TheBramble's Random Squawk

[TheBramble]

China’s dispute with Philippines over the South China Sea is nothing new. Nor are they the only countries disputing those waters. But it’s a little discouraging to Beijing I’m sure to have pumped a veritable tsunami of cash into its SCS neighbours over the last decade in order to secure trading relationships (aka future-proof their energy and food resource requirements) and then have them start getting all dukesy with you.

Hey, you don’t think this sudden increase in the regions reluctance to continue taking it up the ass from its Chinese benefactors could be anything to do with Mr. U.S. of A. realigning his focus to the area do you?

If Obama also beefs up US presence in the Indian Ocean too, you can be sure it’s Game On for Africa too.

 

[TheBramble]

China's new banking rules that come into effect today and banks can now offer deposit rates of up to 110% of benchmark (reduced 25bps yesterday to 3.25%). The top 5 banks have all offered 3.5%. The banks are Eeny, meeny, miny, moe and the other is politically incorrect.

Buy dice.

 

[TheBramble]

The first dry cleaner for a quarter of a century has opened in Mogadishu, Somalia.

Business is brisk. First shirt taken hostage within minutes.

 

[TheBramble]

China will provide "sincere and selfless help" to Afghanistan. President Hu and pres. Karzai agree to increase momentum on trade, aid, investment and (as mentioned earlier in the thread) increase ‘security cooperation’ (aka take over).

The two signed a strategic partnership agreement, under which China said it would encourage Chinese investment, help build infrastructure, grant scholarships to Afghan students and provide 150 million yuan ($23.57 million) in aid this year.

Does China rally think it can buy a man of integrity like Karzai? Not for that amount they can’t.

The bi-lateral on trade, aid and investment is pretty much one way on paper, apart from the opium that the Afghanis don’t grow any more, which isn’t.

 

[TheBramble]

Rumour #1. Jordan to raise EURCHF floor to 1.22

 

[TheBramble]

German Export data more negative than expected.

Exports -1.7% v exp. -0.7%.

But on the upside imports are -4.8% v exp. -0.1%.

Damn, still in surplus. Need to trade this away before the greedy Greeks, slothful Spaniards & indolent Italians get their grubby hands on it.

 

[NVP]

"Germany is ready to back use of Euro-Area instruments". Angela Merkel.

Yeah. Last time they were Panzers. Almost worked too. No more bunker mentality Angela....

if you cant conquer Europe one way then theres always other alternatives ......ironically this time they are reluctant victors

 

[TheBramble]

DART score a bulls-eye with an estimated 90% of the €436 million bond payment made by the Greek government on Tuesday.

The ‘hold out’ bond investors (those holding bonds governed under English rather than local law and therefore not covered by the retrospective CAC) made a killing having paid an estimated 60-70% of face value. DART (and Elliott Assoc. who are also holders of much of that 10% balance) are (quite unfairly) dubbed Vulture Funds, picking up distressed debt well below par and then forcing full payment through international legal recourse. These two did a rather good job in the S. Americas a few years back using a similar approach, although Brazil is still holding out on some of the debt. So it’s not all blue skies for the vultures. Carry on.

 

[NVP]

DART score a bulls-eye with an estimated 90% of the €436 million bond payment made by the Greek government on Tuesday.

The ‘hold out’ bond investors (those holding bonds governed under English rather than local law and therefore not covered by the retrospective CAC) made a killing having paid an estimated 60-70% of face value. DART (and Elliott Assoc. who are also holders of much of that 10% balance) are (quite unfairly) dubbed Vulture Funds, picking up distressed debt well below par and then forcing full payment through international legal recourse. These two did a rather good job in the S. Americas a few years back using a similar approach, although Brazil is still holding out on some of the debt. So it’s not all blue skies for the vultures. Carry on.

Good for them......Balls carried in Wheelbarrows by the look of things

 

[TheBramble]

Yesterday’s better than expected Spanish Bond sale perplexed me as it was counter-intuitive as had been the general ease in Spanish Bonds this entire week. Until I looked at the ECB’s short-term lending data (MRO – Main Refinancing Operation). ). In February when the last batch of 3yr LTROs were issued, the banks rolled their short-term MRO loans into the LTROs which reduced the MRO. Over the past few days it has increased by over 100% (by almost €70 billion) Now government guaranteed bank bonds can be used as collateral with the ECB. My guess is that Spanish banks have likely posted this collateral against loans to purchase new and secondary government paper, cheaply. Nice and tight eh?

 

[TheBramble]

China reduces petrol and diesel prices by around 500 yuan pmt. In February when they were losing about $1 a barrel in domestic production they raised it 300 yuan pmt. Either they’ve got more efficient, are importing more now at cheaper global rates or they just need to take any action to stimulate the economy. Or any combination thereof.

 

[TheBramble]

Spain (finally) expected to request bank bail-out funds over this week-end.

 

[Atilla]

Spain (finally) expected to request bank bail-out funds over this week-end.

This is all a bit like European countries jerking themselves off - going through the motions without really doing much.

Spain too big to fail and beyond rescue asks to be rescued.

Let's say the Greek voters are scared ****less on the consequences of leaving Euro and vote to stay in? Fear is a much better motivator than well pretty much anything else really. Let's say Spain gets bailed out too. Hang on a minute. Let's not forget the Italians too.

Then what? ...


Get those printing presses rolling or prepare the public for more austerity? Either way the recession / depression will end having run it's natural cause.



Either way much ado about nothing. In another 2-3 years people will be writing clever books on how the great depression was avoided and resolved by the great European politicians.

Greece and Spain will be viewed as Iceland and Argentina are now.

People will be watching Property in The Sun and what a fine bargain that beach hut was.

Stocks and shares will be grossly undervalued and dividend payments and PE revaluations and capital growth will make multi-millionaires out of Sid. Inflation will increase companies profits and property prices.

Peace and new world order with new democratic countries will prevail.

New continents will participate in Global trade and we'll all wonder how much better life became compared to the dark ages we lived in the 20th century.


Brace your selves a magnificent majestic turn around that will astound everyone's wildest dreams.

 

[TheBramble]

I wish I had your certainty.

Or whatever it is you're smoking....

 

[Atilla]

I wish I had your certainty.

Or whatever it is you're smoking....

Like the long distance runner - it's all about the pace and timing... Watch this space

 

[TheBramble]

Japan PM Noda takes a note out of UK coalition government’s book and does U-turn on Nuclear Reactors. At least two must be re-commissioned to prevent damage to economy. Uh?

 

[TheBramble]

Spain. Risk On. Request for bail-out likely to be withdrawn or refused as Germany realises the Orderly Bank Restructuring Fund through which it had hoped to indirectly re-capitalise Spanish banks and bypass funding at National level (and thus hitting Spain with even more sovereign debt that it can’t afford) was no longer an option.

Risk On: Game On. Stocks Off the boil completely.

Is there any more Euro left to sell?

What about FB? Sell me down to $23.50. Then cover.

 

[TheBramble]

Cameron shots self in foot. Forced Marriages to be illegal.

General Election shortly.

 

[TheBramble]

The Basel III Dodd-Frank Death Star

Meanwhile, in a Galaxy far, far away, commerce is allowed to continue without being unnecessarily fettered by inappropriate regulatory overhead and knee-jerk capital requirements of abstract design, limited usefulness but unlimited capacity to pointlessly constrain…

 

[TheBramble]

The China CPI/PPI data tomorrow has all the rumblings of being a real stinker.

CPI prev. +3.4 v est. +3.2 (-0,2%)
PPI prev. -0.7 v est. -1.2 (-0.5%)

Well, if we short the hell out of everything today, we shouldn't be too wide of the mark come opening bell on Monday.