Swing and Position Trading

[aspex]

Personally, I would like this BB to reinvigorate with discussions on the whys and wherefores relating to particular stocks.
In addition and because I like CFDs opportunities of talking about the top 350 shares (where CFDs are widely usable).
Of course there are others but the spreads and the lack of gearing can be a deterrent.
On another post I shall start with RBS and why.

 

[aspex]

RBS
As many will know, RBS has been out of favour in comparison with some other banks. possible reasons include the apparent urge to expand into many markets and the fear that the reasons for doing so are not easily spelled out or accepted.
The latest move into BOC with undertakings not to go further for three years and the comparatively small entry cost , paid for by liquidating Banco Santander holdings is a potential trigger to allay fears for future steps and to tell investors that management decisions are well considered.
I have held a RBS CFD for some time and in fact am in negative territory once interest cost of holding are included. i now feel confident that the short view is up and intend to double my stake.

Comments?

Comments on any other FT350 shares? Hopefully with reasons.
Do not forget the shorting potential as well, though this may be dangerous in the current bullish phase.

 

[bracke]

RBS
As many will know, RBS has been out of favour in comparison with some other banks. possible reasons include the apparent urge to expand into many markets and the fear that the reasons for doing so are not easily spelled out or accepted.
The latest move into BOC with undertakings not to go further for three years and the comparatively small entry cost , paid for by liquidating Banco Santander holdings is a potential trigger to allay fears for future steps and to tell investors that management decisions are well considered.
I have held a RBS CFD for some time and in fact am in negative territory once interest cost of holding are included. i now feel confident that the short view is up and intend to double my stake.

Comments?

Comments on any other FT350 shares? Hopefully with reasons.
Do not forget the shorting potential as well, though this may be dangerous in the current bullish phase.

aspex

Your post is of interest because rbs is one of the shares on my watch list.

I gain the impression that your trading is based on fundamentals, my own is based on price and volume. As I type this the price is at 1641 What is your target and how did you arrive at it.

The support/resistance zones are tightly packed which may be ok for a day trader (which I am not) but make it more difficult for medium/ long term trading when one is looking for a minimum 2:1 profit when compared with the stoploss.

Your analysis of the fundamentals may be correct, I cannot comment.

I would like to see a retest of the April low of 1560 before going long or at least another touch at 1600.

I agree with your comment relating to shorting, it is dangerous to trade against the trend unless you possess impeccable timing, excellent information or have been blessed by Lady Luck.

Regards

bracke

 

[aspex]

bracke,
RBS. Volumes have been higher than average recently but I am only interested inmedium term movement as most of the time the market is live, I am asleep anyway.
RBS only because I have had an open CFD for some time already and I have been interested.

I am interested in others on your watchlist and why.
(If you feel there is too much data to post, send an email through the private message system)

My classic case is RTR where I had it shorted using CFD down to 96p and then failed to get advantage from its run to 250p and finally above 400p. The profit from a £1000 risk would have been over £30000 even after interest and a start point of 120p on the rise.

 

[bracke]

bracke,
RBS. Volumes have been higher than average recently but I am only interested inmedium term movement as most of the time the market is live, I am asleep anyway.
RBS only because I have had an open CFD for some time already and I have been interested.

I am interested in others on your watchlist and why.
(If you feel there is too much data to post, send an email through the private message system)

My classic case is RTR where I had it shorted using CFD down to 96p and then failed to get advantage from its run to 250p and finally above 400p. The profit from a £1000 risk would have been over £30000 even after interest and a start point of 120p on the rise.

aspex

I currently have 10 companies on my watchlist. My trading strategy is based on price /volume and more specifically support/resistance zones and trend breaks.

The stocks on my watchlist include avz, mrw, bsy, wlf, rbs, al, gsk, sn, azn. They have been selected because in most cases their s/r zones provide a trading opportunity which enables a potential profit of twice the stoploss to be taken. I will not take a trade unless the s/r zones allow a 2:1 potential profit. The stoploss is ascertained from analysis of the chart, including previous swing high/low and recent highs and lows.

I am very wary of trading against the prevailing market trend.

How do you select your trade entries and exits?

Regards

bracke

 

[Rex79]

Hi bracke, aspex

I'm entered long on RTR last Fri.

reasons - bounce of support level at 360 (formed last december)
weekly MACD histogram ticking up & (cross over on daily)
13 day ex MA starting to hook up.


the other long I'm waiting for is LLOY, expecting it too rise but a little too early to enter.


all comments appreciated.

 

[aspex]

Hi Rex, bracke,
Have either of you read "Come into my Trading Room" by Alexander Elder?
If younrecognise 'Hound of the Baskervilles" and example is CSB
http://www.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_...0&ind1_2=&ind2_2=&ind_type3=0&ind1_3=&ind2_3=

The dips in mid July and mid August with the MACD histogram markers indicate a large resurgence and that is just what happened from 47p to 64p now (+35%)

I am not a TA type but evidence like this makes me wonder.

 

[Rex79]

Hi Rex, bracke,
Have either of you read "Come into my Trading Room" by Alexander Elder?
If younrecognise 'Hound of the Baskervilles" and example is CSB
http://www.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_...0&ind1_2=&ind2_2=&ind_type3=0&ind1_3=&ind2_3=

The dips in mid July and mid August with the MACD histogram markers indicate a large resurgence and that is just what happened from 47p to 64p now (+35%)

I am not a TA type but evidence like this makes me wonder.

hi Aspex - I can't access advfn at the moment , but I have read Alexander Elder's Trading for a living (a while ago) , and can't quite remember the 'Hounds of the Baskervilles', (is it some sort of false signal ?) can you explain a little more.

I am working from one of the basic entry principles from A.Elders book, and that is the weekly MACD ticking up from a low - this is the first requirement of my entry point.

i also use candlesticks on my weekly charts, and then swich to daily to find the exact entry. I'm still a bit wobbly at the moment though.

I've put 2 charts in to try and explain my thinking, again all comments appreciated.

Thanks,

Rex

 

[Col_Stiffler]

Morning techst@,

I'm still spread-betting at the minute - so placed a buy on it at 977, (I know - spread-betting's no good, compared to CFD's - I am looking to go that way soon), -

I'll just explain my situation - I check equities in the FTSE 100 at night, only concerned with stocks priced above £9-£10ish - for spread betting i need stocks with plenty of points movement, I use metastock for my charting.
My problem is in the day I work as an engineer and am sitting behind my desk, I can only check prices/charts on MoneyAm.com ( I have restricted internet access ), when I actually place a buy/sell bet, i have to do it using a PDA and mobile phone. (The amount of wasted energy is unbelievable - but I'd rather try the hard way than not at all).

Over the next few weeks I'm hoping to switch to CFD's, then I can at least i can place orders at home in the evening and close them by phone if needed.

( i start building a house soon, so I might have to stop completely),

bit of a laughable way to trade - but am still learning in the process,

Rex

Hi Rex,

Which spreadbet company are you using?

I have restricted internet access at work too, but one spreadbet trading platform I am able to use is Captial Spreads. Might be worth you giving that a try if you havent before?

Also, CS have fairly recently upgraded their platfrom to allow placing of orders out of market hours. So you can check your stocks in the evening, place buy/sell orders with associated stops and even specify an automatic profit taking order (i.e. if your trade is activated and your pre-determined profit target is hit, it closes the trade for you.) It's pretty good. Having said that, if you find you can access the CS website from work this might not be required.

Hope it's useful to you... cheers

 

[Rex79]

Hope it's useful to you... cheers[/QUOTE]

Cheers Col_Stiffler,

That's exactly my problem- if CS allow you to place orders out of hours, i'll be swithcing immediately, wouldn't like to use the work computer for placing orders, it's sackable offence to use our work computers for personal gain, so I'd rather not risk it.

Cheers

 

[Col_Stiffler]

Rex,

No problem... and I take your point - best to be safe in that respect!

But yes, CS is definitely worth checking out. It should solve your problem.

Regards

 

[bracke]

Hi bracke, aspex

I'm entered long on RTR last Fri.

reasons - bounce of support level at 360 (formed last december)
weekly MACD histogram ticking up & (cross over on daily)
13 day ex MA starting to hook up.


the other long I'm waiting for is LLOY, expecting it too rise but a little too early to enter.


all comments appreciated.

Rex79

Agree with the 360 s/r zone but I see another one at 373/375 (see chart below) If it does get over, the next s/r zone is at 414. Unable to comment on LLOY as it is not on my watch list. I did look at it but the s/r zones were too close for my trading strategy.

Regards

bracke

 

[techst]

Interesting play. With hindsight it would have been a great if you held on for a second retest , or then got out and re-entered. The problem for me is that it's a countertrend swing trade which does mean that it can always whip say you out if you've trained your eye to look for uptrending swing stocks. And usually its a short move upwards, needing a really sharp eye to pull the trigger before it gets messy. Recently trapped myself in EMA at 820.50 which looked like a textbook play for my strategy. Have a look at EMA yourself, see if you can position yourself for the second swing.

 

[Rex79]

Interesting play. With hindsight it would have been a great if you held on for a second retest , or then got out and re-entered. The problem for me is that it's a countertrend swing trade which does mean that it can always whip say you out if you've trained your eye to look for uptrending swing stocks. And usually its a short move upwards, needing a really sharp eye to pull the trigger before it gets messy. Recently trapped myself in EMA at 820.50 which looked like a text play for my strategy. Have a look at EMA yourself, see if you can position yourself for the second swing.

I am still long on RTR and closed the position on LLOY 2 days ago.

can't really comment much on EMA -- would expect it to hit 850 though.

rex

 

[techst]

EMA's made a huge move today, halfed my position size and took advantage of todays almost vertical action!

 

[aspex]

Whereto RTR from here? :arrowu: :arrowd: :?:

 

[bracke]

Whereto RTR from here? :arrowu: :arrowd: :?:

aspex

I comment from a price/volume point of view - rtr is on my watch list, the indicator brigade may have a different perspective.

If you look at the chart you will see that it is holding just above the s/r at 375 and has done so for a couple of weeks, there does not appear to be anything special about the volume.

If it does manage to take off the next resistance is at 415 if it drops below support at 375 the next support is at approx 358.

I do not know which way it will go but will watch and wait.

Regards

bracke

 

[Rex79]

morning bracke, aspex,

I've had a look at RTR and I think it'll rise in the short term but hit resistance at the trend line marked on the chart - I think that trend line will be the deciding point,

( my guess though is it's going to pass straight through that line), but I wouldn't put any money on it yet!

Rex

 

[bracke]

morning bracke, aspex,

I've had a look at RTR and I think it'll rise in the short term but hit resistance at the trend line marked on the chart - I think that trend line will be the deciding point,

( my guess though is it's going to pass straight through that line), but I wouldn't put any money on it yet!

Rex

Rex79

The trendline on your chart and your comment suggests that the price will rise to approx 400 which coincides with the s/r at 415 shown on my charts below. However yesterday the price fell below the s/r at 375 and may drop to the s/r at approx 358.

Judging by the price movement and volume there does not appear much support for this share, unless there is some very good news I suspect that the price will continue to hover around 375.

I don't guess about share movements, I have learned to trade what I see.

Regards

bracke

 

[aspex]

I suspect that RTR is not one to put your hat on either long or short at this moment despite some brokers suggesting big gains (kiss of death?)

Personally I would like to look at swing trading prospects in the FTSE100 and possibly the 250 as well that do have the potential to move away from present levels.
I accept both long and short opportunities here.

Meanwhile i will look around and make asuggestion or two.
Would one of our very small group here like to profer theirs?