DionysusToast
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Well, I will first apologise for lack of detail on the decision making process. I am not using much information to trade off. No higher timeframe analysis, no price derived indicators, no news. I do have cumulative delta on my charts as I do have certain scenarios where I will use that information. The volume profile is pretty much redundant - I put that on my chart when I downloaded the Gomi CD indicator as a replacement to my, errr... rather less elegant one. Someone remind me to take it off.
I have price levels I watch for but I will also look for specific action to trade off. I will confirm all trades with a combination of DOM & Time & Sales. We are already gapped up over yesterdays high, so I don't have to worry about that level being of interest. I'm generally bearish today as a gap up following 2 down days could well bring in reactive selling.
So - onto my notes - these are from my trade log, this is what I log as I am in a trade. I also did a few more screen grabs than usual to make more sense of the log. Excuse my screwing up the past/present tense as I edited my notes for the log...
10:04 Trade Entry - Price took a small trip down from the open and then moved up for 20 minutes. At 1287.75 price stalled. The 'rhythm' had changed, buyers started to become a little shy about buying. Within a few minutes some big sellers came in (500, 700, 1000, 1200 lot orders). This looked like a reversal to me. I took a short 3 contracts with a limit order at 1287 on which I was filled. The fill took a while and I thought I wasn't going to get it - thankfully I did. I wasn't the only one wanting to sell there, which is nice.
Initial stop loss on the order was 5 ticks. I put first target at 4 ticks, second target 11 ticks (just above the morning low) and the last target I left open to manage later.
10:09:40 - Target 1 Hit.
Note that someone was trying to hold the price up according to the DOM/T&S at 1285.50 but the sellers are still managing to push through it but then buyers keep jumping back in. I would like to see 1285 broken (the open) to feel a little more comfortable. It's too early for a b/e stop so I am still risking the 5 ticks on 2 contracts. It is taking roughly 2000-2500 contracts to push down through each level.
OK - 1285 is now broken, it took 4481 contracts on the last push at 1285 for it to break through.
10:22 - Target 2 Hit.
It got though 1284.50 with only 1226 contracts. This is a good sign
Price has moved down to 1283.50 and then moved up 4 ticks from that low - we need to see sellers come in now as we are now looking like a double bottom, although we still have good participation from the sellers, they are not getting anything for their efforts. We need to break the low to get some acceleration as the new longs get run over.
OK - we got that push down.
The buyers of the double bottom just got run over.
10:32 - Tightening stop to 1286 as we have broken 1283 and I don't want to give too much back if it comes back up. If BIG buyers jump in, I'll bail if it moves up 6 or 7 ticks anyway
10:38 - Saw a lot of buyers coming in on the tape. Sellers have become less aggressive and I think we are heading into some chop. There is little chance of a nice clean pullback at this point and so I will exit the last contract.
Chart as of finishing this typing job.
I hope never to have to repeat this exercise of trading and having to explain myself afterwards! I genuinely felt under much more pressure because of this than if I were just trading for myself. Not nice. I can't see how anyone could run a trading room...
As a bit of an afterthought - here's a 500 tick chart from which it's easier to see the described price action (aka noise
).
I have price levels I watch for but I will also look for specific action to trade off. I will confirm all trades with a combination of DOM & Time & Sales. We are already gapped up over yesterdays high, so I don't have to worry about that level being of interest. I'm generally bearish today as a gap up following 2 down days could well bring in reactive selling.
So - onto my notes - these are from my trade log, this is what I log as I am in a trade. I also did a few more screen grabs than usual to make more sense of the log. Excuse my screwing up the past/present tense as I edited my notes for the log...
10:04 Trade Entry - Price took a small trip down from the open and then moved up for 20 minutes. At 1287.75 price stalled. The 'rhythm' had changed, buyers started to become a little shy about buying. Within a few minutes some big sellers came in (500, 700, 1000, 1200 lot orders). This looked like a reversal to me. I took a short 3 contracts with a limit order at 1287 on which I was filled. The fill took a while and I thought I wasn't going to get it - thankfully I did. I wasn't the only one wanting to sell there, which is nice.
Initial stop loss on the order was 5 ticks. I put first target at 4 ticks, second target 11 ticks (just above the morning low) and the last target I left open to manage later.
10:09:40 - Target 1 Hit.
Note that someone was trying to hold the price up according to the DOM/T&S at 1285.50 but the sellers are still managing to push through it but then buyers keep jumping back in. I would like to see 1285 broken (the open) to feel a little more comfortable. It's too early for a b/e stop so I am still risking the 5 ticks on 2 contracts. It is taking roughly 2000-2500 contracts to push down through each level.
OK - 1285 is now broken, it took 4481 contracts on the last push at 1285 for it to break through.
10:22 - Target 2 Hit.
It got though 1284.50 with only 1226 contracts. This is a good sign
Price has moved down to 1283.50 and then moved up 4 ticks from that low - we need to see sellers come in now as we are now looking like a double bottom, although we still have good participation from the sellers, they are not getting anything for their efforts. We need to break the low to get some acceleration as the new longs get run over.
OK - we got that push down.
The buyers of the double bottom just got run over.
10:32 - Tightening stop to 1286 as we have broken 1283 and I don't want to give too much back if it comes back up. If BIG buyers jump in, I'll bail if it moves up 6 or 7 ticks anyway
10:38 - Saw a lot of buyers coming in on the tape. Sellers have become less aggressive and I think we are heading into some chop. There is little chance of a nice clean pullback at this point and so I will exit the last contract.
Chart as of finishing this typing job.
I hope never to have to repeat this exercise of trading and having to explain myself afterwards! I genuinely felt under much more pressure because of this than if I were just trading for myself. Not nice. I can't see how anyone could run a trading room...
As a bit of an afterthought - here's a 500 tick chart from which it's easier to see the described price action (aka noise
).
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