DAX 30 - Inter Market Analysis

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Draghis hawkish stance + Political uncertainty in EU via LePen + potential trade war vs USA = Dax looks very top heavy


Daily = double top

weekly = no-mans land

60 mins = potential for H&S formation

10 mins = base at 11930

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Draghi Outlook Snaps Euro Interest-Rate Bears Out of Hibernation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-euro-interest-rate-bears-out-of-hibernation via @markets

 

[TEAMTRADER]

Interesting - here is my take on the Dax.
Get ready to sell
TEAMTRADER

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Dax 30: Trading plan for Fri 17th march 2017 $DAX $FDAX #technicalanalysis #funda

German DAX 30 spiked higher along with Nasdaq 100 break out past 5400, but it was capped at upper channel resistance on daily chart. The Daily chart is indicating a rising contracting wedge pattern which is bearish exhaustio, therefore be wary of a sharp reversal.

The EUR/USD has remained above 1.07 which is hurting exports and forces Draghi to accept the status quo given his last message was interpreted as hawkish. The longer the EURO remains strong given policy divergence as Yellen did a complete U-turn last night, EU/UK equities will feel the pressure given that international trade is a zero sum game, currency wars are in full swing.

10 mins chart has unfilled gap below at 12,000.

60 mins chart must hold 12,060 breakk out retest otherwise the bears will take control.

Weekly chart is in no-mans land.

Conclusion: provided the EURO remains strong and Nasdaq shows weakness along with MDAX 50 then expect the DAX to reverse and close the gaps below.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Dax 30: Trading plan for Mon 20/3/2017 $DAX $FDAX

DAX 30 is expected to be hurt by protectionist fears post G20 + ECB hawkish stance via Praet/Nowotny + EURO strength is hurting exports

"but the ECB's Nowotny managed to get our attention. Praet said the outlook is now better than it has been in many years and Nowotny said a rate increase may be on the way. He also said the deposit rate/refi rate corridor could narrow."

Weekly = no mans land , next resistance at 12400

Daily - rising contracting wedge = bearish

60 mins = H&S formation in play

10 mins - resistance seen at 12120, 12160. Support seen at 12010 gap fill .

Conclusion : all eyes on the H&S formation on 60 mins chart

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

#Dax 30: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017 $DAX $FDAX #technicalanalysis #funda

Dax 30: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017

DAX 30 initially opened higher on Macron being perceived as victorious over LePen in the head to head TV debate, but that euphoria quickly faded when US equity market came on line. EU equities have shaken off hawkish rhetoric from ECB members and a stronger EURO thus far with the CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 breaking resistance to new highs, only to reverse very sharply on US fiscal stimulus concerns.

Daily : Support seen at 11920, if that fails to hold then support seen at 11840

60 mins- must be weary of the H&S formation target of 11850 = gap fill.

10 mins - extremely oversold as we have surpassed pivot S3 , RSI and stochastic oversold.

Conclusion : I will be looking for a bounce to 12040...

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Dax 30: Trading plan for Fri 24th Marcch 2017

Dax 30 certainly enjoyed a stellar rally today after it shook off terror concerns in London and political uncertainty in the US given the healthcare vote. German consumer confidence cam ein weaker but that failed to deter the spike higher to pivot R3 resistance on the 10 mins chart.

60 mins chart now shows resistance at 12040 .

Daily chart is now into lower high at Fib 61% resistance .

Conclusion: I will be looking for weakness tomorrow as the healthcare bill has been delayed until monday potentially. The support for Trump is on the wane...

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Dax 30: Trading plan for Mon 27/3/2017

DAX 30 moved higher on stronger PMI readings in the EU confirming growth remains firmly entrenched. The counter argument is that stronger growth and inflation dictates hawkish ECB hence EURO remains strong, but a stronger EURO hurts exports and reduces the monetary stimulus affect.

The question we must ask after Trump failed to pass the health care bill on friday, can EU growth maintain the EU equity rally or will hawkish ECB and lack of stimulus via Trumps tax plan trigger a major sell off next week?

10 mins - double top resistance 12090

60 mins - resistance seen at 12100

Daily - Fib 75% resistance expected to hold

Weekly - Doji candle indicates exhaustion ....reversal coming.

Conclusion: I will be working off 12100 resistance to short the index down to 12000-11900.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Dax 30: Trading plan for Tues 28/3/2017

German index shook off the Trump trade failure which hurt risk in asia overnight after stronger IFO data. EUR/USD initially tested buyers above 1.09 after an ECB member reiterated hawkish comments arguing for a change in policy going forward. Once US equities came online at 14.30 we never looked back as we thrust higher towards gap fill at 12060.

Daily chart : looking for the right shoulder on the H&S formation.

60 mins - in no-mans land.... Gap fill resistance at 12060 , resistance at 12080, 12110.

10 mins - resistance seen at 12010, 12050, 12065, 12085 .

Conclusion: I will look to play off resistance at 12060.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

#Dax 30: Breaks 12160 and makes a new year high.

DAX breaches 12160 and makes a new high led by the thrust in Nasdaq past 5400. Hawkish ECB rhetoric has failed to stem the rally in Europe as investors focus on growth going forward.

Daily chart hits upper diagonal trendline resistance.

60 mins : break out at 12160

10 mins : unfilled gap below at 12150 remains open .

Conclusion: bias remains bullish provided we remain > 12160.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Double top on weekly chart to hold .

German Dax is now testing the key resistance level on the weekly chart at 12380, the 10 mins chart has gapped higher and now remains vulnerable to being closed. ECB Coure has indicated a more hawkish stance going forward with a warning that rates will not remain this low, this will hurt equities going forward.

"ECB's Coeure: Hopes That EZ Govt Realise That Rates Won’t Stay At Current Levels - RTRS"
Political uncertainty remains given French election.

"Opinionway Poll – 1st Round: Le Pen 25 (+1), Macron 24 (Unch), Fillon 19 (Unch) - 2nd Round: Macron, Le Pen 63/37, Fillon, Le Pen 58/42"



A stronger EURO will hurt exports along with Trumps comments regarding its trade deficit vs Germany.

Weekly chart resistance will keep a cap on gains.

10 mins chart has unfilled gap below at 12310, whilst 60 mins chart indicates gap fill at 12150.Watch out below

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for Tues 04/03/2017

DAX 30 has held weekly double top therefore the pivot is in for now in my opinion until we take out the pivot high today at 12375. If we break 12375 then the bulls are back in control , until then I will continue to look for a lower high.

Daily chart - bearish engulfing candle = bearish in control now as Trumps criticism of trade deficit vs Germany + US auto sales data was weaker hurting German exports

60 mins - we will now look to close the unfilled gaps below at 12150 and 12000.

10 mins - any retrace will be a short opportunity at 12300-12325.

game plan- look for short set ups targeting gap fill below .

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for Mon 10/4/17

DAX 30 was immune to geo-political concerns on friday as it moved higher to close the gap at 12230 led by stronger exports ,industrial production and trade data. The EURO plunging below 1.06 also helped export related stocks as the ongoing concern of Trumps review of its trade deficit with Germany had soured sentiment.
Geo political concerns remain centre stage with 1. North Korea 2. Syria dictating risk in the week ahead.

Technicals

10 mins = gap fill resistance

60 mins = diagonal trendline

resistance on dax = 12240 , 12290

if DAX = resistance = EUROPE resistance

Game plan: I will continue to look for short set ups as long as the weekly chart holds resistance and EURO holds 1.05 support along with Bunds holding resistance .

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for Thurs 13/4/17

DAX 30 gapped higher and short squeezed on stronger German growth forecast & wholesale inflation figures coming in weaker, this cements ECB Draghis dovish message and negates any hawkish arguments. The EURO remained weaker and helped exports hence DAX hit 12240 pivot high.

The resistance at 12220 has capped any gain on the DAX 30 since Thurs 6th April, this is now carving out a potential IHS formation.

Game plan: EURO strength will certainly exert pressure on EU equities tomorrow so I must exercise caution on long positions.

Support levels: 12120 , 12080.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for 18/4/17

DAX 30 expected to play catch up to Nasdaq 100 as US equities ignore weaker retail sales and focus on de-escalation of geo-political concerns. USD/JPY has stabilized thereby helping the S&P 500 hold pivot low of 2330.

"RANsquawk @ransquawk
Asia begins mostly positive following the rebound seen on Wall St; Nikkei 225 outperforms after Mnuchin comments help USD/JPY reclaim 109.00"

The unfilled gap above remains the target at 12155, with further resistance at 12165 , 12200, 12240.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for 02/05/17

DAX 30 remains vulnerable given that inflation is seen rising in the EU zone, EU inflation data came in above expectations thereby negating Draghis dovish spin. Draghi had talked up growth but talked down inflation hence EUR/USD fell to 1.2850, but fridays inflation figures certainly question that thesis hence EUR/USD moved higher to 1.2950 briefly prior to US GDP data. Draghi will be forced to entertain the idea of tapering and potentially even raise rates if inflation keeps ticking higher. This is risk negative for equities as EUR/USD is the verge of breaching the key psychological resistance at 1.10, thereby hindering exports and growth. Draghi has no other choice but to desperately talk down the EURO.

10 mins - making lower high

60 mins - no higher highs , resistance held thus far

Daily - remains bullish but we have a massive gap below to fill on a hawkish ECB

Weekly chart = double top

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for 19/05/17

DAX 30 has moved higher along with its peer in the US market, Nasdaq 100 generally dictates the move in the German index along with the EURO. Stronger inflation data this morning is expected to exert pressure on the EU indices as talk of tapering is doing the rounds on reuters.

Stronger inflation will hurt EU indices therefore expect resistance to hold at 12610-30.

Support seen at , 12560, 12500.

resistance is seen at 12650 , 12700.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: H&S formation brewing

DAX 30 has gapped higher today after US equities pushed higher overnight as the BOJ remained neutral and didn't hint towards tapering just yet , this has sent USD/JPY to 111.30 . The German index has also been helped by stronger data on auto sales

EU May New Car Sales +7.6% YoY; W Europe +6.8%, Germany +12.9%, France 8.9%, Italy +8.2%, Spain +11.2%,

Keep watching the right shoulder on the DAX as we carve out a H&S formation. I will be looking for resistance at fib 50-75% resistance . Daily chart remains an inside bar, bears remain in control.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for 20/06/17

DAX 30 gapped higher and retested double top resistance at 12920 led by election results in France.

"European equities are buoyed by the political success of Emmanuel Macron. The news that Mr Macron’s party took the majority of the seats in the French assembly was welcomed by traders, as it represents political stability in one of the biggest counties of the EU."*

EUR/USD dropped below 1.12 on the back of hawkish comments from Dudley, but oil prices are heading below $44.*

German inflation data and EU current account data will be the only economic market moving news to watch tomorrow.*

Resistance - double top on 60 mins *at 12920, if we break then the bulls are in control.*

Support below are the unfilled gaps.*

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

DAX 30: Trading Plan for 21/06/17

German DAX 30 took out previous resistance at 12920 and registered a new all time high at 12950 only to reverse sharply back down to 12790 after hours. The DAX 30 was helped by a rally in Nasdaq overnight along with EUR/USD moving lower on weaker inflation figures. EU trade balance data came in weaker and hurt sentiment along with *Hawkish comments from FED members.

Support is seen at 12800, 12760 gap fill.

Weekly chart remains bullish. Daily chart has registered a bearish engulfing candle.

60 mins resistance now seen at double top 12920.