TheBramble's Random Squawk

Jordan taking it to the line again. He's a little minx.

Still have my protest 'Reality Check' Short in place...
 
EU says it hasn’t received any request for funds from Spain (again).
Oh yes they have.
Spain says it hasn’t requested any funds from EU (again).
Oh yes they have.
Rehn and Barnier say no mechanism to re-finance Spanish banks directly from ESM (yet).
But in a flick of a switch, there will be, if only through a different route or by another name.
Nobody has told Spain there isn’t enough in the EU pot (any of them, in total even) to help anyway.
But that doesn’t matter. The rather unusual sound of the can being kicked, but not making contact further down the road? Hmmm… no more road left, that’s it!
I suggest you read between the lines.
 
not to mention i think it was rajoy? or someone else who said spain had been effectively excluded from capital markets
 
Don’t forget. In just under an hour’s time, those of you on Retail FX platforms will notice your brokers widening the spreads ahead of the ECB rate decision, just shortly before you inexplicably lose connectivity with them for a short period. A few minutes. Maximum.
 
How can a US Embassy (Benghazi) be ‘targeted’ by a roadside bomb?

I mean, it’s not as if they get out and about much is it.
 
TheBramble said:
Don’t forget. In just under an hour’s time, those of you on Retail FX platforms will notice your brokers widening the spreads ahead of the ECB rate decision, just shortly before you inexplicably lose connectivity with them for a short period. A few minutes. Maximum.
Click to expand...

Surely not? I have complete faith that all SB platforms in particular will be working perfectly, with 1 pip spread and no slippage. However, just in case of that one-in-a-zillion chance of things going wrong, I'm closing everything.
 
Germany has constitutional issues with Euro-Bond (yeah, right). But supports in principle the concept of a Redemption Bond (they’re more Catholic than the Catholics since the war.). Until they realise, whichever way you slice it, it’s going to cost Maximillian and Sofie a bucket load of hard-earned Teutonic surplus. So, now the constitutional issue is being waved again as a potential roadblock.

All roads lead to Frankfurt, but Berlin mans the checkpoint.
 
$700 trillion derivatives leveraged on $70 trillion Debt. This is the G10 situation.

If you’re banking on the majority of that being held by those two of the ten that aren’t in immediate danger (Switzerland & Sweden) then you’re in good company with the rest of the ostriches.
 
TheBramble said:
Don't think so. $2K target.
Click to expand...


Gold didn't pass $2Kduring first major banking crises and this 2nd dip will not be as prolonged nor severe as the first. You'd be lucky to see $1.8K if?

Moreover, problem this time round is isolated to Europe and even there handful of countries.

Analysts will talk it up as they usually do but beware. Bilateral swaps and dollar will be key area of strength.

Euro is much ado about nothing. Blow over in a year or two which will take us up to the 5-7 year end of economic cycle - depression/recession call it what you will.


Only thing I can see taking gold up higher is geopolitical tensions ie war in a region impacting flow of oil.
 
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Atilla said:
Only thing I can see taking up gold higher is geopolitical tensions ie war in a region impacting flow of oil.
Click to expand...

If they ( Israel, USA ) don't strike soon they will miss the window of opportunity. Iran will have the bomb. Why do they feel they need one ? God only knows but Madandbad is determined. Some sort of Middle Eastern show-off machismo. Saddam Hussein liked to pretend he had WMDs. But now we know it was just bluff. How childish !!
Apparently the new Russian made anti aircraft missile systems bought by Iran are next to useless as the US has bought the codes, frequencies etc.

If only they would talk peace and reconstruction !! Fat chance I suppose.
 
Atilla said:
Gold didn't pass $2Kduring first major banking crises and this 2nd dip will not be as prolonged nor severe as the first. You'd be lucky to see $1.8K if?

Moreover, problem this time round is isolated to Europe and even there handful of countries.

Analysts will talk it up as they usually do but beware. Bilateral swaps and dollar will be key area of strength.

Euro is much ado about nothing. Blow over in a year or two which will take us up to the 5-7 year end of economic cycle - depression/recession call it what you will.


Only thing I can see taking up gold higher is geopolitical tensions ie war in a region impacting flow of oil.
Click to expand...

Tosh.
 
Atilla said:
Gold didn't pass $2Kduring first major banking crises and this 2nd dip will not be as prolonged nor severe as the first. You'd be lucky to see $1.8K if?
Click to expand...
Well, I wouldn’t try to press too much rationale or effort into refuting my views Atilla as I don’t really go with the fundamentals in that way too much. For me it’s sufficient to get a view of what others are doing (well away from the trading arena)and strategize what that will more likely mean across a broad range of asset classes rather than attempt to work out why one specific instrument ‘A’ may be doing X or Y. I take a very long-term view on pretty much everything (except currencies which I also trade very short-term occasionally) so it doesn’t need, nor is it likely, to make ‘obvious’ sense based on technical, or on pure market fundamentals per se.

Atilla said:
Moreover, problem this time round is isolated to Europe and even there handful of countries.
Click to expand...
That’s not the case. The problems are systemic in nature and global in coverage. The areas least affected by it are those who were further ‘outside’ that system when the doo hit, were less well developed within it or who had not gone down the same asset bubble based on junk debt route. But they will all be affected indirectly to greater or lesser extents. The Scandis are doing better than most (Iceland even going in for another shot at a property bubble, bless them) and Australia/NZ and Asia doing well compared to many. The South Americas have their own problems which are not directly related to the primary systemic one. Africa largely untouched.

So no, not just a handful on countries in Europe. The EZ and the Euro are just a small part of the problem.

Atilla said:
Analysts will talk it up as they usually do but beware. Bilateral swaps and dollar will be key area of strength.
Click to expand...
DCS? Early days. USD$ key area of strength? Don’t forget currency has three primary purposes and store of value is just one of them. Medium of Exchange requires a counter-party of similar grade of credibility or physical equivalence.

Atilla said:
Euro is much ado about nothing. Blow over in a year or two which will take us up to the 5-7 year end of economic cycle - depression/recession call it what you will.
Click to expand...
A bold statement. Maybe. Maybe not. But as suggested above, a sideshow compared with the much wider and deeper systemic issues.


Atilla said:
Only thing I can see taking gold up higher is geopolitical tensions ie war in a region impacting flow of oil.
Click to expand...
Which region? Any region? Where does our physical Gold come from (newly mined)? Where do the greatest aggregations of physical Gold already mined live? And as importantly in your final scenario, who owns that Gold and where are they physically situated? If I were to choose a region to experience war in order to pump the price of Gold I know exactly where I’d choose. Do you think we can get it trending on twitter, you never know.
 
TheBramble said:
Well, I wouldn’t try to press too much rationale or effort into refuting my views Atilla as I don’t really go with the fundamentals in that way too much. For me it’s sufficient to get a view of what others are doing (well away from the trading arena)and strategize what that will more likely mean across a broad range of asset classes rather than attempt to work out why one specific instrument ‘A’ may be doing X or Y. I take a very long-term view on pretty much everything (except currencies which I also trade very short-term occasionally) so it doesn’t need, nor is it likely, to make ‘obvious’ sense based on technical, or on pure market fundamentals per se.

That’s not the case. The problems are systemic in nature and global in coverage. The areas least affected by it are those who were further ‘outside’ that system when the doo hit, were less well developed within it or who had not gone down the same asset bubble based on junk debt route. But they will all be affected indirectly to greater or lesser extents. The Scandis are doing better than most (Iceland even going in for another shot at a property bubble, bless them) and Australia/NZ and Asia doing well compared to many. The South Americas have their own problems which are not directly related to the primary systemic one. Africa largely untouched.

So no, not just a handful on countries in Europe. The EZ and the Euro are just a small part of the problem.

DCS? Early days. USD$ key area of strength? Don’t forget currency has three primary purposes and store of value is just one of them. Medium of Exchange requires a counter-party of similar grade of credibility or physical equivalence.

A bold statement. Maybe. Maybe not. But as suggested above, a sideshow compared with the much wider and deeper systemic issues.


Which region? Any region? Where does our physical Gold come from (newly mined)? Where do the greatest aggregations of physical Gold already mined live? And as importantly in your final scenario, who owns that Gold and where are they physically situated? If I were to choose a region to experience war in order to pump the price of Gold I know exactly where I’d choose. Do you think we can get it trending on twitter, you never know.
Click to expand...


Accurate assessments of current situ., Mr B and I concur with these views however, I perceive our current scenario better than where we were Q4 08 - Q1 09 when we were looking down a precipice - never been here before, how much is that T-shirt? 😱

Other than increased competition from the East and growth in some new continents (all good for the global economy) there is nothing that's going to change the global economy in any fundamental way. BAU imho.

Key threats I see are;

1. Bubble in China with severe stalling of their growth
2. Rise in oil prices once recovery is fully under way
3. Israel doing something stupid in the name of self defence and attacking blameless Iran

With the exception of 3 no big deal just business as usual.
 
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