Think you know probability?

[Masquerade]

I'm going for pull trigger again. I'll take my chances

 

[Paul71]

Paul you make absolutely no sense.

Why should i?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Fair enough, but if you're intent on not making any sense be a dear and do it somewhere else.

 

[Paul71]

Fair enough, but if you're intent on not making any sense be a dear and do it somewhere else.

Make your point.

 

[MrGecko]

I voted to pull the trigger again.

Can I say why?

What happens if the first shot is into the air, and a bullet goes off?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Paul, my 'point' was to stimulate some intelligent discussion on a Saturday evening for those of us not fortunate enough to be out with wives and/or girlfriends - something which was going quite nicely until you decided to come along and act like a tw*t, trying to be clever when in fact you are making yourself look like an idiot.

 

[Paul71]

Paul, my 'point' was to stimulate some intelligent discussion on a Saturday evening for those of us not fortunate enough to be out with wives and/or girlfriends - something which was going quite nicely until you decided to come along and act like a tw*t, trying to be clever when in fact you are making yourself look like an idiot.

Perception.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I voted to pull the trigger again.

Can I say why?

What happens if the first shot is into the air, and a bullet goes off?

Yes G you may explain since you asked so nicely.

To answer your question, in that case your best bet would of course be to spin again - you have a 16.66% chance of dying if you spin again, whereas you have a 50% chance of dying should you squeeze the trigger again.

 

[MrGecko]

OK (thanks)

Number the chambers 1 - 6 (clockwise), with the bullets loaded into chambers 5 and 6. Imagine the firing pin hits whatever is in the chamber at 12 o'clock, and it rotates clockwise.

Well, if it has fired a "blank" already, you are f*cked if and only if the original spin ended up with chamber 1 at 12 o'clock (then the chamber would rotate clockwise, and you have chamber 6 loaded).

On the other hand, if you spin again, you have 1/3 chance of getting it.

so my judgement is:

P(original spin landing on a 1) < P(spinning again and getting 1 - 4)

 

[Skill Leverage]

Pint on me when we meet up next week mate

 

[trendie]

Yes G you may explain since you asked so nicely.

To answer your question, in that case your best bet would of course be to spin again - you have a 16.66% chance of dying if you spin again, whereas you have a 50% chance of dying should you squeeze the trigger again.

right, I am now confused.
I determine that firing again is a better bet than re-spinning.
I calculate a 75% percent chance of survival if you fire again.
And a 66.67% chance of survival if you re-spin.

I await the explanation.
(I guess I am a retard. I can live with that, but I want to know how its calculated. (probably wont understand it, but hey, ho!) )

 

[Skill Leverage]

Here's how I see it Trendie:

(Borrowing Gecko's initial conditions) Number the chambers 1 - 6 (clockwise), with the bullets loaded into chambers 5 and 6. Imagine the firing pin hits whatever is in the chamber at 12 o'clock, and it rotates clockwise.

If the first pull of the trigger fires a bullet, you have either fired chamber 5 or chamber 6; meaning your next pull of the trigger fires either chamber 5 (you're dead) or chamber 4 (you're alive) - a 50% chance of survival.

On the other hand, if you spin again you will survive 5/6 of the time, since there is only one bullet remaining in 6 chambers.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I think trendie you are forgetting that there is only one bullet remaining.

 

[Claudia123]

Do you laugh at all your own jokes in real life, or just on internet forums

i laugh at people like you who take life soooooooooo serious. Happy valentines

 

[Skill Leverage]

i laugh at people like you who take life soooooooooo serious. Happy valentines

I love you

 

[trendie]

heres how I see it:

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

2 consec chambers have bullets. call them 1 and 2.

assuming the loaded cylinders, being consecutive, are cylinders 1 and 2:

the first pull of the trigger (at your own head) results in a click.
you are alive.
you still have 2 live rounds in the revolver.

you have empty cylinders 3,4,5 or 6.

since the first pulling of the cylinder is a click, it isnt 1 or 2.
its either 3,4,5 or 6.

if you've pulled 3, the next ones 4.
if you've pulled 4, the next ones 5.
if you've pulled 5, the next ones 6.
if you've pulled 6, the next one and you're dead.

since you havent pulled 1 or 2, you have 4 possibilities.
3 times out of 4, you will live. 75% survival rate.??

[actually, being in front of a computer screen on a Saturday night, instead of out in some lap-dancing club drinking various alcoholic beverages, I should be embarrassed, wishing I pull the occupied chamber.

will work out the options for re-turning the chambers later.]

EDIT: DOH: since you are resetting the options by randomly turning the chambers, you are back to a 2 in 6 (1 in 3) chance of re-decorating the room with your neural matter.
you still have 2 live rounds in the revolver.

so, I reckon you would be better off taking the next chamber rather than re-spinning.

 

[Claudia123]

i know

 

[trendie]

I think trendie you are forgetting that there is only one bullet remaining.

I thought that the first pull of the trigger (aimed at your head) is a click.
you still have 2 live rounds.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Ohhh, sorry trendie - I was giving the probabilities to Gecko's scenario, where the first pull off the trigger FIRES A BULLET - I think we have got ourselves confused. If you are explaining the initial scenario, you are correct that firing again has the highest probability of survival.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I voted to pull the trigger again.

Can I say why?

What happens if the first shot is into the air, and a bullet goes off?

This is the scenario I was referring to. Gecko explained the initial scenario perfectly, and I think you are on exactly the same lines.