Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
Watchlist - Monthly Charts

To continue on from my post earlier in the week, here's another bunch of monthly UK stock charts that are either making large Stage 1 bases or have moved into early Stage 2 on a monthly basis. These are for a watchlist for a potential pick for my ISA soon.
 

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Rewardz

Junior member
31 2
ISATrader. I am wondering where you show your 4 year support trendline coming in for spot silver? I wanted to compare. News out this afternoon in the states that FED is considering following the UK in stopping QE this year mid year or by year end. Headlines everywhere and the metals (gold & silver) plunging.....Silver futures down over 4% as I write this...breaking multi-month support.

What level are you showing is the "official" break of that 4 year trendline for silver?

Thanks
 

lplate

Active member
116 7
ISATrader. I am wondering where you show your 4 year support trendline coming in for spot silver? I wanted to compare. News out . . .
silver has been sideways for 18 months so is not of interest.
$SILVER - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Suggest you reread book, and summarise its simple rules in 5 sentences and stick to those, instead of getting distracted by all these side issues. To discuss side issues, go to other threads, following example of isatrader on market breadth etc
 

rjay

Active member
122 0
I believe Isatrader is using a Mac app to do his research, but I just wondered what other people are using ? I currently use Sharescope on PC but (a) it's overpowered for Weinstein's method and (b) it doesn't carry US sector indices, so I'm looking to move to a (preferably online) alternative.

Any suggestions ?
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
I believe Isatrader is using a Mac app to do his research, but I just wondered what other people are using ? I currently use Sharescope on PC but (a) it's overpowered for Weinstein's method and (b) it doesn't carry US sector indices, so I'm looking to move to a (preferably online) alternative.

Any suggestions ?
A few online charting programs that myself and other people on that have posted on the thread use are stockcharts, FreeStockCharts, and prorealtime. Although I'm not sure if prorealtime has the US sectors. But the first two do. I use the paid for "Extra" service on stockcharts, as it gives you more options on the charts like overlaying a moving average on the relative performance indicator to make it into the Mansfield RS from Weinstein's method, as the 52 week MA of the relative performance versus the S&P 500 is the zero line. But they have a 10 day free trial, so you can see if you like it or not.

For non online options as you noted I'm using a Mac so I use ProTA Gold which is an EOD program, and another member uses MetaStock, and between us we managed to get it setup in the same way as the charts I post on here.
 
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rjay

Active member
122 0
A few online charting programs that myself and other people on that have posted on the thread use are stockcharts, FreeStockCharts, and prorealtime. Although I'm not sure if prorealtime has the US sectors. But the first two do.
Thanks, much appreciated.
 
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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
ISATrader. I am wondering where you show your 4 year support trendline coming in for spot silver? I wanted to compare...
For the trendline drawn as Weinstein suggested in the technically speaking interview, it comes in at around the $29 level. But a bit a lower if you use the weekly closing data like I prefer. But I've attached the chart using the ultimate lows for you. A few things to remember with Silver. It has a strong correlation with Gold, over 90%, so always watch Gold when trading Silver as it's support and resistance levels will affect Silver too. The overnight move in the Gold (GC) and Silver (SI) futures has given them a potential continuation move in their early Stage 4 declines. However, Non Farm Payrolls is today and comes out when the Gold/Silver pit session begins (13.30pm GMT, 8.30am EST) and so it's not wise to do anything before that's been absorbed by the market imo, as they have volatile sessions on NFP days.

I know you are already in the Silver trade, so I'll just repeat what I said before, which is that although short term Silver and Gold are in Stage 4, they are both still within a much larger Stage 3 / 1 range and are approaching strong near term horizontal resistance which has held multiple times. So just be aware of where the support levels are.

As lplate said, to talk in more detail and actively about it with Silver and Gold day traders there's some good side threads like: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/124202-silver-27.html#post2039380 and http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/164370-gold-2013-lack-lustre-year.html#post2046544 and member YouAreNotFree is the active Silver day trader on the boards that knows the market well imo.
 

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Rewardz

Junior member
31 2
For the trendline drawn as Weinstein suggested in the technically speaking interview, it comes in at around the $29 level. But a bit a lower if you use the weekly closing data like I prefer. But I've attached the chart using the ultimate lows for you. A few things to remember with Silver. It has a strong correlation with Gold, over 90%, so always watch Gold when trading Silver as it's support and resistance levels will affect Silver too. The overnight move in the Gold (GC) and Silver (SI) futures has given them a potential continuation move in their early Stage 4 declines. However, Non Farm Payrolls is today and comes out when the Gold/Silver pit session begins (13.30pm GMT, 8.30am EST) and so it's not wise to do anything before that's been absorbed by the market imo, as they have volatile sessions on NFP days.

I know you are already in the Silver trade, so I'll just repeat what I said before, which is that although short term Silver and Gold are in Stage 4, they are both still within a much larger Stage 3 / 1 range and are approaching strong near term horizontal resistance which has held multiple times. So just be aware of where the support levels are.

As lplate said, to talk in more detail and actively about it with Silver and Gold day traders there's some good side threads like: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/124202-silver-27.html#post2039380 and http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/164370-gold-2013-lack-lustre-year.html#post2046544 and member YouAreNotFree is the active Silver day trader on the boards that knows the market well imo.
Thanks IsaTrader, you are a great help to us all.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
US Industry Sectors

Attached is the updated US Industry Sector charts and the relative performance table. The massive reversal over the thin volume New Year period has caused some notable changes to the sector charts with four of the nine sectors breaking above their Stage 3 ranges to start potential Stage 2 continuation moves. They are Financials (XLF), Basic Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Technology (XLF) broke above it's three month Stage 4 pattern and moves back into Stage 1A imo. Whereas Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care are still in Stage 3B, but note that Energy broke above it's recent swing high, and Utilities is still the laggard in Stage 4B- imo. So a very different overall picture to what we saw last week.

 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
Attached is the updated major charts for your own stage analysis and the relative performance table.



This week saw the German Dax and the Russell 2000 break out to new highs. The Dax also continues to be the strongest on the relative performance table versus the S&P 500, although it was briefly knocked off last week by the VIX which has plummeted to the bottom spot this week, highlighting the extreme move we've had. There was also breakouts to 52 week highs for the FTSE 100 and the NYSE indexes, but both are now approaching resistance from their 2011 highs.

The Nasdaq 100 is the weakest of the indexes, but it's good to see the Nasdaq 100 move up the relative performance table a few places as it's been near the bottom for a long time now. This weeks move saw it break above it's 30 week WMA and the 200 day MA, and also the swing high of the recent range. So I now consider it to be back in Stage 1A.

The S&P 500 is moving up to challenge it's September 2012 high of 1474.51 after reversing above it's trendline for the 5th time and the 30 week MA momentum has also turned positive again. The short term moving average breath chart shows that 89.80% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50 day moving average. That's 449 of the 500 stocks, and so it's at an extreme reading in the short term. I have it as in Stage 3 still, as it would need to make new highs to make a Stage 2 continuation move imo.

The Dollar Index moved strongly from the lower part of it's range that's been developing for the last four months since it's Stage 4 breakdown failed to break below the previous support from the beginning of 2012. It closed above it's 50 day MA, but below a still declining 50 week WMA, and so although there is a clear range developing, it is not yet "officially" in Stage 1A, and so I have it as Stage 4B- currently.

US Treasuries were probably the most interesting charts of the week imo, as they tried to break down below critical horizontal support at the bottom of their major Stage 3 ranges, but had a strong volume reversal on Fridays session to close above the breakdown levels. And so it will very important to monitor these in the coming week as if they hold support the stock indexes will pullback. But if they fail and breakdown significantly, then we could see the continuation moves in the stocks power onwards for a while. So I think these Treasury charts are key in the coming week.

I've also updated the market breadth thread for those that are interested in determining what the weight of evidence is currently suggesting from the market internals. Here's the link: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/147476-market-breadth-23.html#post2047474
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
European Indexes

I thought it would interesting to have a look at the charts of the European Stock Indexes as the DAX has lead the relative performance table on my weekly update for over 6 months now. So attached are the weekly charts which are all in Stages 1 and 2 unlike the US indexes.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
I wanted to do a follow up on lplates FXI pick from October 2012 on page 77 here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/134944-stan-weinsteins-stage-analysis-77.html#post1987370 as it has reached the initial swing target that I noted just below 40 and broke through major longer term resistance last week into Stage 2 properly, although the Stage 2A breakout point was probably the break above the swing high in early December, and so now becomes more interesting on a longer term basis if it can hold above the breakout level. Short term it looks a bit extended and so it's probably wiser to wait for a pullback now if you are considering it imo.

But well done to lplate if he took it at the traders entry he highlighted on the 11th October, as it's had a 8.47% x ATR(200 day) move since then, which is excellent imo, and is a great example an aggressive Stage 1B trader pick. I previously said I'd put the initial stop loss at 33.35, and that would have moved up to under 35 at the beginning of December when the second swing low was completed, and now you could possibly push it further to below the more minor recent swing low which was at 38.88, but personally I'd still keep it below the 50 day MA as well to give it a bit of room because that pullback was only minor. So I'd put my trailing trader stop under 38 at about 37.85 now I think. For an investor stop it needs to go under the last major swing low and the 30 week MA, so would go under 35 imo.

I'll try to keep an eye on this trade in the thread to have an ongoing example on here of using the trader and investor trailing stop methods, as I haven't done any properly since the silver trade at the beginning of the thread, so will be something different. I'll also do some other ones as well when I see a some good candidates come up.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
Ford (F) Stage Analysis

I was just having a look through the charts and came across Ford (F) in the US and it just jumped out at me. It formed a small head and shoulders pattern in it's Stage 1 base over the 2012 summer, and broke out above it and the 200 day MA on strong volume and formed a small consolidation during November and early December, which gave the Stage 2A breakout level. On the 19th December it broke out into Stage 2 and volume started to increase significantly to more than double the weekly average. Relative performance versus the S&P 500 has also picked up and it's broken above it's zero line as well. Finally near term resistance from earlier in 2012 was also cleared last week, so it's looking in good shape in Stage 2. Near term it's overbought, so I'd again be looking for a pullback entry point to form before getting in as the ideal Stage 2A entry point was missed.

[EDIT] I've added the GM chart as well, as it is in the same same sector and is making a similar early Stage 2 move.
 

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Locked in

Junior member
15 1
One that I have been following for a few months now and whose chart looks similar to isa's Ford post (which I love) is Yahoo (YHOO). It has had a very long consolidation period (over 4 years) and has recently broken out on a very fast climb to breach resistance with a strong move positive vs SPX. The volume is borderline there but I think the trade has potential. Again, like the Ford chart, it looks overbought right now but should consolidate that away and continue up imo.

Any thoughts?


On another note, I was just wondering which Weinstein trade was the most successful for everyone in 2012. Mine would have to be HOV which is still on the rise. Even though i abandoned it way too early by not following the rules (gotta learn somehow...)

What is yours?
 

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