S&P 500 - Inter Market Analysis

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FEds hawkish rhetoric to be backed up by rate hike on wednesday, how will markets react?

Weekly = doji = reversal

Daily = doji = exhaustion

60 mins = resistance at 2377-2383 gap fill

10 - resistance at 2377

 

[Pat494]

I think those dojis may work out and probably down for this coming week.

:smart:

 

[tomorton]

I have hammers on daily and weekly, in clear uptrends. There is a doji on the monthly but we're only 10 days into March. Market economists and commentators have been 90% convinced for some time there will be a rate cut this week.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

in order for the S&P 500 to flush & nail a potential 5-10% reversal we need a bearish pattern on the Russell 2000

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

BUT we have the VIX into a double bottom?

break of this bearish channel = big spike on VIX = S&P 500 gets hammered


eye balls on the VIX

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Art Cashin warns that there’s something ‘disturbing’ happening in the market http://cnb.cx/2njpaue

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Fri 11th March 2017 $SPY $SPX #ES_F $ES_F #technicalanalysis #fundamentalanalysis

The index failed to build on post Yellen gains as she was perceived as being less hawkish, the daily chart held the fib 75% resistance. US economic data came in line thereby helping stabilize risk at 2378 support.

Resistance is seen at 2383 , 2390...not to forget gap fill above at 2396.

If we break support at 2378, then 2374 , 2366 gap fill is next.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Remains bearish going into Monday 20/3/2017

S&P 500: Remains bearish going into Monday 20/3/2017

Weekly = doji = exhaustion

Daily = bearish provided we remain < Fib 75%

60 mins -
support at 2376 , 2365 gap fill , 2355
resistance at 2390 , 2396 gap fill

Can we close that gap above at 2396 or do we close the gap below at 2365 ? I will be inclined to go for 2365 gap fill.

10 mins - support at 2378 , 2374, then gap fill at 2365 .

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017

S&P 500: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017

US equities hit due to 1. Financial hurt due to interest rates/profitability 2. Fiscal stimulus delay

"Financials were pressured both by worries that a heated debate on Capitol Hill over healthcare legislation will delay business-friendly initiatives and by a flattening yield curve, said Ian Winer, head of equities at Wedbush.

Goldman Sachs equities analysts noted that if the House of Representatives was unsuccessful in passing healthcare legislation on Thursday, “stocks may start to reflect impatience about the timing of policy delivery, having made a ‘down payment’ already in multiples”. The legislation would still need to pass the Senate, seen as a bigger hurdle.

Looking at fundamentals, a record proportion of investors are now concerned that stocks globally are overvalued, with the US seen as the most expensive, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey released on Tuesday. Indeed, earlier this month, the S&P 500′s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio hit its highest level since 2004."

Daily : into support after closing the gap at 2351.

60 mins - horizontal support

10 mins - falling contracting wedge . Exceeded pivot S3, RSI and Stochastics oversold= bounce expected.

Conclusion : I will look to play the bounce up to 2360-2370.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Fri 24th Mar 2017

US equities failed to hold onto gains as expectations of the health care bill being passed dropped drastically after it was postponed.

"Investors and traders in stocks and other financial markets are focused on a postponed House vote to repeal Obamacare, convinced its eventual outcome will set at least the near-term direction for a variety of assets.

Stocks dipped into negative territory late Thursday to finish in negative territory after House Republican leaders delayed the vote, which had been planned for later in the day, as President Donald Trump and his congressional allies continue to lobby conservative Republicans for support." via Marketwatch.com

10 mins - support seen at 2342 and 2336 and is expected hold given the healthcare bill is passed

60 mins - resistance held at 2359, next resistance above at 2370

Daily - consolidating within the bearish candle ....bear flag in motion if the healthcare bill fails to pass.

Conclusion: I will continue to play off 2342 and 2336 and buy any dips.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Tues 28/3/2017

S&P 500: Trading plan for Tues 28/3/2017

S&P 500 certainly shook off the Trump trade failure bouncing from a pivot low of 2322, it moved +22 handles higher to 2344 gap fill. So we are back to neutrality given fridays close over came the initial risk aversion given the failure of the health care bill to pass with enough votes.

"That's an impressive turnaround in two hours. There's no news behind it, just a market that's struggling to handicap US politics. Some parts of the market are losing faith in Trump's administration; others are still optimistic on taxes and regulation. A theme we've seen over and over is that international investors are skeptical but US investors are more immune to the dysfunction in Washington and can look past it."

Daily chart indicates gap fill below at 2316.

60 mins - lower lows and lower highs remain with Fib 61% resistance . If we fail to hold 2344, then 2355-58 is the next level to watch.

10 mins - gap fill resistance for now at 2344.

Conclusion: I expect gap fill resistance at 2344 to hold given that investors have lost faith in the reflation trade, lower low to ensue if we fail to hold 2322 support.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Thurs 30/3/2017

S&P 500 hit a pivot low of 2353 on hawkish FED rhetoric/asian equities weakness, it subsequently bounced and never looked back as investors seem fixated on the TRUMP trade via fiscal stimulus hopium. Stronger home sales and EU equities testing new year highs helped keep sentiment bullish as the index tested double top at 2363.

Daily chart : into Fib 61% resistance , expecting a lower high

60 mins - 200 MA and diagonal trendline resistance

10 mins : intraday double top at 2363 for now

Conclusion: provided we hold 2363 , we should test 2353 and 2344 support. If we break 2363 then Fib 75% resistance expected at 2370-2373.

 

[NVP]

Hey there

Are you going to show inter market analysis and insights correlations and relationships in multiple,markets or stick to just equities?

That's not inter market analysis ?

N

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Hey there

Are you going to show inter market analysis and insights correlations and relationships in multiple,markets or stick to just equities?

That's not inter market analysis ?

N

I can but then I fear this thread will be too congested.

i will certainly share more inter-market relationships going forward

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500: Trading plan for Monday 3/4/2017

S&P 500 registered a topping tail at Fib 61% resistance on Friday as the Nikkei sold off sharply overnight on negative comments from Trump regarding a trade review with each country.

"U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders on trade deficits and import duty evasion are a sign that Washington plans to move away from free trade and international agreements, German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said on Saturday."

This is negative for global growth as it inevitably leads to a trade war, therefore expect further bearish price action in the weak ahead.

10 & 60 mins chart held key resistance at 2370. Watch out for test of support at 2358, 2335, 2325.



Game plan : I will look to initiate shorts and target support levels below, 2352 will be the first target.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Inter-market analysis arguments to support my bearish bias going into next week

Fundamentals = Trump trade failure as protectionism fears are reignited

Germany criticizes Trump orders on trade deficits, import duty evasion http://reut.rs/2nKHWx9 via @Reuters


VIX = holds double bottom hence reversal in S&P 500 expected

H&S formation in play on Russell 2000 as it registers a DOJI holds resistance = S&P 500 lower

FTSE 100 = H&S formation = S&P 500 lower

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500 breakdown

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Top 3 sectors in US equities = putting in a pivot top/reversal pattern ?

Esp financials with H&S formation brewing given Yellen not so hawkish after all = yields dropping = hurting bank profits

Tech and health care = top heavy

hence S&P 500 holding Daily chart @ Fib 61% = topping tail on friday

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

i prefer to keep it simple and easily digestible for readers on this thread

I fear if it gets too complex people may switch off

Either way more than happy to divulge upon my analysis with greater detail when I can.

I trade based on an observation of 30-50 variables at one time across bonds, equities, FX and commodities. If I were to share each and every chart/analysis on every variables it would consume too much of my time

I am a trader first .....analyst/commentator afterwards.

I must dedicate more of my time towards observation/analysis/trading .

Good night to all

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

S&P 500 registered a topping tail at Fib 61% resistance on Friday as the Nikkei sold off sharply overnight on negative comments from Trump regarding a trade review with each country.

"U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders on trade deficits and import duty evasion are a sign that Washington plans to move away from free trade and international agreements, German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said on Saturday."

This is negative for global growth as it inevitably leads to a trade war, therefore expect further bearish price action in the weak ahead.

10 & 60 mins chart held key resistance at 2370. Watch out for test of support at 2358, 2335, 2325.



Game plan : I will look to initiate shorts and target support levels below, 2352 will be the first target.

Targets hit on shorts

Analysis worked like clockwork :smart: