The DarwinIA lottery demo portfolio supported by the Hall of Fame

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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
You have to consider performance and management fees so you need some free cash.
Management fee will be deducted from the sales of every month.
Performance fee will be taken when selling the allocation and after 3 months.
Fees cut the amounts of the new allocations.
It is planned to allocate about the full amount left, divided by 10 as new share size after the monthly sell tracations.
After a bad month or because of these fees that could also be less than 500.
Share sizes must not be stable for all months, I will continue to use my excel for the documentation so that I know easier which amount is to sell.

As it is not possible to reduce the size of the demo portfolio, I couldn't start only with the winners of August.
I decided to start fully invested as performance would be cut significantly if I would start only with the winners of August.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
As I was just preparing my excel for the next month end and new allocations, I found out how much gross profit the new allocations of August made with there previous allocations until end of August.

In August there were 6 Darwins new in my top DarwinIA allocation list:
ICX, JTL, KGL,OLP, OOS, UAE

The other 4 Darwins made a total gross profit of 186.70 USD until end of August with their active previous allocations since April 2021 (allocations ending end of August 2021 are not included):
1630756836636.png

1630756857415.png

1630756890709.png

Profit calculated is in USD and not in EUR, but I didn't change that setting for the excel as it is just a working sheet.
Same is with allocations on the demo portfolio, $500 per share, so percentage data are true.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
How much negative divergence do you usually tolerate before selling a Darwin?
Currently the only rule to sell a Darwin is after 6 month when the notional allocation of the DarwinIA prize is removed, after a Darwin had won a prize.
The DarwinIA eligibily criteria exclude Darwins with a divergence worse than -0.4 when the competition results are final. That could be a lucky snapshot.
So - currently - I would tolerate any divergence as long as the Darwin is in the portfolio, as a real investor I would not. There my tolerance values would be -0.3 or -0.5 depending on the return rate.
 
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morehastelessspeed

Junior member
34 31
Thanks. I am trying to find rational criteria to define an in-portfolio threshold.
The last Darwin I sold into profit purely because of consistently increasing negative divergence (NWO after 6 months) was already cancellling more than half (55%) of it's return rate in the portfolio.
The most negatively divergent one I currently hold into profit is cancelling 11% of its return rate after 14 months.
So, I feel the optimal tolerance threshold must be somewhere in between, but I have not settled it yet.

Currently I don't buy a Darwing with a divergence below -0.2
 

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
The last Darwin I sold into profit purely because of consistently increasing negative divergence (NWO after 6 months) was already cancellling more than half (55%) of it's return rate in the portfolio.
I hope you sold it before August 17th this year. ;)

This young demo portfolio currently shows a positive divergence over all Darwins ...
1630869801391.png

... where the best (PME, shown divergence on the Darwin -0.27%) shows +1.00% and the worst (THA, as expected, shown divergence -0.13%) has -0.06% in the portfolio data.
The initial divergence of demo portfolios is not really reliable as there was no real trade when you buy or sell a Darwin in a demo portfolio. That should be smoothed more to reality over days and months.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
September is finished with a small drawdown in this portfolio.
1633036062216.png


A share of $ 500 will be sold by these Darwins as the DarwinIA allocation of the March contest is running out now.
The gross profit of the last six months shows that 80% will get a payment from the notional allocation.
1633036344935.png


AUX and ZTY will leave the portfolio as there was no other allocation made in the last 6 months (including the September contest). I did not check whether these two Darwins should have received money from the first payment after three months.

Unfortunately the sales ended with a small loss which cuts the investment possibility for the September allocation.
1633037768400.png


For September there was $ 25.43 management fee paid which is deducted daily from the portfolio balance:
1633036702480.png


There appear 4 new Darwins in the portfolio from the September allocation: BOT, CBV, FFV and ULC, and six well known ones.
1633037682652.png


The new allocation will be made with $ 474.00 as there are $ 4,747.65 left for investment (with leverage x3). The one-digit rest is left as cash for upcoming fees.

JTL cannot be bought currently as the transaction is blocked at the moment. So I will try it tomorrow again.
This is the current order list:
1633038172134.png


The public lists linked in my last post above are updated after the September transactions.

I expected some dilution in the first 6 months after the initial portfolio setup as it cannot show the DarwinIA history up to 6 months ago.

Edit:
JTL could be bought now:
1633040604812.png


Retained performance fee from the sales was $ 10.25 ...
1633040703330.png

for these Darwins where shares could be sold with profit:
1633040814831.png
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
October ended with a smal DD on equity, which was produced on Friday after the protfolio showed small profit also on Thursday.
1635719844778.png

The allocation from May will be sold for these Darwins:
1635719952458.png

Seven out of ten Darwins made profit over the last 6 months period.
HEO, NWO and WFJ are leaving the portfolio now.

Seven of these Darwins could be sold with profit:
1635720107840.png


The small loss of September could be compensated so the portfolio now shows an overall profit of 16.50 on closed positions.

After selling the ended allocations, the portfolio now has $ 5,054.73 available for new investments. But the new shares will be bought for $ 500 each as there are more than $ 100 to pay for investor fee on open positions which will be charged end of November (after 3 month) to reduce the liability end of November.

Looks like October was very different to the previous months as there are 7 new Darwins in the portfolio now:
BSX, GBI, OMJ, TMF, TYL, YGT, ZCD.

These are the new allocations from the October DarwinIA contest:
1635720875503.png

Which were bought with a share of $ 500 each:
1635721398243.png

The portfolio has 45 Darwins now.

The retained performance fee is $ -32.38:
1635721499836.png
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
Even if the portfolio has to compensate losers (one is currently exceptionally losing), it looks like it comes to reliable profitability when the first payment date for the two DarwinIA payouts comes closer after 3 months:
1636401385814.png

After 3 months the portfolio has stability on payments.
After 6 months all assets were bought after the related DarwinIA allocation and the portfolio is running fully in line with the rules and DarwinIA payment dates.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
647 615
For and after November the portfolio shows profit:
1638309132466.png

As I wrote earlier, I expected some dilution on the results at least for the first 3 months, so after these 3 months I am confident that this strategy will work for a profitable portfolio.

The allocations based on the DarwinIA results of May will be sold now after 6 months:
1638309288822.png

In this 6 months period only 5 traders could show profit.
4 Darwins will leave the portfolio now: BZC, DQB, SKI and TKT.
Sell transactions on SKI and SYO were blocked for an hour because a market was closed.
So their is a delay between selling 8 of 10 Darwins and buying the new allocations for November.
That turned the result of the closed P&L to losses again.
1638313637900.png


These are the new allocations from the DarwinIA results for November 2021:
1638309924029.png

We have 4 new Darwin now in the portfolio: GRI, LEN, HZY and VSR.

As $ 4,617.48 were available for buying new positions, each new position gets a share of $ 461.00. This is the smallest share bought in the last months.
1638313527321.png


These are the top 10 on closed P&L (and retained performance fee of $ 46.98) of the first 3 months:
1638310594719.png

Performance fee for the open positions will be paid in the next hours/day(s), depending on Darwinex's procedure.

$ 79.44 were paid on management fee since the portfolio exists. Unfortunately there is no selction for the last month available.
1638310560878.png
 
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