Payroll Turd Polishing

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G-Man

Active member
Feb 26, 2003
243
3
28
48
London
#62
It appears that the 'experts' are prediciting a range of 145 to 310, so I expect someone out there will get it right.

My money is on 251, and a big push for the dollar. Cable just staying above support at the moment, (19050-60). We could see 18900 if the numbers are big enough.
 

G-Man

Active member
Feb 26, 2003
243
3
28
48
London
#64
FetteredChinos said:
145-310?? thats a pretty big spread? on a number usually around 220 odd, thats 50% either side.

wonder what would happen if we got outside that range??

been ages since a 300 point DOW day :eek:
Exactly. In other words, no one's really got a clue.
 

TWI

Well-known member
Jan 22, 2004
2,516
245
73
London
#65
Feb in past has produced upside surprises. Only thing that could count against a big number is the seemingly endless appetite from some volume players in the short end rates this week - Often these guys get it right.
I will go with 240 however as I think Cheney will be happy with something like that and not a lot comes out these days that the boyz in the Bush camp didn't put their stamp of approval on first.
 

tradesmart

Well-known member
Aug 24, 2002
1,286
22
48
43
Peel
#66
Is it really a month ago that we last had all this excitement and Frugi Boogie was awarded the best payrolls guess virtual paper hat with all the pomp and ceremony that cyberspace could afford…….?……(not much…. :confused: )

The market is expecting a blowout number today, and will very likely be disappointed, but we’re at the sharp end of a big triangle so the wind-up factor is likely to propel even a half decent number into the stratosphere, if only because it won’t stoke interest rates too much…..

I’ll err on the bullish side with 275,000 and the Dow to close at 10964 as per my Dow Comp entry…..

Don’t forget that the Dow hasn’t really gone anywhere to the upside for over a year, and is now less than 100 points above the ’04 highs – I think that the bulls are looking for an excuse……..
 

G-Man

Active member
Feb 26, 2003
243
3
28
48
London
#76
Good report but dollar falling.

Ummmm....
 

tradesmart

Well-known member
Aug 24, 2002
1,286
22
48
43
Peel
#77
right selling this 10870..
used to be resistance.......any thoughts that it might now be support.......?

we'll see.... ;)

The U.S. economy added 262,000 jobs in February btw.....

I'm just trying to work out who gets the paper hat.......?........ ;) :confused: ;)
 

tradesmart

Well-known member
Aug 24, 2002
1,286
22
48
43
Peel
#79
nice call TS.. you gonna go back and edit your posts to make sure you were spot-on again?
tsk - shocking sour grapes........!

but I'd be feeling a bit sour as well if I were holding those underwater shorts......

and you can have a virtual paper hat as well if you really want one....!..... ;)
 
Nov 14, 2004
22
0
11
watford
#80
Done well on equities post report but £ and Euro going the wrong way!!! Can anyone explain why after a small spike the dollar has weakened on this data. Do we think there will be a reversal in 10 minutes when the yanks arrive at work?