[PORTFOLIO] WhatsthatGuy investments

[Whatsthat Guy]

TrungNL: thank you for your answer. Darwinex had a great idea for this var because only read the drawdown and the return is a mistake. Var is very interesting method to see what could happen in the future. It is not sure 100% but it is the less bad method. I trust it and i trust darwinex.

Cavalierverde: i think darwinex should allow to rank the darwins better. Yes, i know, low var is not enough. My point is: low var + low drawdown + high return. Var under 1.00%, drawdown under 10%, return positive. Do you have any darwins with these 3 filters? Thank you for your help.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Ok, good luck with your criteria.

 

[TrungLN]

Var under 1.00%

Actually, I think this filter is not neccesary.
Because we invest in Darwin , not its underlying. All Darwin are make standard risk as 6.5% and 3.25%
Ex: current VaR of underlying of PDC is 0.88%.
So, risk managers will control with the leverage as 3.25/0.88 ~ 4 times or 6.5/0.88 ~ 8 times. I'm not clear which case is applied 6.5%, which is 3.25% ^^
Make it more clear, if underlying of PDC lose 1%, the investor of PDC lose 4% or 8%. ^^ and versa.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

TrungNL: thank you for your explanation.

Cavaliereverde: it is explained in the darwinex video "why high var strategies don't survive long-term" :

i focus on learning from the youtube channel. I understand we don't have the same crieteria? But for me, as i'm discovering darwinex, i think i have to listen what they say? Please can you tell me why it is not true what darwinex say in this video? I'm a bit lost. Who is right? You or Darwinex? Both? Or no one ? What it demonstrated in the darwinex video look right. If it is wrong or if it is not true, please tell me why?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

100% agree with that video.
I am fine with everything between 1 and 30%.
Now try to find videos about how to pick good darwins.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Cavaliereverd: great! We agree on this point, low var strategies are more likely to achieve it in long-term. That's great because i am not a short term investor, i want to be quiet in my investment so for me, long term is important. So i prefer investing in low var because low var is more long-term than high var, which can burn account. Good point. Thank you for your help.

 

[Muiris]

low var strategies are more likely to achieve it in long-term

No, they are just less likely to blow their account in short period.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Muiris: i would say "yes, but only in short period" because i am optimistic person. An edge is an edge, even if it is a small one, i take it! Thank you and thank you all for your help! Good sunday to all!

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

I will come back here to say if i win 10% or lost 10% in few months! Thanks again!

 

[Gargamel]

My point is: low var + low drawdown + high return.

These are characteristics of a dangerous trading technique that has been lucky for a while and is just about to present it's ugly Real Risk(DD).

Regarding that nonsense in Darwinex video:VaR would be significant indicator if traders at Darwinex weren't influenced by darwinex ecosystem to use little trading capital at one point of their work,then switch to higher trading capital but at much lower risk... You also have poor people trading with high risk involuntary and rich people trading recklessly(high VaR) with solid balances of 10k,while they can easily replenish them if they blow-out or they don't trust broker with their whole trading capital and trade with smaller portion and higher risk,but ready to replenish account if needed from the rest of their trading capital safely stored at reputable bank...There are also cynical traders who deliberately trade with 10k account at minimal VaR and thus treat such account as Demo,while investors are exposed to risk of their mistakes.
There are also traders who deliberately manipulate VaR to achieve competitive advantage over other traders and play games with Risk Manager.
VaR is very noisy and can fluctuate a lot during a year.Some fluctuations are result of traders lack of discipline or employment of dangerous trading techique,but sometimes it is only an indicator of an honest trader that combines several trading techniques in the same account.For example scalping and here and there swing trading.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Gargamel: thank you for this explanation. It is a jungle! You are right i will modify my crietria thanks to you. I will add : amount of money invested by the darwin trader superior to the amount invested in his trading account. That’s an important filter because by doing this the darwin trader is exposed on the risk of the darwin. Great idea. Also i will modify « high return » to only « positive return ». So, it is end up to 4 criteria : var under 3.25% + 2 drawdowns under 10% + positive return + trader exposed on the darwin.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

How many darwins are ok with this filters? How could i find these darwins? Thank you

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

I add a new criteria (6 months of track record) because i understood the algorithm of darwinex need 6 months for the real var of the strategy of the darwin trader.

criteria: var under 3.25% + 2 drawdowns under 10% + positive return + trader exposed on the darwin + 6 months of track record

 

[TrungLN]

criteria: var under 3.25% + 2 drawdowns under 10% + positive return + trader exposed on the darwin + 6 months of track record

Filter by VaR of underlying strategy, honestly, I also have no ideas how to filter, except that open they, one by one.
Anw, regarding to above criterias, I suppose you already found out one.
Just, try to locate some more others.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

TrungLN: after looking for 24 hours i find how to do! Go to "all darwins", click on "set up filter" on the right of the screen, scroll down until "underlying strategy's var", click on "next", then select "underlying strategy's var" on the left of the screen, then write min. 0 max. 1, and 21 darwins will be validate by this filter. Then ranking by drawdown only 12 darwins have a low var for the long term survive in future (as explained in the videos of darwinex) and a low drawdown to see the management of the darwin trader in the past.