S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2013

timsk

Legendary member
7,059 1,861
Cheers Peter,
I wanted to go with 1,350 which, IMO, is bound to be tested within the next few weeks. However, being the time of year, the range is likely to be on the low side and I can't quite see it getting there by Friday. All of which means that it'll either blast right through it or rocket northwards to test September's highs - fuelled on New Year high spirits and optimism.
:p
Tim.
$SPX_Weekly_ATR14.png
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,037 2,678
Hi Guys,

Good to see new names coming on board :)

Start of the year and competition is hotting up already. Bet WackyPete is really getting worried now there are more competitors :cheesy:

In the absence of our Mobster Yoda I've created a new Tab with name SP-2013 (old ones renamed as 12). It may be better just to keep one file.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=5


Keep the forecasts coming...

1364 for me to kick the year off :)
 
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Pat494

Legendary member
13,777 1,388
What is to be done?

Is there any prospect of a serious recognisable economic recovery until a greater proportion of our debts are repaid or written off?

The current governor of the Bank of England seems to believe that the best hope is to force the banks to recognise properly the losses they are likely to make on tens of billions of pounds of loans to over-extended borrowers, households and businesses, and then force the banks to rebuild their loss-absorbing capacity by raising new capital.

That might represent a very speedy route to full nationalisation for Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds: private-sector investors would probably be unwilling to inject a substantial amount of new capital into these two semi-nationalised banks, which means taxpayers would foot the bill.

For the avoidance of doubt, the chancellor has already vetoed a public-sector recapitalisation of the banks. He feels, I am told, that it would be career suicide for even an additional penny of government money to go into either of them.

Which leaves what might be called the Turner option, or the Bank of England writing off a sizeable portion of the £375bn it has lent the government, to give the chancellor the fiscal space to stimulate the economy by cutting taxes or boosting public spending.

Here's how Lord Turner, at the same time as Mark Carney was musing about changing the inflation target, came out of the closet on turning government debt into cash. It is a synopsis of a talk he is giving at Cass Business School in early February:

"With interest rates close to the zero bound, conventional monetary policy loses its power. Unconventional policy levers, such as QE have been deployed, but they may also face limits. And sustained low interest rates and QE can themselves create distortions and financial stability risks.

"Two questions now need to be considered: (i) whether the target of monetary policy should change - for instance from inflation to nominal GDP (ii) whether additional unconventional tools of policy, such as some overt money finance of fiscal expenditure, might be available and required to ensure that the chosen target is met."

How dangerous would it be to convert government debt into money?

Very dangerous if it was seen to be a precedent that could turn into a habit

Perhaps a risk worth taking, Lord Turner is likely to argue, if it is a one-off injection of fuel into the flat engine of the economy.

There will be many who view any such forgiveness by the Bank of England of government borrowing as anathema.

But the virtue of stirring up controversy in this way is that it highlights that the debate over appropriate targets for the Bank of England may be to miss the point.

It is all very well redirecting the Bank of England from one target to another, but that's pretty fatuous if the Bank of England doesn't have any bows or arrows.

The problem may not be the Bank of England's target but whether there are really any appropriate tools available to seriously counteract the pernicious, growth stymying impact of deleveraging, the urge to repay debts.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,037 2,678
Nothing wrong with the dark side Pat if you have a torch handy :p
Good to see everyone back and some new members (y)

Here's the forecasts for start of week 1.

Based on 10 downs and 4 ups I guess most of us are expecting a fall off the fiscal cliff.

Better make sure we party hard tonight cause it may well be over tomorrow :drunk: :party::drunk:


Wishing you all a happy healthy & wealthy 2013 :)
 

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VielGeld

Experienced member
1,421 179
Welp, seems like my target was hit just today. I guess I might as well party hard tonight with my buds since this means it's going to tank by week's end.

A Happy New Year to all. :cheers:
 

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