THE Fundamentals

[Pat494]

I have started this thread because the fundamentals are the underlying forces that move major markets. They are particularly relevant to the forex market with their different currencies.
The 2 big events on the horizon at the moment are the US elections and the marked slow down of the Chinese economy. The latter is further complicated when the State has been known to massage the figures.
Brexit has now come to pass. It will take the coming months to see how it pans out. The poor appointment of a semi hinged person like Boris Johnson doesn't exactly help either. Business likes a steady progress, not wild swings.

Feel free to put your point of view of world events that may affect the markets.

 

[Oscar Reed]

Everyday.

 

[Pat494]

Tensions between India and Pakistan are near boiling point. A nuclear exchange there could have profound effects.

China is showing some muscle taking over disputed coral reefs in the China Sea for military bases. If it was for marine studies and weather etc. there wouldn't be such a fuss.

Russia is being accused of War Crimes in Syria and more sanctions are likely.

 

[Pat494]

The historic decision to leave the EU creates uncertainty about the outlook for the UK economy. In the short term, investment into the UK and activity within the economy could suffer as spending plans are delayed.

 

[forker]

Perhaps the thread should be renamed to geopolitical events instead. The fundamentals are data releases which are the primary drivers. Geopolitical events definitely affect markets but more in context of risk on or risk off. Just a suggestion

 

[forker]

To add to the thread, I have been keeping an eye on the bond bubble and what could cause a run for the doors scenario.

 

[Pat494]

To add to the thread, I have been keeping an eye on the bond bubble and what could cause a run for the doors scenario.

Bond bubble ?
Perhaps you could explain further ?

 

[forker]

This article sums it up elegantly

https://www.ft.com/content/84f5371e-7f3c-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4

 

[timsk]

This article sums it up elegantly. . .

I'm disinclined to subscribe to the FT just to read one article - any alternatives that are free?

 

[forker]

You don't need to subscribe. Open an incognito window on that link.

 

[timsk]

You don't need to subscribe. Open an incognito window on that link.

No joy forker I'm afraid. This is what I'm seeing . . .



Doubtless I'm doing / not doing something silly!

 

[forker]

No I think how I access it is exposing a bug in their code. Try this, it's Google cached

https://webcache.googleusercontent....hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=ms-android-samsung

 

[forker]

and here is the link to why negative bonds are attractive

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c....html+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk#axzz4LOBcbYoP

 

[forker]

i always access ft through cached pages. you can get around the telegraph page limit with incognito windows.

 

[aex]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-biggest-buyers-are-selling-like-never-before

 

[Pat494]

Of course the oil situation has significant impact on the exchanges.
It is shaping up into a battle of the haves versus the have nots. Some countries are desperate to pump and sell more oil thus frustrating OPEC's influence to raise prices.

 

[forker]

Opec seems to have lost control

 

[Atilla]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-bond-market-approaching-dangerous-situation


Storm in a tea-cup :cheesy:

or

Tsunami en route??? :whistling

 

[Pat494]

Opec seems to have lost control

Just as well. They really over charged for decades.

 

[DarkMindFX]

Regarding the Opec's control - it's all about supply and demand (as we all know) - check here:
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
demand - 97 mb/d
supply - 95.9 mb/d

But! The recent quarters (this one and the previous one) were probably the only ones where supply is less than demand. That's why we see this rebound in prices. But I presume once the prices will tick even one penny higher the US and other will just continue to pump like crazy.