The Volatile IBEX - a simple trading strategy..

Options,

I'm a little confused here. Playing around with the indicators until they "work" is curve fitting isn't it?

Isn't it more about getting the indicators on an 'optimum' setting so they 'indicate' a trade accurately ?
 
Isn't it more about getting the indicators on an 'optimum' setting so they 'indicate' a trade accurately ?

Optimisation IS curve fitting isn't it? Taking an indicator that doesn't work and tweak it until it does...Where is the control? How do you calibrate your indicator?
 
Optimisation IS curve fitting isn't it? Taking an indicator that doesn't work and tweak it until it does...Where is the control? How do you calibrate your indicator?

The indicators that I've used have worked ok from the beginning, we've altered the settings to get in the trade earlier -ie. changing the settings on the stochastics to signal the very early start of a reversal.
 
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A simple trading strategy..

On a slightly different tack, I've been on the 5 min charts today, and noticed that over the last couple of weeks simply entering a trade as the price crosses over the 50ma gets at least 10/15 pips per day, often more and only one break-even trade. I'll back test it a bit more later.
 
Isn't it more about getting the indicators on an 'optimum' setting so they 'indicate' a trade accurately ?


Exactly.

New trader. If you put a standard indicator on 50 charts with differing time frames then look at how it reacts with the price, you will see it works on some, does not on others. They are just guides to your trading and will either assist or harm your trading. Most are lagging indicators but are good indicators of trend. One size does not fit all and is successful or not depending on how you use them. IE, if you take a trade after a cross of say a 10 and 50 ma you will be in a trade late and may not have much left in the current run, If you take a trade after the price crosses a indicator in a certain way, near a pivot point or sup and res point. You then get in earlier and with more chance of success.

I would suggest using your favourite time frame and going back out as far as you can go. Pick an ma indicator. It doesn't matter which one it really doesn't. Then adjust to 'catch' the turns. History has just shown you where it has worked in the past, and now offers good chances of it working again.

Curve fitting is adjusting the indicator to get the result you want, which in a way you are, (is that so wrong?) but you are letting the price tell you what works and what doesn't. And you have no say in the outcome, only of the choice of indicators to use.

Curve fitting is seeing mirror days, or outside days that aren't quite there technically and qualifying them anyway.
Now that is a dangerous thing to do!
 
Eyes open for the ibex and the usd/chf.

Both at prime points on an hourly chart right now.
 
Eyes open for the ibex and the usd/chf.

Both at prime points on an hourly chart right now.

Nice looking short for the Ibex !! Well done Options. Do you do a bit of Forex as well ? Do the puppies work ok on that ?

NK
 
Dr Krugerand.

Yes I do. My main stay the last few years have been fx. Although as I mentioned before I favour longer time frames for the fx.

What we could do on this or another thread. (Your choice) is to post a heads up whenever something looks interesting. The longer time frames would be better of course. Posting here on a 1 min would be no good.
 
Good idea. I quite favour the 5 min chart now - a lot more relaxed. I'll do the ibex and you do the forex ? Shall we start a new thread for it ?

NK
 
Forex broker

Dr Krugerand.

Yes I do. My main stay the last few years have been fx. Although as I mentioned before I favour longer time frames for the fx.

What we could do on this or another thread. (Your choice) is to post a heads up whenever something looks interesting. The longer time frames would be better of course. Posting here on a 1 min would be no good.

Hi Options
I've seen a post from someone at forexyard.com on this site. Have you or anyone tried them?
http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/choosing-broker/?r
 
Well. I look at 60 min charts to start with and only if it is approaching a particular point will I go in and shorten the time frame. Or If the market is at key trading times, such as the open, or someone else's open. For example. Went, and still am short the dow from a couple mins past 3.

Let's keep it on this one to begin with. Ibex and dow, if I see anything pop up on fx I'll shout.
 
Swissy Still going up. Doesn't look too great on the 3 min, but hour is good. Still needs to be 'released'

Dow trade is still going well.
 
Swissy Still going up. Doesn't look too great on the 3 min, but hour is good. Still needs to be 'released'

Dow trade is still going well.


Good show. I've been doing numerous non-trading things this morning so haven't had all the screens on, but just glanced at the Dax for the day, and a nice puppy trade was up for grabs right in front of my eyes.

The most amount of points still seem available on the Iberian Penninsula though....
 
Good show. I've been doing numerous non-trading things this morning so haven't had all the screens on, but just glanced at the Dax for the day, and a nice puppy trade was up for grabs right in front of my eyes.

The most amount of points still seem available on the Iberian Penninsula though....

Mein gott und himmel!

(I don't actually know what that means. I Don't intend to upset our German cousins), but.

Yes lovely pair of 'puppies' on the hourly chart
 
Since I'm doing extensive backtesting.

Nice pair of triple puppies (Daily 39-1-8) on 2 October 1987 and 8 October 1987 on the FTSE100. We all know what happened soon after!
 
well that was a short lived run on the dow.
Flat on this now but at a critical point on the hourly chart. Just have to wait and see.

Additional: Well the 60 min chart is showing extended unequal 'puppies' for a move down. So I am waiting to get on that at the appropriate point.
 
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