Think you know probability?

[Skill Leverage]

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

 

[Claudia123]

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

Its obvious - give spanish a call see what he recommends then do the opposite.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Do you laugh at all your own jokes in real life, or just on internet forums

 

[Paul71]

Where is BSD, these days? I hope he's not into cross-dressing.

 

[frugi]

Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.

 

[megamuel]

Easy!

 

[hwsteele]

Where is BSD, these days? I hope he's not into cross-dressing.

He pulled the trigger again with out respinning.

 

[zupcon]

It depends if you want to improve your chance of survival, or if you fancy topping yourself !

After spending an afternoon reading T2W I'd be definately inclined to re spin the cylinder , but its truly great threads such as this that get you thinking, so with my faith in humanity temporarily restored, I'll pull the trigger.

 

[Paul71]

Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.

It doesn't matter, frugi. What matters is wether or not it's a game, or just a maths question.

Who in the right mind is going to hand you a loaded gun and ask you to blow your own brains out?

Why not do it themselves?

It's a lot safer for you to kill them,....."...no Mr. Bond, i excpect you to die..."




Know what i mean?

 

[hwsteele]

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.

If you re-spin does it have to be a random spin?

 

[fifty2aces]

Admittedly my reflex was "this is [well-known probability problem], I'll change it please", but thinking it through properly, I would pull the trigger without a respin.

 

[trendie]

I would pull the rtigger again!!

 

[N Rothschild]

ive got a differnt awsner. the odds are the ****ing same!

 

[Paul71]

ive got a differnt awsner. the odds are the ****ing same!

For some, 50-50, and spinning the chamber is all they have.

 

[Skill Leverage]

So much for not discussing it then...!

Fifty2Aces is spot on. At the time of posting this it was a dead 50/50 split between those who got it right and those who got it wrong.

Fifty I'd appreciate it if you (or anyone else who got it right) gave people a little time to think it out before explaining

 

[N Rothschild]

sorry i got it wrong coz i dont know what adjacent means haha. now if the bullets where in opposite chambers it would then be 50/50

 

[trendie]

So much for not discussing it then...!

Fifty2Aces is spot on. At the time of posting this it was a dead 50/50 split between those who got it right and those who got it wrong.

Fifty I'd appreciate it if you (or anyone else who got it right) gave people a little time to think it out before explaining

whoops!
abject apologies if I messed it up. deleted post as soon as I re-read your original post.

 

[Paul71]

sorry i got it wrong coz i dont know what adjacent means haha. now if the bullets where in opposite chambers it would then be 50/50

Two bullets in six is not 50:50?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.

Great answer, see and people said 80-100% of T2W'ers were retarded... according to this poll it's only 50%

 

[Skill Leverage]

Two bullets in six is not 50:50?

Sorry confused myself there; what zupcon says below.