Trading Fundamentals

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#1
These are the events that move the markets and therefore imho be of the utmost importance.
They may come in the form of official announcements or current events. Particularly the big players such as the US, EU and China are of special interest.

So let's have a look at today's calendar and what do we see ?

The US is going to make a Rates announcement.
Have a look at what the pundits say. These boys are pretty good. https://www.investing.com/news/fore...ks-as-investors-await-fed-policy-clues-495116
 
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Pat494

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#2
An excellent calendar is https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Today is a BIG day with lots of US action. Will the Fed move rates etc. ? That is THE question. All the USD pairs are likely to move substantially but be careful of the move being priced in already and the big boys taking profits !
 

tomorton

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Feb 28, 2002
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#4
I have to be a little apprehensive re my long-term EUR/USD long. That said, on daily forex charts, I've tried to back-track and pick out "blind" the dates when various economic event interrupted or reversed a trend. Its honestly really hard to do. It just seems that the market is usually effective at anticipating events and "pricing in" the impact.

I'm reading that a fed rate hike tonight will lift the $ (because that's what classically happens) and that it won't (because it didn't last time).

I'm sitting tight at the moment.
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#5
Yes it is not easy.
Other effects probably should have been factored in too ?
I have got software that analyses the situation automatically. It usually gets it right but not always.
For instance it is already up 1% today ( on my demo ) account.
 
Apr 3, 2017
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#6
THE DISADVANTAGES OF TRADING FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

trying to trade the news is trying to time the markets , it does not work.It has been proven that it is not a good way to trade , by timing to perfection.Fundamental analysis may show a trade , but prices may lag for months , resulting in losses for the unwary traders.

“Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.” – Mark Douglas
 

Pat494

Well-known member
Mar 27, 2004
13,032
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#7
THE DISADVANTAGES OF TRADING FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

trying to trade the news is trying to time the markets , it does not work.It has been proven that it is not a good way to trade , by timing to perfection.Fundamental analysis may show a trade , but prices may lag for months , resulting in losses for the unwary traders.

“Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.” – Mark Douglas
I think you are being a bit pessimistic. Practice should improve results.
I have to admit I am a noobie at Fundamentals but hope to improve.
 

Atilla

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Nov 15, 2006
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#9
I think you are being a bit pessimistic. Practice should improve results.
I have to admit I am a noobie at Fundamentals but hope to improve.

Yesterday was a good great day to exercise news and fundamental analysis application.

After the inflation figures cable just simply trended upward for the whole day. Simple.

If inflation rises then BoE comes under pressure to do something about interest rates to stave off economy over heating.

As we all know inflation -> rate increase -> hot currency flows strengthen pound.

Pretty straight forward really.


No point arguing / debating which is best; TA, FA or News. Use all three. (y)
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#10
Well 1.30pm UK time was the crunch time and sure enough there was plenty of movement in many pairs.
I enclose a snip of Usd-Jpy. The red vertical line is 1.30pm.
 

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tomorton

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Feb 28, 2002
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#15
Well there we go. A bit of volatility but the EUR/USD is pretty much back where we started. Admittedly the daily now looks like an inverted hammer but on its own its not something I'd open or close a trade on.
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#17
Well what have we today.
UK Bank Rate at 12.00 pm - probably no change
US unemployment at 1.30 pm - probably down
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#18
Didja get the move at 1.30 pm today in the Canadian $ ?
No ?
Then take a look at 3.00 pm at the Usd pairs. Better use the 1 minute charts from 5 mins before crunch time to 5 mins after. When it moves go with it and rake it in.

Good moving
 
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Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#19
Didja get the move at 1.30 pm today in the Canadian $ ?
No ?
Then take a look at 3.00 pm at the Usd pairs. Better use the 1 minute charts from 5 mins before crunch time to 5 mins after. When it moves go with it and rake it in.

Good moving
Ah well not much solid movement. Average figures as expected.
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#20
As per Calendar at Forex Factory not much doing on Monday 21/08.
There is however an Orange coded one for Cad at 1.30 pm.
Click on the graph icon ( far right ) and notice the previous estimates are way too modest but usually correct on up/down.
 
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