S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2013

[robster970]

So obviously as the main owner of the sheet, I have the power to revert back to previous revisions.

I can see in the revision history that:

a) Somebody has unhid all the diff columns that I did on Saturday for Q1 '13
b) They have also managed to copy the last 2 weeks of Q1 to the start of the sheet (they haven't gone missing at all).

I will remove the diff columns if they are annoying and also put back the last 2 weeks of Q1 in there correct place.

I can restrict access to the sheet to named individuals. Let me know if you want to do this and I can arrange.

 

[Atilla]

So obviously as the main owner of the sheet, I have the power to revert back to previous revisions.

I can see in the revision history that:

a) Somebody has unhid all the diff columns that I did on Saturday for Q1 '13
b) They have also managed to copy the last 2 weeks of Q1 to the start of the sheet (they haven't gone missing at all).

I will remove the diff columns if they are annoying and also put back the last 2 weeks of Q1 in there correct place.

I can restrict access to the sheet to named individuals. Let me know if you want to do this and I can arrange.

That would be three yes's from me.

If anybody wants to play with the stats they can always download and exercise on their PCs.

 

[robster970]

That would be three yes's from me.

If anybody wants to play with the stats they can always download and exercise on their PCs.

OK - am restricting access to only you now Atilla - I need you to PM me with your email address and I can then send you an access link.

 

[Atilla]

China Diapers & Samspade79 - we need your forecasts!

If you are away on holiday somewhere glorious and sunny that's understandable otherwise step forward and do your duty lads

 

[isatrader]

China Diapers & Samspade79 - we need your forecasts!

If you are away on holiday somewhere glorious and sunny that's understandable otherwise step forward and do your duty lads

I believe China Diapers quit trading last week after a particular bad run of late. See his journal http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/155976-chinas-ftse-100-swing-trades-20.html#post2101026

 

[Atilla]

I believe China Diapers quit trading last week after a particular bad run of late. See his journal http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/155976-chinas-ftse-100-swing-trades-20.html#post2101026

That is a shame as I thought what ever system he was using had merit being tops.

I never like trading the FTSE as in my early years learnt the same way. It can be moved by petro/chemicals and banks and few other news and was a real dog to get right. FX much simpler to trade imho.

Good move to leave and reflect perhaps take some time off.

 

[robster970]

I believe China Diapers quit trading last week after a particular bad run of late. See his journal http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/155976-chinas-ftse-100-swing-trades-20.html#post2101026

I think most of us have this t-shirt. Hopefully he will be back.

 

[Atilla]

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Welcome to S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2013 - QTR_2

The competition may be somewhat reduced with the loss of our esteemed fellow China Diapers but our willingness remains doggedly determined. With tenacious persistence onwards and forwards.

Wishing you all the best of luck and prosperous trading.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Looks like I called the direction wrong this week.

S&P not looking very good for April.

 

[Atilla]

Looks like I called the direction wrong this week.

S&P not looking very good for April.

Haha - join the party. Remember the old adage - show ain't over until the fat lady sings

 

[malaguti]

Haha - join the party. Remember the old adage - show ain't over until the fat lady sings

my wife is doing a pretty good rendition of balero right now matey!:clap::clap::clap:

 

[Atilla]

my wife is doing a pretty good rendition of balero right now matey!:clap::clap::clap:

Oooohhhhh, an ominous crescendo creeps up on to the global stage...

There is eerie uncertainty all around us right now. Can't put my finger on it. The news doesn't help. Off-topic but about to move into gold and will try a tipple of silver too. Paladium even.

 

[isatrader]

Oooohhhhh, an ominous crescendo creeps up on to the global stage...

The short term moving average breadth chart is suggesting the bear is gaining strength. Similarities to April 2012 in the data. Other medium to long term breadth charts looking far less bullish as well, crossing below their 10 week EMAs. See attached.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I was completely wrong this weak. Despite the hit the S&P took this week I don't expect the bears to take over just yet. I think I saw accumulation through today.

Put me in $1,567 for next week.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Guys,

Really made a dogs dinner of the first weeks calculations but I think all sorted now. Hopefully not many of you read the first write ups.

Well amazing turn around in this weeks fortunes as Wackypete finally gets to kick something taking top position followed by Malaguti and Mr. Mike. Well done to all three.

Malaguti . . . . . . . . . . . . . .WackyPete. . . . . . . . . . . . Mike.

Been a hard week but I hope you like the pic guys... Take it easy on my soul

 

[Atilla]

@Atilla - I have added Diff columns (which are now hidden) in the 2013 sheet

If you change the rules we can see a before and after although I think a quarter is not enough data for the sample.

Hi Robster / Pat,

I think you guys were right about the rules re: podium points only for correct direction forecasts.

It hit me as I was calculating the pips. That is if we give podium points for being nearest to the weekly close despite wrong direction, what we will get is rewarding forecasts for losing pips.

So there could be someone who has made +10 pips and another person who has lost -5 pips and they would be rewarded.

For this reason I would like to slap my wrists and reverse the point calculations.

This week hasn't made any difference to podium points but could well do for future weeks.

Hence, I would like to propose rewind. I know Isatrader approved of change but using democratic voting; I make the new count 3-1 so I think we need more convincing.

My apologies Isatrader and rest of you for creating this noise but lesson learnt from me.

 

[isatrader]

No worries, I'm fine with whatever you decide. It was a suggestion for discussion, so I'm not attached to it if you don't think it's the right thing to do.

But I don't understand the purpose of the pips in this? As we are not aiming for a target to be hit, we are aiming to predict the weekly close. Which tends to be a median figure, and so the pip amount seems irrelevant, as it's not a trade.

 

[Atilla]

No worries, I'm fine with whatever you decide. It was a suggestion for discussion, so I'm not attached to it if you don't think it's the right thing to do.

But I don't understand the purpose of the pips in this? As we are not aiming for a target to be hit, we are aiming to predict the weekly close. Which tends to be a median figure, and so the pip amount seems irrelevant, as it's not a trade.

It is simply to see in pips if the system/WA & players makes money.

As we have data building up - thought I'd put it to some use.

 

[isatrader]

It is simply to see in pips if the system/WA & players makes money.

As we have data building up - thought I'd put it to some use.

But the market doesn't care if you guessed the direction at the close of the week correctly, as you place a trade at a point in time (which would be the open of the following week I'm assuming for this) and then it can swing in both directions and would depend on where your stop loss was. For example your pick at 1571 was reached on 2nd April, yet you've given yourself -15.91 pips, instead of +1.81, which you would have got if it was a trade with a target. Although, you need to minus the spread and the trade would need to be entered at the open on Monday, as you can't go back in time and enter on the previous Friday's close. So hence I don't see the purpose of the pips, as they don't measure a trade, and if it was a trade to get the most pips then we wouldn't be trying to predict the weekly close, but instead the high or low of the week, and so it would be a very different game, as I don't imagine you'd put on a weekly trade to only make 1.81 points with unlimited risk.

 

[Pat494]

No worries, I'm fine with whatever you decide. It was a suggestion for discussion, so I'm not attached to it if you don't think it's the right thing to do.

But I don't understand the purpose of the pips in this? As we are not aiming for a target to be hit, we are aiming to predict the weekly close. Which tends to be a median figure, and so the pip amount seems irrelevant, as it's not a trade.

Excuse me but it is a theoretical trade and for some on a trend system - a real trade.