swingin' the ftse: 2008

[barjon]

Barjon wrote -

Then a strong rise through that difficult 6000 level which changed the swing trend to up followed by six days of consolidation and then a long entry signalled on 25/5 at around 6079 - that should still be in play.

good trading

jon

Jon, this raises an interesting dilemma for me. I agree with the long signal on 25/04. If I had been long from 6079 at that point, the stop I would have set (about 5951) would not have been triggered, but would I still be holding? I think I would have been shaken out either by the second successive down day, 30/04, or by taking profits as we passed 6200, or definitely by the 6 annoying congestion days starting 06/05. Are you or is any user of this thread still long from the 25/04 trigger? - you deserve every single point for holding your nerve if so![/QUOTE]

Tomo

no, i'm not in this one since it came when i was sunning myself in madeira.

usually i'd have taken off half equivalent to initial stop loss - giving 1:1 on that bit (some take 100 or 150 points for this) and raised stop on the rest to b/e where it stays 'til some form of further swing low appears when it's raised to that. It should be up by that congestion now but, since the price is well away from it now, I might be inclined to move to just below friday's low.

good trading

jon

 

[trigger]

Hi barjon
I shorted june puts near fridays high and also at yesterdays high with a few more so will be looking to sell some off this week.

steve

 

[tomorton]

Have a good time jon.
Someone on the board recommended a three-part stake in these swings, take the first part out at b/e, the second part at early profit target, and let the final third run. I am trying......

trigger -
Good luck steve, very soon Wall Street must catch up with Main Street as they are saying in the US. The US markets cannot stay this strong when the economy is this weak. One modest geo-political shock could tip the balance.

 

[trigger]

tomorton
I feel so too, imo wall street is being, dare i say it, artificially pumped up on low volume which as you say can tip at the sniff of data thats not factored in

steve

 

[tomorton]

At last! A stampede of bears!
I have taken a good slice of profit with one-third of position and set stops for rest - second third will close at 50% off lowest back up towards break-even, final third at about 75% retracement towards my entry.
The US is still trading of course, but its harder to see a meaningful rally from here tonight than another good fall tomorrow for us bears.

 

[trigger]

Took a decent profit tuesday, albeit too early and missed out on another 30 points, had to work yesterday, so back at it today, will try to get a few short contracts in near the open

good luck everyone

steve

 

[barjon]

just a quickie before i go out - potential swing low today and long entry will be signalled at 6227+

good trading

jon

 

[klw]

just a quickie before i go out - potential swing low today and long entry will be signalled at 6227+

good trading

jon

Hi Jon I would be looking at closer to 6240 + as signal for long entry as I see resistance as anywhere up to that point or am I splitting hairs ?

 

[barjon]

hi klw

yeah, the resistance zone stretches to 6273 and some might wait for it clear that (if it does). If an entry comes at 6227 it'll need careful watching I think.

good trading

jon

 

[atrim]

Hello

I see a small battle raging at the 6150 level. Does the FTSE usually respect these round numbers?

 

[Splitlink]

Hello

I see a small battle raging at the 6150 level. Does the FTSE usually respect these round numbers?

Probably a lot do. If a lot do then that is where a lot of stops and limits will be.

Take a look at the lows right back into April and you will see that that area served as a turning point, or support. I bought at 6143, with a stop at 6137. Very close, but seems to have worked.

I've raised my stop into profit, so will not lose on this trade, now.

Hope that helps.

Split

 

[Splitlink]

Probably a lot do. If a lot do then that is where a lot of stops and limits will be.

Take a look at the lows right back into April and you will see that that area served as a turning point, or support. I bought at 6143, with a stop at 6137. Very close, but seems to have worked.

I've raised my stop into profit, so will not lose on this trade, now.

Hope that helps.

Split

I'd like to say that I took 20 points out of that trade, but I didn't. I took 10. I see that the index has dropped all the way back to where I entered so I was justified in having a stop placed.

Don't take heed of what some say about Fins, BTW. I find that the new platform works the indices and Forex very well.

What now?

 

[Splitlink]

The averages seem to be strongly down, don't they? My experience tells me to beware of those, with 90 mins to NY open.

I'm for lunch!

 

[klw]

The averages seem to be strongly down, don't they? My experience tells me to beware of those, with 90 mins to NY open.

I'm for lunch!

Agred Splitlink --- Well we've got some kind of turning point for the moment. Looking for 6210 as next target up and 6270 after that. Volume not that good so I'd be suprised to see any more upside than that but as they say " anything can happen "

 

[Splitlink]

I knew this was going to short but......

I opened a short trade at 1325, used the 10 points that I made this morning as a stop loss and went to work.

As so often happens to me, when I try this, I got stopped.

Split

 

[tomorton]

Split - Bad luck. The FTSE quotes I see on Fins often make large and sudden moves between 1130 and the US open, often these do not follow through into the pm action, they just shake out the close stops. 10 points too tight for me.

Tuesday a good candidate for going long if Friday is confirmed as swing low. The March uptrend remains intact but if going long I will be conservative: though both the Dow and S&P are approaching their 50MAs so a bounce might be anticipated, both have also breached their last swing lows.

Also a potential 80-20 daytrade long, if we open with a gap down and then rally through 6088.

 

[barjon]

tom

Aye, potential swing low, as you say, but not an entry 'til 6176 with a stop around 90 points lower (split will have a heart attack ) . Can day trade it in anticipation if it moves that way on Tuesday, of course. We've lost about 50% of the rise since mid-April which is a good point for a bounce if it's coming. The fall has been pretty precipitate, though, with around seventeen days worth of rise being undone in four days and a minor swing low broken on the way. Still in up swingtrend until 5952 goes so should be favouring the long side, but it seems right to be cautious.

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Split - Bad luck. The FTSE quotes I see on Fins often make large and sudden moves between 1130 and the US open, often these do not follow through into the pm action, they just shake out the close stops. 10 points too tight for me.

Tuesday a good candidate for going long if Friday is confirmed as swing low. The March uptrend remains intact but if going long I will be conservative: though both the Dow and S&P are approaching their 50MAs so a bounce might be anticipated, both have also breached their last swing lows.

Also a potential 80-20 daytrade long, if we open with a gap down and then rally through 6088.

I don't think that it was anything other than the market rising to 6170 before dropping.
I've followed up those Fins spikes before but, so far, they coincide with other charts. Not to say that it does not happen but I've yet to catch them.

 

[tomorton]

At last! A stampede of bears!
I have taken a good slice of profit with one-third of position and set stops for rest - second third will close at 50% off lowest back up towards break-even, final third at about 75% retracement towards my entry.
The US is still trading of course, but its harder to see a meaningful rally from here tonight than another good fall tomorrow for us bears.

Posted this 20/05 while short on FTSE and this went pretty well. Took 92pts with first third, 184 with second and closed final third this pm for another 188. We may still fall from here as today was only an inside day, and not swing low on either FTSE or S&P but I am happy with these points in a week and major bear leg has stalled, so risk/reward suggests cash better tonight.

Waiting now for rise through Tuesday's high, around 6142, to enter long. Finished with shorts for now though could be tempted to jump back in if we break down through 5951.

Can't understand why I still haven't go that Lexus parked outside.

Good luck all.

 

[Splitlink]

Good for you, tomorton. It couldn't have happened to more deserving person than the one who puts so much effort into this thread.

Split