Think you know probability?

[MrGecko]

Extention question: My gun has 8 chambers... what is the maximum distance between the two bullets where firing again is the best (life preserving) solution?

Note: I havent worked out the answer, I just thought its an interesting question.

EDIT: Just thought about it, and its not that interesting.

 

[Skill Leverage]

G-man are we assuming in this case that the first pull of the trigger produces a click?

 

[MrGecko]

yes...

... opportunites for developing the problem:

*What if my Gun fires multiple chambers?

*What if it takes multiple bullets to kill me?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Extention question: My gun has 8 chambers... what is the maximum distance between the two bullets where firing again is the best (life preserving) solution?

Note: I havent worked out the answer, I just thought its an interesting question.

EDIT: Just thought about it, and its not that interesting.

From first glance I'd say that the only way firing again produces a better outcome is if the two bullets are adjacent; in all other scenarios both actions produce a 6/8 chance of survival... I think that's correct but I'd need to think about it a bit more to be sure.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Again from first glance:

... opportunites for developing the problem:

*What if my Gun fires multiple chambers? My instinct is that I would need to know the configuration of the firing pins to be able to give quantitative answers, need to think about this though

*What if it takes multiple bullets to kill me? In this case it doesn't matter what you do if the first pull produces a blank, since you don't care whether the gun fires or not. Unless you care about getting injured I suppose, in which case, don't spin the cylinder...

 

[Skill Leverage]

If your gun fires multiple chambers and you don't know the configuration of the firing pins, it completely changes the problem, since you do not have the knowledge that you had in the original problem that only one configuration of 6 is going to kill you - those are my initial thoughts on this problem. I still think you could work out your odds of survival, but I think you would have to work out probabilities for every firing pin configuration.

There could be a shortcut I'm not seeing immediately, and again something tells me that there would be....then again I could be completely wrong on all counts, the perils of being first poster on a problem I suppose...

Verification of my analysis of your initial problem (what if the first pull fired a bullet) would be appreciated G.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Hmm think I've just had an ephiphany on this one; I'll get back to you.

 

[MrGecko]

From first glance I'd say that the only way firing again produces a better outcome is if the two bullets are adjacent; in all other scenarios both actions produce a 6/8 chance of survival... I think that's correct but I'd need to think about it a bit more to be sure.

Yeah... introducing a space between the bullets changes the nature of the problem: You are f*cked if the original spin lands on "Bullet - 1", or if the new spin is "Bullet". Both are equally likely.

(this is where the multiple firing idea came from)

my thoughts:

On firing multiple chambers: I would want to know how many chambers (and which, i.e. adjacent or opposite, etc...)and the space between the bullets.

On multiple Bullets; I was thinking more along the lines of: 16 chambers, 6 bullets, 8 "goes" and 4 bullets will kill you. What do you do, Hotshot??? ("shoot the hostage, take them out of the equation"). Add into that the configuration of the bullets.


As for "what if the first goes off".. then I agree fully with your description of the problem. You have a 50:50 (i.e. was it the 1st or 2nd bullet) or 5/6.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Have posted my thoughts on this problem in a new post, for further discussion. Should anyone be bored enough to read them that is, was quite a good mental workout for me though... could all be complete b*ll*cks too!!

SL

 

[nine]

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

You spin before you fire again.

Why?

Before first firing probability of death = 1/6
After first firing and that cylinder being proved empty if fire again probability = 1/5
If spin again then the already fired cylinder is "re"included in your chances so probability of death = 1/6

 

[Skill Leverage]

You spin before you fire again.

Why?

Before first firing probability of death = 1/6
After first firing and that cylinder being proved empty if fire again probability = 1/5
If spin again then the already fired cylinder is "re"included in your chances so probability of death = 1/6

There are two bullets in the gun mate. Learn to read.

 

[new_trader]

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

Just Pull The Trigger Again.

 

[nine]

One bullet or two. It doesn't matter. The logic doesn't change and you still improve your odds of survival by spinning it.

New trader, being a good buddhist, is simply going for the greater good.

 

[Skill Leverage]

One bullet or two. It doesn't matter. The logic doesn't change and you still improve your odds of survival by spinning it.

New trader, being a good buddhist, is simply going for the greater good.

Nine, you are entirely wrong on both counts. Congrats. You do not, repeat NOT, spin the cylinder again.

The bullets are in adjacent chambers. LEARN TO READ.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I find it pretty incredible that having been told the correct answer, 14 more people chose to vote, of whom 7 chose the wrong answer (leaving us still at 50/50).

Incredible.

 

[zupcon]

One bullet or two. It doesn't matter. The logic doesn't change and you still improve your odds of survival by spinning it.

Theres a greater than 8% improvement in odds by not spinning. The key to thinking about the solution is to remember that the 2 bullets are in adjacent chambers

 

[everyonerich]

chambers got 6 hole, and 2 is filled.

33.3% of getting hit

66.7% is empty?

 

[Skill Leverage]

chambers got 6 hole, and 2 is filled.

33.3% of getting hit

66.7% is empty?

read the bloody question.

 

[si1503]

Chances of survival: Spin = 66.7% / Pull = 75%

Correct answer: Pull again

 

[Skill Leverage]

The count now stands at 14 who have it wrong, vs 13 who have got it right.

Again, bear in mind people were told the correct answer at 5-5.

Amazing.