Think you know probability?

What do you do?

  • Spin the cylinder again, then fire

    Votes: 32 60.4%
  • Just pull the trigger

    Votes: 21 39.6%

  • Total voters
    53
  • Poll closed .

Skill Leverage

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2008
1,316
186
73
#1
I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.
 

Claudia123

Active member
Nov 16, 2008
724
56
38
#2
:LOL:
I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.
Its obvious - give spanish a call see what he recommends then do the opposite.
 
Mar 14, 2003
1,827
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www.frugi.co.uk
#5
Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.
 

zupcon

Well-known member
Nov 14, 2004
1,162
322
93
#8
It depends if you want to improve your chance of survival, or if you fancy topping yourself !

After spending an afternoon reading T2W I'd be definately inclined to re spin the cylinder :LOL: , but its truly great threads such as this that get you thinking, so with my faith in humanity temporarily restored, I'll pull the trigger.
 
Feb 2, 2007
2,056
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#9
Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.


It doesn't matter, frugi. What matters is wether or not it's a game, or just a maths question.

Who in the right mind is going to hand you a loaded gun and ask you to blow your own brains out?

Why not do it themselves?

It's a lot safer for you to kill them,....."...no Mr. Bond, i excpect you to die..."




Know what i mean?
 

hwsteele

Well-known member
May 18, 2004
1,227
181
73
43
Texas
#10
I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.
If you re-spin does it have to be a random spin?
 

fifty2aces

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2007
452
127
53
#11
Admittedly my reflex was "this is [well-known probability problem], I'll change it please", but thinking it through properly, I would pull the trigger without a respin.
 
Last edited:

Skill Leverage

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2008
1,316
186
73
#15
So much for not discussing it then...!

Fifty2Aces is spot on. At the time of posting this it was a dead 50/50 split between those who got it right and those who got it wrong.

Fifty I'd appreciate it if you (or anyone else who got it right) gave people a little time to think it out before explaining ;)