade a turning point (reversal) then the best place to start looking for them is at obvious levels and then see what happens when price gets there. I actually had a crack at this on Wednesday and I wouldn't for a second say that it was easy, but I'm keen to develop on the idea.

Hope this is of interest

All the best

Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable M5

Quick synopsis of this morning's activity. I missed the first 2 trades of the day as I am battling with 6 open longer tf positions!! The run down was pretty good until I made the mistake of getting married to it. Anyway, all in all a good morning and the week's target done

If only cable behaved like this every day!



All the best
Rob

P.S. I'd rather not go into returns here but in pips terms this, including the 2 additions, netted 264...

 

[Bloodhound]

EURGBP & GBPCHF Part 1

Here's a couple of simple 1-2-3's on higher tf's.....




Again - a couple of lines: a point to enter and a point of no return...

 

[Bloodhound]

With the benefit of hindsight it's pretty obvious why this one might go wrong - which it did.....

 

[Bloodhound]

Couple of nice levels on cable for a bracket order...

 

[Bloodhound]

EURGBP & GBPCHF Part 2

Update on the 1-2-3's from earlier:

Both doing good with GBPCHF just under 2 times risk and EURGBP at just over 1.5 times risk.

 

[Bloodhound]

If it's not going up, then maybe it's going down instead....