FTSE 100 - Inter Market Analysis

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
#FTSE 100: Trade set up for Mon 13/3/17 $FTSE #FTSE100 #technicalanalysis #fundamenta

FTSE 100 has moved higher this week regardless of the liquidation in oil, helped predominantly by a weaker sterling. The economic data on friday also came in weak along with weaker Chinese data , yet the index maintained its move higher.

10 mins chart indicating weakness with resistance at 7370, 7380, 7390.

60 mins multiple resistance at 7380-7400.

Daily chart indicates a bullish bias provided we are > 7315 , but fridays price action indicated a topping tail.

Weekly chart has a rising contracting wedge pattern = bearish .

Mondays trading i will be searching for bearish set ups given oil remains weak, if the 10 mins holds a lower high then expect a lower to follow.
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100 breaks to new all time highs again regardless of weakness in oil + strength in GBP due to Yellen dovish stance

Dollar debauchery = FTSE higher on commods


Weekly cahrt = upper channel resistance

Daily = break out

60 mins = uncharted territory

10 mins = exhausted on RSI/Stoch + > Pivot R3
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100 initially gapped higher along with global equities on the back of a less than hawkish Yellen, but gains started to evaporate after BOE sounded less dovish than expected with one dissent.

"The jump in the pound at noon today, when the Bank of Englandinterest rate decision hit the wires, has pulled down share prices a little.

The blue-chip index is currently up 37 points at 7,406. That’s down on this morning’s intraday high of 7,444 points, but still above the previous record close."

"The Bank of England has held interest rates at their record low amid signs of an internal split emerging about how to tackle rising inflation.

The Bank’s monetary policy committee was divided on the rates decision, with Kristin Forbes voting to raise borrowing costs immediately. Other members also indicated that they could join her at future meetings if they felt inflation was rising too quickly."

A hawkish sounding BOE is negative for UK equities therefore expect further bearish price action ahead as the daily chart put in a topping tail. Weekly chart hit rising contracting channel resistance .

We are now pivoting towards gap fill at 7370 zone. The 60 mins chart indicates a bear flag indicating a potential fake out given Brexit uncertainty.

Conclusion: I am looking for weakness with FTSE 100 dipping below 7400 soon as sterling hurts exports....

FTSE100 Index 10mFTSE100 Index 60mFTSE100 Index DailyFTSE100 Index Weekly
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100: Trading plan for Mon 20/3/2017 $FTSE

Hawkish BOE will keep pressure on FTSE via GBP strength. Also given fears over protectionism/trade wars hurting growth via G20.

"The second day of March madness in financial markets was all about the Bank of England. Forbes delivered a surprise by voting for a rate hike and that gave the pound a lift. In an op-ed, she said Brexit uncertainty has held down wages and that inflation is coming."

Weekly rising contracting wedge = bearish pattern

Daily - topping tail doji = exhaustion given stronger GBP

60 mins - double top resistance at 7445

10 mins - resistance at 7425 , 7445 . Support at 7410, 7400, 7385, 7370

Conclusion: I will be targeting gap fill at 7370 .
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017 $FTSE

FTSE 100: Trading plan for Weds 22nd March 2017 $FTSE

FTSE 100 was under pressure as soon as core CPI and RPI came in hotter as sterling moved higher along with hawkish BOE rhetoric, although Carney did attempt to talk down the hotter than expected inflation number.

Only until the US session came online at 13.30 onwards did we see the sell programmes kick as hopes for fiscal stimulus being passed through congress deteriorated given political infighting over the health bill.

Weekly : rising contracting wedge = bearish pattern as I have been arguing for the last week

Daily : retesting previous resistance = support

60 mins - support at 7360, 7340 .

10 mins - gap fill support at 7370

Conclusion: I will be looking for the bounce to 7400 if the opportunity presents itself. Carney has attempted to talk down a rate hike .
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100: Trading plan for Fri 24th Mar 2017

FTSE 100 managed to build a base and bounce off support at 7310-7300 after stronger retail sales & CBI data, whilst BOE Broadbent attempted to talk down inflation.

10 mins chart indicates we are now searching for higher low provided we hold the base at 7300.

60 mins chart has upside targets of 7365, 7400 provided we break past 7340 resistance.

Daily chart indicates 7310 is solid support as terrorism concerns have failed to break that support level.

Conclusion: provided US equities remain afloat and get the healthcare bill passed we can target 7365 and 7400 above.
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
Trading plan for Mon 27/3/2017

FTSE 100 has juggled between hawkish comments from BOE fueled by higher inflation numbers + terrorism concerns vs stronger economic data. Dow 30 and S&P 500 rally has stalled hence FTSE 100 under pressure. The fact that Trump was wounded on friday given his healthcare bill failed to pass raises doubt on his ability to pass tax reform which is risk negative.

10 mins - support at 7325
60 mins - bear flag in play thus far ...resistance seen at 7365, 7400.

Daily - Bullish channel has held support thus far ....if we break 7310 then the bears are in control. If we hold support at 7310 then the bulls can push price action higher and keep it within the bullish channel.

Weekly - rising contracting wedge remains a bearish pattern

conclusion: 7310 is the line in the sand....bearish bias down to 7310 if we pop higher, or long trades off 7310. A breach of 7310 then we test 7260,7200.
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
Keep this H&S pattern on your radar this week


tgt = 7187 give 1. Terror concerns 2. inflation concerns 3. Trumps failed healthcare bill = lost credibility and political clout for tax reform etc etc

multiple other arguments but 3 enough for now
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100 managed to hold 7260 support on the daily chart as US equities held support . Oil held $47 and stronger German data also helped negate the bearish sentiment.

10 mins chart has posted a double bottom at 7260 as mining stocks held double bottom with copper and oil bouncing off support. This support level will now be the key level defining the bulls vs bears.

Resistance is now seen at 7300, 7310, 7330, 7350.

Conclusion : my bias remains bearish going into tomorrow
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
#FTSE 100: Gaps higher to 7375 but expected to fade given brexit trigger = political

#FTSE 100: Gaps higher to 7375 but expected to fade given brexit trigger = political uncertainty

Political uncertainty regarding the trigger of Article 50 has failed to deter the rally in the FTSE 100 as it follows its EU and US peers higher. The gap higher has been faded thus far as Scotland's vote to request a 2nd referendum hurts sentiment. Asian markets failed to follow through with US equity enthusiasm therefore i am expecting weakness in the EU/UK.

Resistance : 7374, 7400, 7440.

Support: 7343, 7320 .

Conclusion: I will expect the gap to close at 7343 and potentially move lower on political uncertainty.
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100: Trading plan for Thurs 30/3/2017

FTSE 100 oscillated between 7320-7370 on Article 50 trigger. The index initially gapped higher to 7375 after US equities finished stronger overnight on tax cut hopes. The lack of follow through in asia, the political uncertainty going into Brexit negotiations and the weakness in oil caused the index to retrace and fade the rally testing 7320. It subsequently moved off the pivot low of 7320 after oil data helped crude thrust past $49.

Daily chart : H&S formation in play ...right shoulder going in.

60 mins : resistance seen at 7400 if 7370 fails to hold as resistance

10 mins - double top at 7375 .

Conclusion : Political uncertainty dominates going into Brexit negotiations, therefore risk off will ensue.
 

Attachments

InterMarket-Analysis

Active member
102 1
FTSE 100: Trading plan for Friday 31/3/2017

Brexit uncertainty reigns supreme for the Uk economy going forward with less than 18 months to negotiate a good deal. *Politics will dominate going forward as GBP weakness will no longer serve as a stimulus given currency wars will ensue*after*Trumps comments reaffirmed that today. Trade barriers/tarriffs will negate any positive affect from currency weakness that helps exports , on that note GBP has made a base at 1.24 which is risk negative for FTSE 100. Oil strength failed to help FTSE trade higher today as it finished -4 points for the day.*

Oil is now into resistance at $50 therefore expect further weakness on the index given the H&S formation in play on the daily chart.*

60 mins : rising contracting wedge*

10 mins - resistance seen at 7370, 75, 85.*

Conclusion: i will maintain my short bias given the H&S formation on the daily and look to initiate short positions from resistance levels above
 

Attachments

AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock