I think it's obvious why Dionysus' posts can be construed as promoting his business. He often talks about how people need to learn about the tape for success, and forget most of TA and charts, and his product is directly related to tape reading. So the promotion is not direct, but the connection with his comments is. The dismissal of other methods only makes it clearer. There's no rocket science here.
Fair points and well stated.
I hear you. Thing is I am passionate about this, this is how I trade. I believe 100% in what I do with total conviction. I believe enough to put my own money on the line on a daily basis. If I didn't believe in it, I'd still be constantly searching for something better, I'd not be confident when trading and ultimately I would fail.
This is why there is a lot of butting heads on these forums. We have to believe with total conviction otherwise we'd not be able to put these beliefs into practise.
There was an interesting post in this thread stating that the tape was necessary, and gave an example of one particular possible turn in crude that was 'noticed' on the tape. Well I hope the poster doesn't really mean 'necessary' because although I'm happy to believe it can be helpful and may improve your bottom line, I can guarantee you that it is not necessary, at least in most markets I've traded.
Dionysus I believe I read that you wouldn't trade on DOM alone (I don't know if you were talking about all markets or just some). Given that, would it be reasonable to conclude from that statement, that the edge provided from DOM alone, is near enough nil, or at least not enough to overcome commissions? And that it really only becomes beneficial to your edge when attached to some context from the charts? I'm aware that in a system that relies on several things, it can be very hard to determine exactly how important each part is, as they could be complementary, but would you guess that the DOM is providing more to your edge, or the chart reading context. From your many of your posts it comes across that you consider the tape reading the most important, but if I am correct that you wouldn't trade DOM alone, then perhaps it's the other way around.
I would not trade DOM alone on the ES. I will admit to trading treasuries occasionally and for that I do use the volume profile, which is on the DOM (check out XTrader).
It's all to do with context. The Treasuries are unique in that they are ultra thick and not very volatile. You can get context from the profile.
The ES is very different. It has a tendency to put in major intraday swings on days with 'normal volume'. The position of those swings is pretty important as is the general size of the pullbacks. From this, you get bias and rough-cut estimate of where to enter.
Give that 50% of the edge.
Then the DOM. That tells you if what you expect to happen is actually happening. There's your other 50%.
If you take something like an iceberg order (I probably mentioned this). If you see an iceberg order being executed on the offer in an upward market, you better not go short. It will NOT be the end of the trend 9 out of 10 times. On the other hand, if you are pulling back in an uptrend and you see an iceberg being executed on the bid, well that will stop the pullback.
So - the chart gives you context and the DOM tells you if you can take the trade and where exactly to take it.
A lot of people say "The DOM is useless because of al the fake orders". The thing is -why are people placing those fake orders? For fun or because they benefit from it? Placing spoof orders is a dangerous game. If someone hits you, you MUST honor the trade. People take these risks for a reason. At times, you can see the spoofing and understand why its being done.
