[PORTFOLIO] WhatsthatGuy investments

[TLN]

I agree purepipproducer isn’t normal person. What is different is he can exit pips very easy like he has unlocked something in his head. This is what i understood from the story. In my opinion, it is the reason why he is not « normal person ».

About this point, I'm same thinking with you!
I can feel the difference in thinking from him and other traders (like me).
Like we know, to make something big/outstanding, we have to think differently, think outside of the box.
After a while, I wish he could limit his word/style in debate and continue as a member of this forum.
So, we can have more discussing with more trading thinking/mind (Diversity is also good, isn't it?).
There always has 2 sides of one thing (the bad and the good).
I try to learn from both the bad and the good.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

After a while, I wish he could limit his word/style in debate and continue as a member of this forum.
So, we can have more discussing with more trading thinking/mind (Diversity is also good, isn't it?).

We can be better traders but we cannot change our personality.
He was behaving exactly as 4 years ago when he was banned from the old community.
We are all different, in age, nationality, experience, trading style and expectations but we are able to discuss without insulting each other.
His position of: "I am the only trader in the world everyone else is an idiot/loser" isn't the right way to partecipate public forums.

 

[FXforfun]

I feel a little of bitter arguments here as anything related to 'Pure pip producer'. He's a controversial man, personally I like his funny style, but I don't like so much when any post distorts any time he's mentioned.
Any investor should focus on maximum return and minimum Drawdawn, right? Some of the comments here suggest that should be a bad advice. Well, if our goal is to win money I can't think on any better advice.

Problem is that Darwins with short time and/or small number of trades are statistically insignificant to make any conclusion. I wouldn't trust them unless the trader behind could expose similar Darwins with statistical significance and success (even so I'd choose his other Darwins).
Another problem is that ANY strategy with linear growth more sooner than later will crush because it's overoptimized, martingalled, doesn't use stoploss and various other reasons that I don't care too much. Eventually they crush no matter what. That's one of the very few certainties of this business, these systems vanish with time and I've seen that usually the trader behind come back again with a renewed holy grial. Hundreds of examples on MQL, no need to put names surely the most veterans traders could think on several examples.

It can take a month, it can take a year but they crush for sure. Golden rule. If you are a gambling investor Ok; you can win a lot of money. If you look for consistency and long time survival it's a death wrong path. Not an opinion, it's a fucking fact.

Some equitys are really appealing but any of these perfect equities pass neither the basic filters neither survive more than 1-2 years on the best of luck.
On this sense I reckon that D-Score makes a good job to prevent a naive investor.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Any investor should focus on maximum return and minimum Drawdawn, right? Some of the comments here suggest that should be a bad advice. Well, if our goal is to win money I can't think on any better advice.

The point is that you dont' make money with past return and you dont' lose money with past drawdown, so my priorities are different.

1. significance of the results (as you mentioned)
2. robustness of the strategy
3. honesty of the trader

 

[Muiris]

Any investor should focus on maximum return and minimum Drawdawn, right? Some of the comments here suggest that should be a bad advice.

Another problem is that ANY strategy with linear growth more sooner than later will crush because it's overoptimized, martingalled, doesn't use stoploss and various other reasons that I don't care too much. Eventually they crush no matter what. That's one of the very few certainties of this business

ermm.....

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Good morning,

I study darwinex with youtube videos. I like the debate about what you say for the high return, low drawdown, linear equity growth etc. But the most important isn’t the low var for my money in the future? Let’s make it more simple. Darwinex said it is the « Value at Risk » the most important. The lower is the var, the safer is my money in the future. In this video: https://youtu.be/L_EZQhLrwAU Then come the drawdown. If a darwin trader has a low var and a low drawdown in the same time this is important, because it is an evidence of a talented management, from the point of view of darwinex, which is my point of view now as darwinex convinced me. Then if we add a good return to the low var and the low drawdown, my money is in not a bad situation. The darwin trader who is low var, low drawdown and high return is the best for the money in the future. This what darwinex explain or i mistake? The darwinex risk algorithm would intervene very quickly with a low var than with a high var because the var is more sensitive when it is low than when it is high:

That’s what i understood from my new eyes (2 months). Maybe i mistake somewhere? That’s darwinex point of view, maybe they’re wrong? Of course if i look to high return only it is money losing. Of course if look to drawdown only it is money losing also. But if the filter low var is first on the list, it is less money losing because var is the risk in the future and drawdown and high return are the past. Let me know what think about that. 1st filter) low var. The lower is the var, the better is the darwin trader. Thank you.

 

[LokshinTrader]

Just, jump into his Darwinians (he has 4 XRT, CTA, KIT, EON) and try to analyze...

Link?

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

I have again an other question! Sorry! Someone can tell me how i can "rank" the darwins by var? From the lower to the higher. I look but i don't find how to do. Thanks for help.

 

[TLN]

Let me know what think about that. 1st filter) low var. The lower is the var, the better is the darwin trader. Thank

I guess you mention about VaR of underlying strategy of a Darwin. (Because all Darwin are standardise as VaR 6.5% and 3.25%.
So, let's talk about VaR of underlying strategy.
Your filter is not enough.
VaR value should be evaluated with the return of underlying strategy.
Because, lower VaR is very easy to realize. (Just deposit 10000$ and trade with 0.01lot only. The VaR will be surely very small, and resutl in the return also small).
So the great trader is the one has low VaR but larger return comparing with that VaR.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

You can't, and by the way low var has nothing to do with good trading.
Too low var means only there is nothing at stake.

The guide that I linked has been written by Javier Colon, one of the founder of Darwinex.
Wher is it written that low var is good trading?
Javier Colon provides also adarwin ULI that is pretty good and work at high var.
The var of the underlying strategy is one of the least important things.
Given your short experience I suggest you to focus on high DScore and long trackrecords.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

TrungNL: thank you for your answer. Darwinex had a great idea for this var because only read the drawdown and the return is a mistake. Var is very interesting method to see what could happen in the future. It is not sure 100% but it is the less bad method. I trust it and i trust darwinex.

Cavalierverde: i think darwinex should allow to rank the darwins better. Yes, i know, low var is not enough. My point is: low var + low drawdown + high return. Var under 1.00%, drawdown under 10%, return positive. Do you have any darwins with these 3 filters? Thank you for your help.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Ok, good luck with your criteria.

 

[TLN]

Var under 1.00%

Actually, I think this filter is not neccesary.
Because we invest in Darwin , not its underlying. All Darwin are make standard risk as 6.5% and 3.25%
Ex: current VaR of underlying of PDC is 0.88%.
So, risk managers will control with the leverage as 3.25/0.88 ~ 4 times or 6.5/0.88 ~ 8 times. I'm not clear which case is applied 6.5%, which is 3.25% ^^
Make it more clear, if underlying of PDC lose 1%, the investor of PDC lose 4% or 8%. ^^ and versa.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

TrungNL: thank you for your explanation.

Cavaliereverde: it is explained in the darwinex video "why high var strategies don't survive long-term" :

i focus on learning from the youtube channel. I understand we don't have the same crieteria? But for me, as i'm discovering darwinex, i think i have to listen what they say? Please can you tell me why it is not true what darwinex say in this video? I'm a bit lost. Who is right? You or Darwinex? Both? Or no one ? What it demonstrated in the darwinex video look right. If it is wrong or if it is not true, please tell me why?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

100% agree with that video.
I am fine with everything between 1 and 30%.
Now try to find videos about how to pick good darwins.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Cavaliereverd: great! We agree on this point, low var strategies are more likely to achieve it in long-term. That's great because i am not a short term investor, i want to be quiet in my investment so for me, long term is important. So i prefer investing in low var because low var is more long-term than high var, which can burn account. Good point. Thank you for your help.

 

[Muiris]

low var strategies are more likely to achieve it in long-term

No, they are just less likely to blow their account in short period.

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

Muiris: i would say "yes, but only in short period" because i am optimistic person. An edge is an edge, even if it is a small one, i take it! Thank you and thank you all for your help! Good sunday to all!

 

[Whatsthat Guy]

I will come back here to say if i win 10% or lost 10% in few months! Thanks again!

 

[Gargamel]

My point is: low var + low drawdown + high return.

These are characteristics of a dangerous trading technique that has been lucky for a while and is just about to present it's ugly Real Risk(DD).

Regarding that nonsense in Darwinex video:VaR would be significant indicator if traders at Darwinex weren't influenced by darwinex ecosystem to use little trading capital at one point of their work,then switch to higher trading capital but at much lower risk... You also have poor people trading with high risk involuntary and rich people trading recklessly(high VaR) with solid balances of 10k,while they can easily replenish them if they blow-out or they don't trust broker with their whole trading capital and trade with smaller portion and higher risk,but ready to replenish account if needed from the rest of their trading capital safely stored at reputable bank...There are also cynical traders who deliberately trade with 10k account at minimal VaR and thus treat such account as Demo,while investors are exposed to risk of their mistakes.
There are also traders who deliberately manipulate VaR to achieve competitive advantage over other traders and play games with Risk Manager.
VaR is very noisy and can fluctuate a lot during a year.Some fluctuations are result of traders lack of discipline or employment of dangerous trading techique,but sometimes it is only an indicator of an honest trader that combines several trading techniques in the same account.For example scalping and here and there swing trading.