S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2013

[isatrader]

Excuse me but it is a theoretical trade and for some on a trend system - a real trade.

I don't think you understood my point. Which is that the pips are not being calculated as if it was a real trade. As if it's a continuous trend system as you suggest then everyone that got the direction right would still be open and hence gained 15.91 points?

 

[Atilla]

I don't think you understood my point. Which is that the pips are not being calculated as if it was a real trade. As if it's a continuous trend system as you suggest then everyone that got the direction right would still be open and hence gained 15.91 points?

Personally speaking from my perspective - the pips is more to see if the Weighted Average brings in money or not.

As excel and cut and paste is little or no effort - I thought it might be of interest to all of us whether using the same system we make pips or not.

You are right in that it is very primitive and ignores totally limits and stops and the trading range of the week in determining results.

Competition is still determined by podium points as before.

 

[Pat494]

Yes well whatever

I'm going for 1549 this week.

 

[robster970]

The discussion centres around the nature of the game:

If the game is make a call long or short from the Friday close and get rewarded for correct direction and accuracy of target then the historic rules are probably ok.

If the game has changed to being about accuracy of forecasting then the reward system is not equitable to those that are on the wrong side of direction.

 

[Atilla]

The discussion centres around the nature of the game:

If the game is make a call long or short from the Friday close and get rewarded for correct direction and accuracy of target then the historic rules are probably ok.

If the game has changed to being about accuracy of forecasting then the reward system is not equitable to those that are on the wrong side of direction.

No change in the game and podium point rules stay as before.

I've made an error of judgement and have now seen the light. Anybody know of a good optician :cheesy:

 

[isatrader]

You are still missing my point which you are using two different methods to calculate the pips though. For people that predicted short of the closing price but were correct on direction, you have used their picks as a target price that was exited at those prices. Whereas, those that predicted greater than the weekly close and were correct, got given the weekly close. So even though timsk price was hit, his was ignored, whereas Robster's wasn't. Do you see why I think it needs to be consistent at least, or how would it be useful data?

 

[Atilla]

You are still missing my point which you are using two different methods to calculate the pips though. For people that predicted short of the closing price but were correct on direction, you have used their picks as a target price that was exited at those prices. Whereas, those that predicted greater than the weekly close and were correct, got given the weekly close. So even though timsk price was hit, his was ignored, whereas Robster's wasn't. Do you see why I think it needs to be consistent at least, or how would it be useful data?

I think I've got your point just now Isatrader. :idea:

To clarify - you are suggesting - place another IF condition such that if forecast is hit take pips.

If market moves subsequently againts for weekly close - ignore loss.

I can certainly add this condition and yes it would make more sense. Is this what you mean?

 

[isatrader]

I think I've got your point just now Isatrader. :idea:

To clarify - you are suggesting - place another IF condition such that if forecast is hit take pips.

If market moves subsequently againts for weekly close - ignore loss.

I can certainly add this condition and yes it would make more sense. Is this what you mean?

Nope, that's not it. As we are trying to predict the weekly close and not hit a target are we not?

I think if you are going to accumulate the weekly pips for each person, then it should just be based on the direction and nothing to do with the prediction at all, as people like myself and robster will generally always have small wins but big loses under that system, as we are trying to predict as close as possible to the weekly close and not make an amount of pips.

So for example I think everyone that had the direction as down this week should get +15.91 pips, and everyone that was long would get -15.91 pips?

As for example ibetyou placed a short bet on Monday's open, with no stop loss or target, just a guess at where he thought the market would be at the end of the week, and so on Friday's close how many pips would he have made? (Ignoring that we are using last weeks close as the opening price of the trade of course). You have given him 0.19 pips, but if he logged into his trading account it will tell him he made 15.91 pips minus spread etc, as all he did was open a short trade and let it run until Friday's close.

Does it make more sense what I'm getting at?

 

[Pat494]

anyone got an aspirin ?

 

[wackypete2]

Many thanks to Pat, Atilla, and Robster for keeping the stats and spreadsheet going all this time.

But I think you guys are making this more complex than it needs to be. Data overload. Paralysis by analysis.

Peter

 

[Atilla]

My bad

I'm thinking it through and will revert back to as you were - so to speak.

If it's not broken don't fix it!


Will remove the pips!

 

[VielGeld]

Imo, since the WA is about accuracy of forecast, I think it would shine best within trades that were purpose-built for this.

If anyone here is into options, I would suggest demo trading whether a butterfly spread (or other strat where accuracy matters) would bring in money using the WA as basis.

 

[malaguti]

may I have 1535 next week please and good luck to all

 

[samspade79]

1529

 

[mike.]

1538 Please atilla.

 

[ibetyou]

1544 for me please.

 

[Gaffs1964]

Morning all, 1520 for me this week please.

 

[Atilla]

1536 - trend reversal for me - time to test support :whistling

 

[wackypete2]

1542

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

Since it seems like I'm the only bullish guy here, I'll forecast "up".

But in the event I'm not... 1560.