T2W Bot

Staff member
1,498 115
IntroductionThe Holy Grail is quite possibly the most famous piece of Christian mythology. Almost every archaeologist, historian, Christian and capitalist would love to find it, and many dedicate their lives towards its pursuit. It is said that those who drink from The Grail will be blessed with eternal life, whether that is spiritual or physical is open for debate (unless you have read ?The Da Vinci Code? where the last thing you would do is drink from it!). Perhaps that explains why Indiana Jones may appear in a fourth film despite his increasing age.
When we talk about the Market Holy Grail we don?t mean a cup that promises ever lasting life, more a cup that you can dip into the markets and pull out a never ending supply of money. But wait a minute, this sounds too good to be true? Or does it? Warren Buffett and George Soros have made billions from their investments in financial markets, maybe they found The Grail. The Internet is teaming with market ?gurus? who offer to...

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Pat494

Legendary member
14,621 1,578
Largely what every intermediate trader knows only too well having usually found out the hard way.
 

Legion

Active member
160 4
what constitutes a grail though ? does it have to be 100% 80% or proved beyond a random guess rate? for puposes of discussion assume the stop exited & targets meet a min 1 unit risk = 2 taken reward.

what would be considered grail any consensus?

.
 

Olipro

Junior member
35 1
essentially, a holy grail only has a finite life since in my experience the markets are always changing; and also, I use the word "grail" with a degree of leniency since I'm sure we're all quite aware that nothing in the known universe is guaranteed and hence there is always at minimum a .0001% or so.

As a result, these proprietary black-box solutions and other swindles generally only work for a certain period of time before something will change and gradually whittle away at its success rate; it's the precise reason that I find I am always on the lookout for the first signs of trouble with any of my own strategies that I have developed, and will aim to adjust them accordingly; generally I manage this by being a lot more stringent with my trades as I find the market becoming more difficult and then eventually figuring out a way to adjust myself to the new playing field.

by the same token, some people will also find consistency works, and I apply a consistency nontheless in other aspects, but again, I thought I'd offer my 2c.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,489
Excellent article, I can identify with every single word of it. Blood, sweat and tears...but I think that "aha" moment has finally arrived.
 

Legion

Active member
160 4
what if the black wasnt Black but kind of opaquey transparent in nature ie you code a few thingies but based on dynamics of price itself and then market behaviour itself.... how could the market fake its own behaviour or rather who would be doing this? and what would it look like?

does a grail have to be boxed in black?
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,489
Legion said:
what if the black wasnt Black but kind of opaquey transparent in nature ie you code a few thingies but based on dynamics of price itself and then market behaviour itself.... how could the market fake its own behaviour or rather who would be doing this? and what would it look like?

does a grail have to be boxed in black?

12 months ago I would have been asking the same question so I get the impression you haven't reached the 'aha' moment yet. The 'Grail' is YOU and has little or nothing to do with the system you are trading even though it is a component of successful trading. I have spent many, many hours manually back testing a strategy. It takes around 3-4 hrs/ 1 month of data but the knowledge I have gained is invaluable. There is no way I could have automated this back test and made it profitable.

Computers don't learn from experience but people do. I made my first live trade yesterday since I developed my new strategy and I have never before made a trade with such confidence. I had my stops set and trailed them, just like I did in my manual back test and it was absolutely perfect. I expect some losses to come my way but I am not bothered at all.

If you are going to manually back test you must be completely honest with yourself and open and close trades according to your strategy. This can be difficult to do when your strategy says you must trail a stop and close it for a 2 point profit when you can see the chart would give you an extra 7 points if you kept your position open until market close.
 
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damianoakley

Established member
542 57
The Holy Grail is different for everybody.

One person's perfect system could be another person's failing system if the two people have opposite personalities.


Thanks

Damian
 

rols

Experienced member
1,621 336
new_trader said:
12 months ago I would have been asking the same question so I get the impression you haven't reached the 'aha' moment yet. The 'Grail' is YOU and has little or nothing to do with the system you are trading even though it is a component of successful trading. I have spent many, many hours manually back testing a strategy. It takes around 3-4 hrs/ 1 month of data but the knowledge I have gained is invaluable. There is no way I could have automated this back test and made it profitable.
.

Good post.
 
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Legion

Active member
160 4
damianoakley said:
The Holy Grail is different for everybody.

One person's perfect system could be another person's failing system if the two people have opposite personalities.


Thanks

Damian

yes agree to a point, but if the grail whatever it is, (I mean can anyone define it a set of minumum criterior etc....) matched (by evidence of it being played out that way) then I would of thought most personalities would see common ground of using an identical system.

Unless the personality is intent on continually obtaining negatives for the owner no matter what they pursue..

so to be classed as a grail it has to be what exactly?

Simple beyond subjective ambiguity?

Profitable

Reasonable hit rate (Beyond 70% ,80%?)

Able for the layman to understand within a short timespan ?

The system is based on logic tailored to the market therefore it actually makes sense and can be understood by the users after simple concepts of behaviour is explained, this is of course backed up with empirical evidence ,meaning they can watch it realtime,check it historically

low consecutive losing trades how many ? no more than 2?

with the personalities using a system it wont match etc I see this as explaining a basic softball game of using bat to hit the ball and giving 2 people with very different personalities and saying o.k would you like to use the Bat or a piece of cooked spaghetti to hit the ball?

wouldnt they both use the Bat ?

Now the grail I suggest has to be that clear yes? if it aint, it cannot be classed as a grail...
 

Charlton

Experienced member
1,501 325
Article shows you where to look

Climb every mountain, search high and low
Follow every byway, every path you know.
Climb every mountain, ford every stream,
Follow every rainbow, 'til you find your dream!

A dream that will need
all the love you can give,
Every day of your life
for as long as you live.

Climb every mountain, ford every stream,
Follow every rainbow, 'til you find your dream!
 

rols

Experienced member
1,621 336
Charlton said:
Climb every mountain, search high and low
Follow every byway, every path you know.
Climb every mountain, ford every stream,
Follow every rainbow, 'til you find your dream!

A dream that will need
all the love you can give,
Every day of your life
for as long as you live.

Climb every mountain, ford every stream,
Follow every rainbow, 'til you find your dream!

Thanks for that Charlton. Love is all you need etc.
 

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