FTSE 100 - Inter Market Analysis

InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Slides on Gibraltar debate + weaker PMI

FTSE 100 remains under pressure given Brexit uncertainty with UK accused of losing cool on Gibraltar.

"Spanish foreign minister Alfonso Dastis has said his government had been "surprised by the tone of comments coming out of Britain" about Gibraltar.

He told a Madrid conference: "It seems someone is losing their cool." BBC

Weaker UK PMI data certainly failed to help sentiment.

"LONDON, April 3 - British manufacturing lost some of its momentum last month, as export orders grew more slowly and demand for consumer goods faltered against a backdrop of rising inflation pressures, a survey showed on Monday." Reuters

Daily chart indicates bias remains bearish with H&S formation in play.

60 mins chart has support at 7320.

10 mins - pivot low at 7315 thus far today, if that s breached then 7260 comes into play.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: trading plan for Tues 4/3/2017

FTSE 100 flushed lower on weaker PMI data, Brexit uncertainty via Gibraltar feud, weaker Chinese data & terrorism concerns via Russia.

Daily chart remains bearish with H&S formation target of 6085. Support is seen at 7260- 7240.

60 mins chart indicates solid support at 7260.

10 mins - support seen at 7285 and 7260. Resistance above at 7315 , 7335, 7350.

Game plan: maintain a bearish bias until 7280-7260-7240. Once we get to those support levels then expect a short squeeze so I will reverse bias based on fundamentals.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 11/4/17

FTSE 100 finished +5 points higher today even with concerns over weaker consumer spending, a move higher in GBP, geo-political concerns via North Korea and Syria, Libor/BOE probe and Shanghai -0.5% overnight. The major concern was geo-politics as Russia and Iran increased rhetoric over the weekend, yet the FTSE 100 didn't flinch as it was helped by BHP Billiton restructuring and strength in crude Oil.

Resistance expected to hold at 7360, all eyes on the H&S formation coming into play on the Daily chart.

Game plan: Look to short provided we remain below 7360. target on downside = 7320 , 7280, 7260 .
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Trading Plan for Thurs 13/4/17

FTSE 100 initially pushed higher after Tesco reported stronger sales data, stronger wage growth and indications we will get a de-escalation of the geo political tensions via Lavrov-Tillerson meeting and China-USA-North Korea solution via dialogue. The resistance at 7400 held a double top and subsequently reversed as markets focused on de-escalation being negative for crude oil and higher than expected UK jobless claims, not to mention Nasdaq/S&P 500 showing weakness given tapering.

Trumps comments regarding the Dollar + De-escalation should help stabilize risk sentiment , therefore I will be looking for long set ups.

Support levels : 7340 , 7335, 7325, 7280, 7260
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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TA update for Tues 18/4/17


FTSE expected to play catch up to US equity rally overnight with S&P 500 up +20 handles . Geo political tensions ease whilst we remain concerned over French election uncertainty and weaker US data.


unfilled gap above at 7355 ... IHS in play on 10 mins
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Short squeezes higher along with Europe but reversal imminent

FTSE 100 certainly held 7100 support as we short squeezed higher to 7275 hitting previous support now equals resistance at 7260-70 zone. The weekly chart indicates an inside bar bearish consolidation, whilst the 60 mins chart approaches 200 MA resistance . The daily chart is into fib 50-61% retrace resistance .

Oil remains weak languishing at $49 as oil supply concerns mount given the rig count number increased again on friday. How long will the short squeeze last in EU/UK equities?

I am expecting a reversal at this juncture.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100 hit a pivot high of 7290 before reversing as it held the 200 MA resistance on the 60 mins chart and Fib 61% on the daily chart. The UK index is still subject to political uncertainty given the general election/brexit. Sterling strength is still hurting exports whilst Oil remains weak at $49, therefore expect weakness to resume on the FTSE 100 given that we are trading within the inside bar on the weekly chart.

All eyes on the H&S formation brewing on the 10 mins chart.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 02/05/17

FTSE 100 has been under pressure after the initial gap higher post Macron win due to GBP/USD strength and Oil weakness. Crude oil has held support at $48 whilst brent oil held $51, whislt GBP/USD closes the gap at 1.2970. If we can get GBP to reverse and Oil to move higher which are poised to then expect the FTSE 100 to move higher based on the IHS formation in play on 10 mins chart.

60 mins chart - into Fib 50%

Daily chart - no mans land

Weekly chart - inside bar

Conclusion: I will look for long set ups on Tuesday.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 16/05/17

FTSE 100 was led higher by Saudi-Russia agreeing a 9 month output cut as opposed to the previous 6 month cut. Oil prices led the rally in the commodity sector thereby negating weaker Chinese data overnight, ongoing geopolitical concerns via North Korea and Trump sacking Comey. Brexit and election concerns also failed to keep the index suppressed as we hit a new all time high at 7460 intraday. The index has closed above 7445 on the daily chart , is it a break out or a fakeout given the weaker economic data last week?

10 mins chart - double top at 7460 .

60 mins chart maintains its bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows.

Conclusion: 7460 is key pivot resistance, if we break above then the bulls continue to march on, if we hold then we can capitulate fast.
 

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InterMarket-Analysis

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FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 19/05/17

The FTSE looks to be leading the gains in Europe ahead of the open on Friday, boosted no doubt by sterling’s performance since yesterday’s European close. The pound showed its vulnerability once again on Thursday – albeit on a much smaller scale than seen previously – as it fell around one cent against the US dollar in a very short space of time. Given the timing of the plunge, it would seem the liquidity of the market as opposed to any particular catalyst was largely responsible for the mini “flash crash”.

Sterling has rebounded from the overnight low at 1.2890, it has now settled at 1.2950. The retail sales spike has faded thus far , the movement in sterling dictates the FTSE 100.

The index has resistance at 7465, 7480, gap fill at 7505 .

Support is seen at 7425 , 7410, 7400.
 

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