Payroll Turd Polishing

bracke

Experienced member
zigglewigler

Don't look now but I think you cynicism is showing. Perhaps they are simply moving some from next month to this month.

It will be interesting to see if the figure is restated and also whether the trend is continued or is it a blip.

If it is not a blip and the level of increase continues where does that put the Dow etc. You can bet your bottom dollar that Mr Bush will do all that he can to keep it going until November

Regards

bracke
 

TWI

Senior member
Notice how it was also leaked, the bonds dumped a few minutes before the official release. That was damn scary....
This is just taking the piss, not only do we have a ridiculous and no doubt fudged figure but we also have insiders all at once. Next stop police state America, if we are not already there....
 

zigglewigler

Well-known member
bracke, am I really that obvious?

I remember reading somewhere about the Jan figures, that were about 120k, 20 of which was ligit people threw the turnstiles, the other 100 or so was simply carried over from Dec, as they had signed on the sausage that month but not bothered in Jan, so therefore had to employed!

This will load up too many bulls, expect downward smack soon.
 

bracke

Experienced member
twalker

Did you take the dumping of bonds as a sign to buy the market - it proved to be an excellent signal.

Have you noticed similar bond trading before ie selling just before the data issued is good, buying when it is bad and no change when the data is as expected ?

Where do you view the bond data.

Regards

bracke
 

darrenf

Well-known member
USD also started strengthening against majors a few minutes before the announcement too. Mmmmm
 

Sahil

Junior member
I trade the german bonds, and the payroll leak was not funny. A lot of ppl got seriously hurt. Bobl was also locked out for about 5 mins after that fig came out. I feel sorry for a lot of ppl!

I was lucky to have pulled my bids @ 2.25pm, instead of my usual 2.29pm. Would have been dead otherwise!

Think all payrolls up to election day are going to be volatile and revised. Bush gang need to show pick up with out rate rises. Think they will pull the stops out come September - massive payrolls of 300k+ thru Novemember
 

BBB

Experienced member
What else do you expect if you insist on trading around big releases?

Face it - most markets are manipulated.

You've got to know when to sit on your hands. Don't let the beggars grind you down.
 

Sahil

Junior member
I've been trading for a couple of years, and was used to dodgy leaks on german data and uni. of michigan stuff, so adjusted trading accordingly - but never official US data. Guess all the bastads are doing it now.
They need to sort it out. Bond markets are so liquid, only volatile enuff around big figures, so need integrity from statisticians.
 

TWI

Senior member
bracke, I just played the volatility after in the spreads, left the outrights alone. Generally however you have to be careful playing either the pre-move or the move directly after the release unless you are very clear of its bullish or bearish impact because often the market will make a countermove first to take out stops.
I view bond data via liffe connection
Sahil, Eurex had announced in the morning that they were having problems and that they didn't know what would happen if market got busy. This is why people got locked out. This happened with a couple of the gateways on Liffe too...Bad if you got caught.
I reckon that it is only good to have exit orders or orders stacked deep in the depth before a big figure like that.
 

The General

Active member
FWIW a couple of years ago (i'm out of the industry now), some analyst/sales guy came screaming into the front office shouting 'the number's xxx'. All the traders acted in accordance with what you'd expect - they made a loada money.

This was OTC rate derivatives though - seemed they were careful not to trade all through the futures hedge as not to arouse exchange suspicions........
 

TWI

Senior member
A friend at UBS used to be able to tell me figures like the IFO ten minutes before the official announcement, he said it was usual practice to squawk it to certain desks before the announcement. He also claimed that a lot of the big US banks get the same thing on the US figs.
I have not heard this from anybody else but his German figures were always spot on and always 5-10mins before Reuters.
 

donaldduke

Experienced member
People have inside information all the time, it wouldnt suprise me
to know that the big banks and others know these figures
before the official release, however they are not supposed
to act on it until it goes public.

Some greedy trader with itchy fingers probably just jumped the
gun..
 

BBB

Experienced member
But how and where do the governments get their data from in order to calculate the figures??

I don't know for sure, but I'd be surprised if the IB's weren't involved somewhere
 

Sahil

Junior member
there was some big itchy fingers for sure - massive palms actually! I did not know about the Eurex announcement. Next time I will just put in orders at least 200 ticks on either side of the market. Would have been sorted in this occasion for sure had I done.

Any of u guys trade with the big boys?
 

zigglewigler

Well-known member
Greenspan Almighty! I am sick to frigging death with this economic spin. Economics and politics live in the same toilet. The Land of the Free to Lie hits its zenith.

US employment March 2004, the facts!

Nonfarm payroll up 308k, yet unemployment rate stays at 5.7%!

8.4 million without jobs, unchanged.

In March, the number of people who worked part time for economic reasons increased to 4.7 million. Either hours were cut or they couldn't find full-time jobs.

But get this, the real way to buff up a stinking turd. 1.6 million were 'marginally attached to the labour force', these people want jobs, had looked in the last year, BUT WERE NOT COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED BECAUSE THEY HAD NOT LOOKED FOR WORK IN THE 4 WEEKS PRIOR TO THE JOB SURVEY.

514,000 'discouraged' workers, a subset of the 'marginal', didn't even bother to look for work as they believed there was no work out there for them. Currently forming an orderly queue at the end of the pier!

The 308k increase was in construction(a bubble pumped to explode), retail trade(yanks spending what they don't have, also waiting to explode), health care and social assistance(tax payers money funding employment the way the Soviets used to).

Manufacturing employment remained unchanged(real jobs that might help US actually make some money).

11,000 new jobs in the re-mortgaging business(hear the rumblings of a not-too-distant bang).

Oh, and the gov't adds another 31,000 pen pushers.

So all in all, a fantastic performance by America, now the idiots go marching off to the markets with this good news in their hands.

What could they do next for the Bush campaign? Here's a ludicrous idea, drop from the Dow some turkeys that are holding the index back and substitute them with some fly-by-night bull shite businesses that are doing 'the right thing'.

What?... They are?!:eek::devilish::mad::cry::rolleyes:
 
 
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